Archive for economy

6/20/13…say it isn’t so, Ben…please!!!

June 19, 2013 at 5:08 pm · Filed under financial, markets, economy, banking ·Tagged , , ,

Written last night due to an early flight to California for a memorial service. Back on Monday…hopefully. TB

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I don’t want to make the wrong mistake.” – Yogi Berra

Well the Fed spoke and if it is clear to you, consider yourself lucky. We have waited all this time…since early May for some clarification and guess what? We didn’t get it. Consequently, bonds slumped – and worse broke support levels!!! stocks slumped too but on a smaller scale….and oh boy, Friday is options expiry! You have to love it!

Since May 30th, the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…it remains elevated! It closed back above 17 on Friday then declined for the last three sessions  in the 16’s. New 52 week highs dropped to 257 vs 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 while new lows rose to 143 vs 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507 vs 363. Stocks and bonds did a double dive after the Fed statement – all closing at or near the session lows!!! Are the record highs of late May just a memory?…indices breaking thru their 40/50 day m/a’s.. Advance/Declines and Breadth were negative – especially NYSE which posted huge declines! Volume rose back to slightly above average on the NYSE but actual floor trades blew thru the average to 760M (highest since June 6th!) vs 646M vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M. The 12 month m/a had now declined to 716M!!! Just 7 more trading days until quarter end…u pick ‘em.

All indices were DOWN more tan 1% led by Dow Utilities -2.3%!!! and the ‘best’ was the Nasdaq Composite -1.1%! Our Nasdaq 100 watch continues: it fell by 36.6 points with TEN members losing more than 1 index point and only one, ADBE gaining a single point! 9:1 declining! It was led by AAPL -7.1!!! vs -4.8!!! vs +3.1 vs -1; MSFT -3!!! vs +4.1!!! vs -2.3 vs -2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, INTC -2 vs +1.6; GILD -1.8 vs +1.2 vs -1.6.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -1.4%! vs +0.9% vs +0.7% vs 0.7%vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!; Dow Transports -1.2%! vs +1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%; Russell 2000 -1.4%! vs +1.2%! vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1%; Dow Utilities -2.3%!!! vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +1.5%! vs -0.9%!; S&P 500 -1.4%! vs +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%; Nasdaq Composite -1.1%! vs +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1%; NDQ 100 -1.2%! vs +0.8% vs +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1%.

*NYSE Volume rose to an above average 3.54B shares vs 3.1B vs 3.08B from a very weak 2.91B shares (2nd lowest of 2013, 2.75B is the 2013 low), vs 3.41B vs 3.21B vs 3.41B. REAL NYSE Volume rose to 760M shares, highest since 6/6 from an average 646M shares vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M vs 692M vs 689M vs 595M (lowest since 5/24). The 12-month average is just 716M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 82 have been up and 31 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They fell to 257 vs 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! New lows rose for a second day to 143 vs 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507!!! (recent high). Recent range 49-507.

  1. Advance/Declines were negative – especially on NYSE!!!: -5.6x! vs +2.1x vs +2x vs -1.2x vs +5.6x! vs -4.2x! vs -6.4x! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.6x? vs +2.3x vs +1.8x vs -2.5x vs +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was even worse: -11x!!! vs +3.8x! vs +2.6x vs -1.9x vs +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! (recent now -11x!!! to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -2.2x? vs +3.1x! vs +2.6x vs -2.3x vs +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials plunged by 1.6%! vs 0.7% vs +0.9% vs 1.2% vs +2%! vs -1% vs -1.6%!; Brokers -0.9% vs +1% vs +2% vs -1.8% vs +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks -0.9% vs +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -1.6% vs +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks -0.8% vs +1% vs +0.5% vs -1.3% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA was 3rd most active from 5th – had been number one or two most active since the crisis -0.6%? vs +.7% vs +1.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4%….closed at $13.19 -.08 and has a double bottom at $12.97 which is critical support! GE -1.4% vs +2.6% vs +1.1%. No other financial movers – the sector remains near their rally highs but very volatile.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) is still hovering just below 17 and closed at 16.64 +.03???  with a huge range of 15.36-17.18 – an outside day! The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25. The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains above the 40/50 day (14.54/14.53) and the 200 day (14.99)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

No overnight commentary on global stocks or bonds due to an early flight to California!

