Traderbill's Financial Markets Weblog

TB will be out of town so there will probably be no updates until 11/24…but will try to put up some summaries if possible.

Dollar Index 75.30 +.41…yesterday’s 74.67 low held Range 75.62-74.83. HHHL. The 40 day (75.98) is res, 50 day m/a is next (76.09). Further res: 200 day 80.72 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace (82.25) from the Dec. 18 low. 70.698 critical support at the 3/17/08 low. Yen 89.30 weaker by .24; Euro $1.4870 -.0036; Sterling $1.6813 +.0011.

Commodities: DEC Gold $1139.40 +20 cents! Record high of $1144 set Monday. Range $1142-1127.80 INSIDE day.  Sup the 40 day m/a ($1056) and 50 day ($1046) – and rising rapidly! The 200 day ($965) is major support. DEC Crude $79.14 +.24 – range $79.73-78.14, HHHL – rally high of $82 set 10/21….$75, tested 5 times on way up is major support.  Then $75.44, the 40 day, and the 50 day at $74.56. Dec ’15 closed $95.03 +.56. The contango moved out to $15.89… range is $27.77 on 4/7/09 to $12.67 on 6/1/09! GS Commodity Index +0.3%, CRB +0.2%. Industrials +2% (Lead +5%; Zinc +4.8%; Nickel/Aluminum +4.3%), Livestock +1.8% (Hogs +3%), Grains +1.4% (Wheat +2.2%, Soybeans +1.9%). Others: Gas Oil +1.5%; Heating Oil +1.4%; Gasoline +1%; Natural Gas -1.5%; Cotton -1%.  

Bonds: Bonds up slightly with a continuation of the flattener. 1 mo. Bill: .04%; 3 mo Bill 0.05%; 6 mo. Bill 0.15%; 2 yr 0.76% +1/64; 3 yr 1.27% +1/32; 5 yr 2.17% +5/64; 7 yr 2.85% +5/32; 10 yr 3.32% +1/8; 30 yr 4.25% +3/8; 30 yr TIP 1.83% +9/32; 5 yr TIP 0.36% +1/32; 10 yr TIP 1.15% +1/8.

Stocks: You are going to love this one: volume was BELOW average for the NINTH straight day! Over this period the average has ranged from 971M yesterday to 1.29B shares…today’s was 972M shares. The 12 month average and since the March 6 low has been 1.4B shares…bit since 11/5 it has been just 1.06B shares! Yet we are bullish??  New 52 week Highs shrunk by 180 to 356!!!, while New Lows rose 6 to 26. – +13.7:1 vs  +26.6:1. Advance/Declines were all negative by the same amount: -1.2:1 – sick! Breadth was even stranger: NYSE+1.1x, Nasdaq +14x, AMEX -1.3x. Volatility inexplicably declined: The 200 day m/a is 32.02 on VIX, 33.35 on VXN: VIX 22.32 -2.5%; VXN 22.11 -4.4%. Must have to do with options expiration on Friday!

Here you go, bulls…’splain this to me: EVERY index (save the Dow which had a high 4 points above yesterday’s high) had an INSIDE day (higher high, lower low, close below the prior day’s low)!!! NYSE Energy Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, AMEX Composite and the Russell 2000 all had more decliners than advancers and the moves were <1 pt! Couple this with the key reversals experienced last week and the market is telling you something – but are you listening. Now add in the low volume, weak advance/declines and breadth, and you have a total loss of momentum…merely an absence of sellers. There were precisely two movers of one index point in both Nasdaq indices, one mover of more than 10 (XOM +15) in the NYSE Energy Index, and none in Dow Transports or the SOX. The biggest mover in the Dow was MMM accounting for just 5.5 index points…followed by XOM with 5. the biggest mover in Dow Transports was UNP with a weak 4.5…this is hardly worthy of reporting…but it sets the stage!

