12/20/10…wintry and wacky

…for a fifth straight day the high on the Dow Industrials (11517) was between 11503 and 11519…an incredibly narrow range but given the lack of volume…save Friday’s surge it shouldn’t be surprising. At the other end of the range it has been between 11421 and 11451 for the same period. Now THAT is narrow! With just 7 more trading days left in 2010, accomplishing what one wants – either buying OR selling…let alone covering shorts – can be near impossible in any size.

Look at the volume on the NYSE since 12/9, the last day with 1 billion shares trading before a string of weak days,

12/10 975M

12/13 963M

12/14 953M

12/15 1.11B

12/16 990M

12/17 2.02B – highest since 6/25/10

12/20 829M - lowest since 12/6 (year’s low was 428M on 11/26)

Overnight stocks are up…presumably on a better economic outlook according to Bloomberg but it has alternated between better and worse, with the expected reaction (or is Bloomie merely trying to explain the unexplainable…is there really a cause and effect here?). Of course Sir Alan of Greenspan was chirping overnight that he sees U.S. growth of 3.5% next year…hip! hip! hooray!!! But then he never was better than an average forecaster while at Townsend, Greenspan and Co. Amazingly, he became respected for his projections while Fed Chairman…while overseeing not one but three calamitous bubbles – of which he predicted one but said he had no power to do anything about it…forgetting that the job of the Fed is to take away the punchbowl before everyone is lying on the floor in a heap!

But what does 3.5% growth mean. Not much since job growth is equal to GDP growth less 2% or so the theory (which has been the norm) has been espoused back to the days of JFK. Meanwhile in an effort to placate every man, woman, and child and small dog, both parties have managed to pull off the biggest giveaway in the history of the U.S. if not mankind, while professing to cut the deficit by every means possible but even the tight-walleted (sic) GOP is busy loading earmarks into the bills even as the media plays their solemn oaths to eliminate same! Lies, damned lies, and politicians. Good luck, America…we will need it.

Of course Obama is being labeled a one-termer even as he, taking the cue of Bill Clinton, moves centrist. TB feels he is however, not showing strength but more resembling Jimmy Carter as a nice guy who isn’t a leader…or not the kind the people want.

One thing is certain, the debt crisis brought on by poor legislation (rescinding Glass-Steagall), poor regulation (the attacks on Brooksley Born for trying to regulate the derivatives market and being persecuted by it…by the same people who have been running the show thus far), and beyond the imagination GREED, has not run its course. Note that the banks are back to sending out unsolicited credit cards again…while restricting credit availability on mortgages, etc. Like Schwarzenegger says: “I’ll be back!” The only question is how soon…it can’t be THAT far away as we have learned nothing from it! Nor do we as a nation that has lived beyond its means for three decades and only wants a quick fix…not a cure.

. . . - - - . . .    . . . - - - . . . (S.O.S.)

Dear readers: TB asks that you name one person you believe can do a better job…one you could wholeheartedly endorse to be the next President of the United States of America…as he is drawing blanks. Does this mean Obama gets re-elected by default? Also, to those of you who believe McCain would have done a better job, remember his knee-jerk selection of Palin as his running mate, and more importantly his latest remarks on ‘don’t ask don’t tell.’ It seems to TB that those making the rules are not of the same ilk as those who are serving who have grown up for the most part learning acceptance of those with a different sexual orientation. Also, they watched ‘A Few Good Men’ and perhaps learned from it. Perhaps at least they have become more tolerant. Time will tell.

Last night was memorable…it snowed all day in Minneapolis and the Vikings returned to play outside for the first time in 29 years, and a field that was nearly concrete from the cold. It also marked the return (after missing his first game in 297 consecutive starts) of Brett Favre, who has had a tumultuous year after sending out unwarranted emails. That return may also have ended his career by reinjuring his shoulder…and possibly his head on contact with the ground. After a good start the Vikes were surgically dismembered however by the Chicago Bears. Oh well, today it has stopped snowing…is currently 20 degrees and TB is surrounded in a sea of white. It’s good to be alive!

Have a great day!

TB

Trader Bill thinks it is clear to anyone reading these missives that they are merely commentaries...as he sees it...and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone other than his own. Information is gathered from sources he has found reliable, but no guarantees of accuracy are implied. These are merely observations of events in the marketplace offering in an attempt to offer a non-mainstream viewpoint. Copyright TBD Capital LLC, December 20, 2010.

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