Bonds were up slightly in the morning then tanked and like stocks went out very close to their session lows following the Fed announcement – valueless,  and broke their trading ranges yet again – especially long TIPS: 10 yr Treasury 2.35% -1-7/16 (recent range now 2.35%!!! to 1.63%), and the 30 yr is now 3.41!!! to 2.82%, 3.41% -1-1/4. The long TIP was obliterated closing at 1.25% vs 1.13% -4-1/2 – it has lost more than TWENTY-FOUR points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.25%! 

Gold closed higher after three straight losing sessions at $1374.00 +$7.10!- a day after the lowest close since lowest close since 5/22! It has closed above $1400 just once in the past 13 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 17 of the last 29 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1413-1418 – slipping again. Crude closed a little higher at $98.24 +.20, three days after a strong finish, +$1.01 with an intraday high of $99.01 – highest high and close since 9/17/12! It remains well above the 40/50 day …13 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.31) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.97-93.92 – crossed and rising!). 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

Holy Moly! What is Bernanke and the Fed trying to do? Destroy BOTH markets? Do they honestly believe this slow growth economy can continue without them supporting it by buying every mortgage in sight – while the banks enrich themselves at the public trough by retaining the servicing fee? Do they honestly believe that the jobs being created are solid, well-paying jobs with benefits? Get real. Pull the plug and the economy goes down the drain. Wanna bet? Please don’t push me to that, Ben…say it isn’t so?

Now Obama is out with his trial balloons for a successor. Can you believe the man is honestly considering Geithner…or worse Summers who makes Greenspan look like an apologist! The only name I see on the horizon is already on the board and would make sense for both his legacy and the Fed: Janet Yellen! Go for it, Barrack!

Meanwhile the GOP is still obsessed with sending someone to jail over the IRS scandal. This is Benghazi on steroids…fools that they are. How can Boehner and now Intelligence Committee Chairman (ignore Mitch McConnell, everyone else does) Mike Rogers (R-MI) saying someone has to go to jail! Ah, on the Snowden case, he has also – again along with Boehner decided that the man is a traitor. But politics makes strange bedfellows…consider two weeks ago on Face the Nation Dianne Feinstein (R-CA) saying that General Clapper (you can’t make that up) told the truth…or maybe didn’t understand the question…come on, Dianne…get real! But what can one expect when the real security leak…or embarrassment is from my own state of Minnesota, Michele Bachmann! This woman is NUTS! Yet those in her extreme right wing district…perhaps the only one in Minnesota love her. Boehner: why the hell didn’t you kick this continually under investigation representative off the committee…as long as she remains it has no credibility…zero, zip, zilch with me! …and the GOP wonders why it is losing elections? Why don’t they listen to Bob Dole while they still have a party??? Ah, but they point to their success in gubernatorial races…how about Gov. Walker (R-WI). It adjoins Minnesota has higher unemployment lower pay and Walker was sponsored by none other than the infamous Koch brothers. I rest my case.

Do not forget that these same Koch brothers…the 5th richest men in America…also funded the Tea Party…bet they get a good laugh over cocktail hour…like Mortimer and Randolph Duke in Trading Places…destroying peoples lives on a $1 bet. Fools! Suckers!

Enjoy your weekend,

TB

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6/19/13…awaiting Big Ben’s announcement

June 19, 2013 at 6:43 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “One and one is two, and two and two are four, and five will get you ten if you know how to work it.” – Mae West, and…

“A verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.” – Louis B. Mayer

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I don’t fear computers. I fear the lack of them.” – Isaac Asimov…unless part of a government surveillance program, right?

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Trading Desks at Wall Street’s Top Banks Seen Defying Second-Quarter Curse

*Yen Gains With Oil While European Stocks Fluctuate Before Fed’s Decision

*Bankers Face Decade Bonus Delay as U.K. Urged to Criminalize Recklessness –good!!!

*Moore to Tudor Said to Stick With Japan Bet After Best Start Since ‘09

*U.S. Readies for Peace Talks With Taliban as Karzai Protests Americans Role – get out!

*Obama Says U.S. Surveillance of Phones, Internet Strike Balance on Privacy – NOT!!!

*Obama in Berlin Shows Merkel Chancellorship Forged by Stand in Euro Crisis  

Funny thing, call it a temporizing bid but for no good reason with the FOMC announcement tomorrow but stocks rallied with the Dow closing +138 for its highest close since May 30th…must be a few people out there who feel lucky…well do ya, punk? Not me ahead of the Fed!