Changes in index points on movers over the past four sessions:

Dow Industrials: +0.3% by 3:1. Closed 10437…10334 is MAJOR support, the 50% retracement of the entire selloff. The 6/11 high (8877), and the 6/11 high (8624) followed by the 200 day (8713) are support. Range 10438-10361….missed an inside day by 4 pts! The 40 day is sup (9917), then the 50 day (9876)…both still climbing rapidly. 8294, the 23.6% Fib retrace from the cycle lows is major support as is 9422, the 38.2% Fib retrace. Movers: MMM +5.5 vs +5;  XOM +5 vs +15 vs +5; UTX/HPQ/MRFK/WMT +4; MSFT/DD/IBM +3; VZ/TRV/CSCO +2; MCD -7; HD -5; CAT -4

Dow Transports +0.1% by 1.5:1. Closed 4049. Res is 4055.58, the 9/17 high! Range 4053-4010. Inside day. The 50 day is sup at 3877 and the 40 day at 3857. Further sup the 200 day m/a 3321. Movers: FDXUNP +4.5 vs +8 vs +5; FDX/CSX/GMT +2; R/UPS -4; CNW -2

Utilities: -0.4% by 2:1. Closed 377. Still above 386 the 9/17 high, support the 7/1 high (362) and the 7/15 high 361.80. The 40 day/50 day convergence at 375 is MAJOR RES, and the 200 day is major support at 354. Range 378-375. No movers.

NYSE Energy: +0.1% BUT 2:1 declining!!! Closed 11738, Three week’s ago Wednesday’s high is res (12037). Range 11751-11633. Inside day. SUP is the 40 day (11312), the 50 day 11250, and 9912, the 200 day. Sup also at 11000, the fulcrum from the highs. Oil Services -0.8% vs +3.3% vs+0.3% vs -3.2%. Movers: XOM +15 vs +18+14 vs -25 vs +7; PBR +6 vs +4; SU +5l BP +4; RDS +3; CVX +2; SLB -5; SII -4; CHK/TOT -3; OXY/E -2

S&P 500: +0.1% but 1.1:1 declining. Closed 1110. Minor sup is the 9/23 high 1080, MAJOR res is 1121 the 50% retrace of the entire decline. Range 1110-1102. Sup is the 40 day, 1070, and the 50 day 1065, and the 200 day (933). Major sup at 1,014.14, the 38.2% Fib retrace from the low. Psych res/sup at 1000. Critical support 666 cycle low.

NASDAQ Composite: +0.3% but  1.1:1 declining. Closed 2203. Res/sup is two weeks ago Wednesday’s rally high 2190. – Range 2207-2185. A 10 point gap from 11/9 lies beneath: 2117-2128. SUP is the 40 day m/a at 2125, the 50 day m/a 2122, and the 200 day, 1826. Movers: MSFT +2.5: CSCO +1

NDQ 100: +0.3% by 11:9. Closed 1812.  Sup at gap from 11/9 at 1733-1743. Also 1780 three weeks ago Wed’s high. Sup the 40 day 1729, the 50 day m/a 1725, and the 200 day 1480. Movers MSFT +1.5; QCOM +1

AMEX Composite: unched with 1.3:1 declining. Closed 1835. Range 1835-1819. SUP at the 40 day, 1801, and the 50 day 1800, then the 200 day at 1581. REITS DOWN 1.8% vs +2.4%. Mover: IMO +2 vs +2.5; Note BTI  +0.5 (early in the session it was -1.5) vs +1.5 vs +5 vs +6 vs -6 vs +4 vs+9 vs +4 vs +14 vs +3 vs -5 vs -7 vs -25 vs +15.5

Russell 2000: -0.1% by 1.3:1. Closed 602 –  psych sup is 600! Res is 625.31, the 9/24 high AND 623-624 – a six day top from 10/14-10/21. Range 603-597. The 40 day AND 50 day (599 – converged) are major support the 200 day at 515. Support also at 550.

SOX: +0.1% by 5:3. Closed 324 highest since 10/22!  Support the 40 day AND  50 day (317), sup the 200 day (273). Range 324-320. No movers..

This has been going on far too long…since 11/5. Is it coincidental that the entire rally was accomplished on LOW volume?  TB doesn’t believe in coincidences.