Since May 30th, the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…it remains elevated! It closed back above 17 on Friday then declined for the last two sessions ending at 16.63. New 52 week highs surged yet again to 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 but so did new lows rising to 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507 vs 363. The market is unable to get back to the record highs of late May…but using the 40/50 day m/a’s as a platform. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both modestly positive. Volume was steady after barely rising from one of the lowest levels of the year on the NYSE and actual floor trades slipped to 646M vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M, ranging from 595M-756M last week with an average of just 673M shares: compare to the prior week’s 792M-880M with an average of 787M vs the 12 month’s 720M. Just 8 more trading days until quarter end…what’s a mother to do???

The Russell 200 Small Cap was best performer followed by Dow Transports +1%. The rest were up 0.6-0.9%. Our Nasdaq 100 watch continues: it rose by 25 points with just FIVE members gaining more than 1 index point and none of the losers as much.85:15 advancing! It was led by MSFT +4.1!!! vs -2.3 vs -2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, AAPL -4.8!!! vs +3.1 vs -1; CSCO +2.8 vs -1.1; GOOG +3.3 vs +2.6; INTC/AMGN +1.6; AMZN +1.4 vs +1.6; GILD +1.2 vs -1.6. AAPL was the biggest loser but not even one index point!

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +0.9% vs +0.7% vs 0.7%vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!; Dow Transports +1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%; Russell 2000 +1.2%! vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1%; Dow Utilities +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +1.5%! vs -0.9%!; S&P 500 +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.9% vs +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1%; NDQ 100 +0.8% vs +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1%.

*NYSE Volume was steady at 3.1B shares vs 3.08B shares from a very weak  2.91B shares (2nd lowest of 2013, 2.75B is the 2013 low), vs 3.41B vs 3.21B vs 3.41B. REAL NYSE Volume rose slipped and remains average at 646M shares vs 679M vs 634M vs 756M vs 692M vs 689M vs 595M (lowest since 5/24). The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 82 have been up and 30 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose to 345 vs 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! New lows nearly doubled after declining  to 104 vs 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507!!! (recent high). Recent range 49-507.

  1. Advance/Declines were positive: +2.1x vs +2x vs -1.2x vs +5.6x! vs -4.2x! vs -6.4x! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +2.3x vs +1.8x vs -2.5x vs +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was even better: +3.8x! vs +2.6x vs -1.9x vs +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +3.1x! vs +2.6x vs -2.3x vs +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.7% vs +0.9% vs 1.2% vs +2% vs -1% vs -1.6%!; Brokers +1% vs +2% vs -1.8% vs +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -1.6% vs +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +1% vs +0.5% vs -1.3% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA has been number one or two most active since the crisis…today it fell to 5th but still rose by +.7% vs +1.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4%….closed at $13.30 +.09 and has a double bottom at $12.97 which is now critical support! GE +2.6% vs +1.1%. No other financial movers – the sector remains near their rally highs but very volatile.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) is hovering just below 17 and closed at 16.63 -.17 with a narrow range of 16.46-16.95 – an inside session! The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25. The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

European equities weak, Asia mixed ahead of Fed announcement; UK -0.6% vs +0.8% vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%!; France -0.6% vs -0.2% vs +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!!; Germany -0.2% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2%; Japan +1.8%!!! vs -0.2% vs +2.7%!!! vs +1.9% vs -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9%!; Hang Seng -1.1%! vs flat vs +1.2% vs +0.4% vs -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1%; Korea -0.7% vs + 0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%; India +0.1% vs -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.9%! vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! U.S. stock futures little changed overnight in narrow trading range ahead of Fed: DOW -6; SPX flat; NDQ +5.

Surprisingly bonds closed slightly better and are up again overnight ahead of the Fed announcement, but remain weak – long TIPS continue to rally but from very high yields: 10 yr Treasury 2.18% +1/16 (recent range 2.25% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.32% +5/16. The long TIP remains well above 1%! Currently 1.13% +7/16 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.272% 3 mos., 0.409% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.54% -3; UK 2.12% -2; France 2.10% -2, Italy 4.29% +1; Spain 4.52% -2; Portugal 6.01% +1; Greece 9.84% +4 vs 9.80% vs 9.77% vs 9.86% vs 10% vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! Recent range: 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed weaker for a third day with a low of $1360.20 – lowest since 5/22 – at $1366.90 -$16.90!- also lowest close since 5/22! It has closed above $1400 just once in the past 11 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 17 of the last 28 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1414-1423 – slipping again. Overnight it is a tad higher at $1367.60 +.70. Crude closed a little higher at $98.44 +.67) two days after a strong finish, +$1.01 with an intraday high of $99.01 – highest high and close since 9/17/12! It remains well above the 40/50 day …12 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.31) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.75-93.84 – now crossed and rising!). Overnight it is $98.52 +.08.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

Not going to even bother saying anything today…not with the Fed announcement forthcoming. If you want to see anything of import see Tuesdays column…otherwise TB is burned out…for now.

Cheers!

TB

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6/18/13…TBTF or TITF?

June 18, 2013 at 8:48 am · Filed under financial, markets, economy, banking ·Tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “If penicillin is such a wonder drug, how come it can’t cure bread mold?” – Ron Smith

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Never trust a computer you can’t throw out a window.” – Steve Wozniak, one of the founders of Apple…TB would add those that can be thrown out if you believe in GIGO (Garbage In, Garbage Out) – TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Obama Says Bernanke Has Been at Fed Longer Than He Wanted, Signalling Exit – back at ya Barrack. Let’s throw everyone out and start over…couldn’t do any harm. TB

*Housing Starts in U.S. Rose in May to 914,000 Annual Rate as Permits Gain – but interest rates while still low are rising!

*Commercial Building Slowdown in U.S. Weighs on Economic Recovery

*Consumer Prices in U.S. Climbed Less Than Economists Forecast on Food Drop –???

*Yen Weakens With Bonds as S&P Futures Rise With Stocks Before Fed Meeting

*European Car Sales Slump to 20-Year Low as Joblessness Hurst GM Demand – !!!

*Danske Slapped With FSA Order Adding $18 Billion to Risk-Weighted Assets

*Draghi Says ECB Is Keeping an ‘Open Mind’ on Non-Standard Monetary Policy

*Jeffries Second-Quarter Net Income Falls 34% as Trading Revenue Decliens

*Fewer U.S. Workers File Long-Term Disability Claims as Economy Makes Gains

*Detroit Recovery Plan Would Dip Into Retiree Pensions to Keep City Afloat

*GM Vows to Show China that Cadillac of Vehicles Isn’t Audi – but Cadillac!

*Aston Martin Owner ‘Investment Dar’ Said Asking Lenders for 50% Cut on Debt

*Abenomics for Women Undermined by Men Dominating Japan Ruling Politicians

*Virginia Loses Republican Grip of Old Dominion With Newest Voters Emerging – the night they dragged Old Dixie down…all the GOP was crying – turning from red to blue!

Another day and one that could have posted 1% gains had the market closed at the highs. Still it was an ‘up’ day…but…DOWN Friday vs a BIG ‘up’ vs ‘down’.  Since June 4th we have now had EIGHT of these cycles…with a ‘barely changed’ one right in the middle…anyone want to put that rhythm to music? This is the first one where not one single index moved by >1% by at least one index, and almost all have been with virtually every index moving by >1%! Volatility, that’s what TB is talking about! Since May 30th  the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…it remains elevated! It closed back above 17 on Friday then slipped to just under at 16.80 yesterday. New 52 week  highs surged again to 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 while new lows declined again to just 62 vs  72 vs 459 vs 507 vs 363. The market is unable to get back to the record highs of late May…still struggling with the 40/50 day m/a’s. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both modestly positive. Volume rose only slightly from one of the lowest levels of the year on the NYSE and actual floor trades to just 679M vs 634M vs 756M, ranging from 595M-756M last week with an average of just 673M shares: compare to the prior week’s 792M-880M with an average of 787M vs the 12 month of just 720M. 

We are not ‘waiting for Godot’ but for the FOMC announcement on Thursday afternoon…just a day prior to options expiry. The Fed has made a muck of the markets with their dissent which is raising volatility – fully utilized by the high frequency traders and driving institutional investors nuts with just 9 trading days until quarter end…what’s a mother to do???

NYSE Financials, and the Nasdaq 100 were the two best performers, +0.9% while Dow Transports were the only loser, -0.2%…even the downtrodden Dow Utilities rose by 0.5%! Our continuing Nasdaq 100 watch continues: it rose by 27 points with 8 members combining for half the gain, net was 4:1 advancing! It was led by MSFT +4.1!!! vs -2.3 vs -2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, AAPL -4.8!!! vs +3.1 vs -1; CSCO +2.8 vs -1.1; GOOG +2.6 ; ORCL +2 vs -2 vs +3 vs -2; AMZN/APPL +1.6; AMGN/QCOM +1. GILD was the only one to lose more than 1 index point (-1.6!).

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -+0.7% vs 0.7%vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%!; Dow Transports -0.2%! vs -0.5% vs +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%!; Russell 2000 +0.7% vs -0.8% vs +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1%; Dow Utilities +0.5% vs +0.1% vs +1.5%! vs -0.9%! vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3%; S&P 500 +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%; Nasdaq Composite +0.8% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1%; NDQ 100 +0.9% vs -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1%.

*NYSE Volume rose only slightly to 3.08B shares from a very weak  2.91B shares (2nd lowest of 2013, 2.75B is the 2013 low), vs 3.41B vs 3.21B vs 3.41B. REAL NYSE Volume rose to a still below average 679M shares vs 634M vs 756M vs 692M vs 689M vs 595M (lowest since 5/24). The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 81 have been up and 30 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose to 264 vs 170 vs 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! New lows declined again to 62 vs 72 vs 459 vs 507!!! (recent high). Recent range 49-507.

  1. Advance/Declines were modestly positive: +2x vs -1.2x vs +5.6x! vs -4.2x! vs -6.4x! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.8x vs -2.5x vs +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +2.6x vs -1.9x vs +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +2.6x vs -2.3x vs +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 0.9% vs 1.2% vs +2% vs -1% vs -1.6%!; Brokers +2%? vs -1.8% vs +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks +0.8% vs -1.6% vs +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.5% vs -1.3% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA rose by 1.1% vs -1.1% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4%….closed at $13.21 +.14 and has a double bottom at $12.97 which is now critical support! C +0.3% vs -2.1% vs -1% vs -3.8%! vs +2.1%; GE +1.1%. No other financial movers – the sector remains near their rally highs but very volatile.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) slipped to below 17 and closed at 16.80 -.35 with a range of 16.33-17.62! The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25. The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities somewhat weaker, ex-U.K, Korea; UK +0.8%! vs +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%!; France -0.2% vs +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!!; Germany flat vs +1.3% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2%; Japan -0.2% vs +2.7%!!! vs +1.9% vs -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9%!; Hang Seng flat vs +1.2% vs +0.4% vs -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1%; Korea UP 0.9%! vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%; India -0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.9%! vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! U.S. stock futures little changed: DOW +14; SPX +0.80; NDQ +5.75.

Bonds closed weaker again Monday and again overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.20% -3/16 (recent range 2.25% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.36%!!! -3/16. The long TIP remains well above 1%! Currently 1.19% UP 5/32 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.272% 3 mos., 0.409%! 6 mos. Foreign bond yields higher ex-Portugal and continue to be volatile: Germany 1.57% +5; UK 2.12% +4; France 2.13% +6, Italy 4.30% +4; Spain 4.55% -1; Portugal 6.00% -14!; Greece 9.80 -1 vs 9.77% vs 9.86 vs 10% vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed slightly weaker on a nearly parallel session at $1383.10 -$4.50. 6/11’s session low was $1364.50, lowest since 5/23. It has closed above $1400 just once in the past 9 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 15 of the last 26 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1414-1423 – slipping again. Overnight it is lower at $1374.40 -$8.70, session low $1370. Crude closed almost unchanged ($97.89 +.12) just a day after a strong finish, +$1.01 with an intraday high of $98.25 – highest high and close since 9/17/12! It remains well above the 40/50 day …just 11 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.30) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.73-93.82 – now crossed and rising!). Overnight it is $98.26 +.49…yesterday’s session high of $98.74, highest 9/17/12.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

…Too Big To Fail or ‘Too Important To Fail’ – that is the question!

In today’s The Baseline Scenario, Simon Johnson reports on a study by Goldman Sachs that found that TBTF provides no economic value and denied there is any such thing as downside protection provided by the official sector to creditors of TBTF financial conglomerates. Baseline Scenario

While it would be easy to claim a conspiracy as Johnson  points out it is more likely a group of players with the same objectives: stifle regulation and thus allow them to create the next financial crisis while enriching management…at shareholder expense of course. As Danny DeVito said in Other Peoples Money …nothing is better than OPM!

TBTF was the ‘brainchild’ of Ronald Reagan in 1985 when, over the objections of his treasury secretary, Don Regan (TB’s former boss as Chairman of Merrill Lynch), and bailed out Continental Illinois, then the 8th largest bank in the U.S. That simple move created TBTF and by extension created moral hazard for the biggest EIGHT banks in the U.S. This resulted in phenomenal growth as money flowed in from around the world for safety of a government guarantee…and domestically came at the expense of the smaller regional and worse community banks (which the Fed has long seen as a thorn in their side and tried to drastically reduce in number).

Perhaps Goldman could take a lesson and refute the Fed’s misguided conversion of them (along with Morgan Stanley and UBS). It is a disservice to the country and a liability that they be allowed to call themselves a ‘bank.’

One of the first statements out of Lloyd Blankfein’s mouth was ‘we will never make a loan or take deposits.’ Isn’t that the definition of a ‘bank’? Also, it’s interesting the Hank Paulson saw it critical to save Goldman (which enriched him) while letting the much more significant (as we now know), Lehman implode…still, I would not have done it if Dick Fuld had been allowed to remain CEO.

Then there is Stephen Friedman, former Goldman CEO and Chairman of the N.Y. Fed while remaining a director of Goldman (amazingly, it is required that a N.Y. Fed board member be a director of a financial firm). But while the debate was going on about making them a bank, Friedman was busy acquiring more Goldman Sachs stock – even as everyone else was fleeing financial firms. It was deemed a conflict of interest (seriously? …not insider trading???) and he was forced to divest the stock…wait…what about treble damages? If I was Martha Stewart I would be incensed.

In becoming a bank, Goldman had to shift its fiscal year end from November to December as required of all banks. Brokers use staggered months for their fiscal year end in order to keep liquidity from drying up at year end and thus disrupting markets. But it also allowed them to use November to ‘hide’ enormous losses and this misstate their financials. That was due to regulation not Goldman but they managed to utilize it fully to their benefit.

Lastly, this is the first time anyone took the same position I have on CIT Financial. It was more of a bank than Goldman for sure…it was the lender of last resort to hundreds of thousands of small firms and when it was allowed to fail credit dried up for many of these businesses further exacerbating the problem. Their sin: borrowing short and lending long. But it didn’t require one dime of public money to save CIT…merely an ‘obligation’ which would have been created by guaranteeing CIT’s commercial paper – they had no problem doing this for the banks which even profited by underwriting each others government guaranteed bonds…and worse, selling them to hedge funds in what was anything but bonafide public offerings – as an institutional buyer I never saw these offerings until the next day when they were grossly marked up in price. Consider that our guarantee was now costing us more and going directly into the coffers of the banks and the hedge funds they sold them to! True, none of the guarantees ever cost us money but at the time that was anything but a certainty.

Is this a great country or what?

Have a good one, y’all!

TB

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6/17/13…a rally for no reason? Time will tell…always does!

June 17, 2013 at 8:39 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “He’s so stupid he studied five days for a urine test.” – Norm Crosby

 Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.” – Pablo Picasso

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Advance With Gas as Yen Weakens Before Fed Meeting; Corn Declines

*Rigged-Benchmark Probes Proliferate in Crackdowns From Singapore to London

*Bernanke-Draghi-Kuroda’s Failure to Communicate Inciting Bond Yield Gains

*New York Region Factory Sentiment Increased to a Three-Month High in June – yawn!

*Bank Earnings Seen Buffetted as Rising Rates Lack Catalyst of Robust Growth – DUH!

*JPMorgan Joins BofA Snubbing Ignatiev’s Ruble Call

*IRS Sets Up Test Case Appeal on Tax-Avoiding Chapter 11 Sales – oh joy!

*End of Easing Spurs S&P 500 Rallies of 16% Since 1980s Amid Economy Gains – true but it PEAKED back on May 22nd…do you really believe economy is that strong???   

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the May CPI (Tuesday). We will also get the June Empire State Manufacturing (Monday), May Housing Starts (Tuesday), June Philadelphia Fed Survey, May Leading Indicators and May Existing Home Sales (Thursday).In addition, the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting on the June 18th – June 19th with an announcement on the 19th. Courtesy of Economics Advisory Service

Buy Otis elevator stock…it’s like the market…DOWN Friday vs a BIG ‘up’ vs ‘down’.  Since June 4th we have now had SEVEN of these cycles…with a ‘barely changed’ one right in the middle…anyone want to put that rhythm to music? In other words, all seven  have had moves of +/- 1% by at least one index, and almost all have been with virtually every index moving by >1%! Volatility, that’s what TB is talking about! Since May 30th  the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…so call it elevated! It closed back above 17 again on Friday. New 52 week highs rose slightly to 170 vs 159 vs 140 while new lows plunged sharply to just 72 vs 459 vs 507 vs 363. The market is unable to get back to the record highs of May 22nd…and struggling with the 40/50 day m/a’s. Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative.  Volume plunged to one of the lowest levels of the year on the NYSE and actual floor trades dropped back to 634M vs 756M, ranging from 595M-756M this week with an average of just 673M shares: compare to the prior week’s 792M-880M with an average of 787M vs the 12 month of just 720M. 

What will the FOMC decides…and what will Helicopter Ben say to Congress on his two trips up the Hill this week? He is the key to any sustainable market moves. Also, Friday is options expiry for June!!!

Thursday’s best performer was Friday’s worst: NYSE Financials -1.2% vs +2%! The rest ranged from -0.5%- 0.8% with the only gainer being Dow Utilities +0.1%. The Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1%, or 19 points with just four members combining for half the loss, net was 3:1 declining! It was led by AAPL -4.8!!! vs +3.1 vs -1; MSFT -2.3 vs -2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, ORCL -2 vs +3 vs -2; CSCO-1.1; no advancers gained even 1 index point! MSFT is a disaster giving up all gains since 5/24 and down 3% for the week. Apple has now had three lower highs and two lower lows since gapping down on January 23rd, then trading in a range of $485-395 sincde. It closed at $430.05 on Friday.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -0.7%vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!; Dow Transports -0.5% vs +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%!; Russell 2000 -0.8% vs +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%!; Dow Utilities +0.1% vs +1.5%! vs -0.9%! vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9%; S&P 500 -0.6% vs +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4%;Nasdaq Composite -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1% vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%; NDQ 100 -0.6% vs +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%.

*NYSE Volume plunged again to a very low 2.91B shares (2nd lowest of 2013!, 2.75B is the 2013 low), vs 3.41B vs 3.21B vs 3.41B vs 2.95B vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B.  REAL NYSE Volume fell to a below average 634M shares vs 756M vs 692M vs 689M vs 595M (lowest since 5/24) vs 729M vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!). The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 80 have been up and 30 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose slightly to 170? vs 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! New lows plunged to 72 vs 459 vs 507!!! (recent high) vs 363 vs 143 vs 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 49-507).

  1. Advance/Declines were negative: -1.2x vs +5.6x! vs -4.2x! vs -6.4x! vs -1.2x vs +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.5x vs +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x vs +1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: 1.9x vs +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! vs -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -2.3x vs +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials declined by 1.2% vs +2% vs -1% vs -1.6% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!!; Brokers -1.8% vs +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks -1.6% vs +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks -1.3% vs +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA declined by 1.1% and has risen by just one time in the last five sessions by 1.2% vs +1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4%….and it has a deouble bottom at $12.97 – only the 2nd time it has traded BELOW $13 since 4/11/11. No other financial movers, but…: JPM -1.9% vs +1.8% vs -0.6% vs -1.6%; C -2.1% vs -1% vs -3.8%! vs +2.1%; WFC -2%! vs +1.7% vs -1% vs -1.4%; USB -1.3%! vs +0.2% vs flat vs -0.5%; GS -1.7% vs +2.4%!!! vs -0.9% vs -2.5%! MS-2% vs -0.8% vs -2% vs -3.9%!!!; UBS -0.7% vs +2.9%!!! vs -1.8% vs -2% – the sector remains near their rally highs but unchanged over the past five years!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) regained 1/3 of Thursday’s decline and closed at 17.15 +.74 with a range of 16.03-17.26! The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25, and it closed at 16.41 -2.18! with a range of 16.37-18.38 (18th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities STRONG ex-Korea, led by the volatile Japan; UK +0.6% vs +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%!; France +1.5%! vs +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!!; Germany +1.3% vs +0.5% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2%; Japan +27%!!! vs +1.9% vs -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9%!; Hang Seng +1.2% vs +0.4% vs -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1%; Korea DOWN 0.3% vs +0.4% vs -1.4%; India +0.8% vs +1.9%! vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! U.S. stock futures also strong, but off highs highs: DOW +113; SPX +13; NDQ +25.75!

Bonds closed little changed Friday and again overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.12% +1/16 (recent range 2.25% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.31% -1/32. The long TIP lost a day after gaining more than 2 points and remains well above 1%! Currently 1.14% -1/32 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.273% 3 mos., 0.411%! 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed with no discernable pattern and continue to be highly volatile!: Germany 1.51% +1; UK 2.17% -1; France 2.07% +1, Italy 4.25% -2; Spain 4.57% +1; Portugal 6.12% -7!; Greece 9.77% +7 vs 9.86 vs 10% vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed higher but on an ‘inside’ session at $1387.60 +$9.80. 6/11’s session low was $1364.50, lowest since 5/23. It has closed above $1400 just once in the past 8 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 14 of the last 25 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1416-1431 – stablilizing. Overnight it is slightly higher at $1384.40 -$3.20 – can’t get traction! Crude closed higher at $97.85 +$1.01 with an intraday high of $98.25 – highest high and close since 9/17/12! It remains well above the 40/50 day …just 8 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.28) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.01-93.55 – now crossed!). Overnight $98.17 +.32 with a session high of $98.74, again highest 9/17/12.  4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

 I was looking at a range of surveys on the IRS investigations and the NSA ‘spying’ stories. The only significant thing…in both cases the various categories came from about 40% giving Obama no blame and 60% where the Administration was not involved.

But when you do it by party GOP is overwhelmingly convinced that Obama put them up to it while the opposite is true of the Dems…how polarized have we become? You decide. It makes me SICK! Time to sit back and wait for the rest of those SCOTUS decisions…most of which will also be along party lines…gimme a break, will ya? Oh, and the double whammy of a two-day FOMC meeting and two days of testimony by Bernanke while our illustrious elected Congress preens itself on its lack of knowledge.

 Have a great week…don’t forget Friday is options expiry!

 TB

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6/14/13…send in the clowns, there have to be clowns

June 14, 2013 at 7:58 am · Filed under financial, markets, economy, banking, politics ·Tagged ,

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: Definition of a Power Struggle: When your boss has the power and you have the struggle.” – unattributed

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I never learn anything talking. I only learn things when I ask questions.” – Lou Holt

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Wholesale Prices in U.S. Climb More Than Economists Forecast on Fuel, Food

*Currency Rates Said to Face Global Regulation in Widening of Libor Review

*Bonds Rally With Yen as Stocks in  Europe Erase Gains Before U.S. Report

*Obama’s Lost AAA Brings Falling Yields-to-Deficits as More Downgrades Loom

*Chinese Debt Auction Fails for the First Time in 23 Months on Cash Squeeze

*Wealthy Americans Revisit Hilton Head as Rebound Benefits Vacation Homes

*Singapore Orders Banks to Set Aside $9.6 Billion for Rate-Rigging Attempts

*ABN Amro Group Ordered by Court to Pay Fired Energy Bankers $1.41 Billion

*Gold Bears Return With ETP Rout in an Unprecedented 17th Week – Electronic Trading Platforms thrashing the Gold ETF’s –  dysfunctional markets…nothing is safe!

*Obama-Merkel as Cool as Leaders Come Prove Last to Be Standing Since 2009 – but Obama is proving to not have the mettle of Merkel, right?

*U.S. Agencies Said to Swap Intelligence Data With Thousands of Companies – !!!

*Syrian Fighters to Get U.S. Backing as Assad’s Chemical-Arms Use Confirmed

*NSA Leak Inquiry to Explore Whether U.S. Contractor Snowden Had China Link

Ah, it was an ‘up’ day…up bigger than the prior ‘down’ day. Since June 4th we have had Six of these cycles…with a ‘barely changed’ one right in the middle: down, up, up, flat, down, down, up…anyone want to put that rhythm to music? In other words, all six have had moves of +/- 1% by three or more indices, and almost all have been with virtually every index moving by >1%! Volatility, that’s what TB is talking about! Since May 30th  the S&P VIX has closed between 15.14 and 18.59 with a range of 14.36 to 18.60 – the 40/50/200 day m/a’s are 14.37/14.26/14.98…so call it elevated! See yesterday’s commentary for stock and bond market performance over the past five years. Is this a casino you want to wander into? New 52 week highs rose slightly from 140 to 159 while new lows slipped to a very high 459 vs a super high 507 vs a high 363…market it telling you something but not in the daily index results which appear to be going sideways – and unable to get back to the record highs of May 22nd…and struggling with the 40/50 day m/a’s  Advance/Declines and Breadth were both solidly positive – finally! Volume remains about average on the NYSE while actual floor trades remain weak, ranging from 595M-756M this week with an average for the four days of just 683M shares: compare to last week’s 792M-880M with an average of 787M vs the 12 month of just 720M  Speculation remains key, driven by high frequency trades. What will Helicopter Ben say to Congress next week? He is the key to any sustainable market moves.

Best performer was NYSE Financials, +2%! Then Dow Transports +1.9%, the Dow was the weakest link, still up 1.2%. The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.3% vs -1%, or 37 points with just 10 members combining for half the gain, 95 up, just 5 down! It was led by AAPL +3.1 vs -1; ORCL +3 vs -2; INTC +2.1; while MSFT lost 2 vs -4.5 vs -1.4, the only one to lose more than 1 index point! Tech remains treacherous and blowing with the wind.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +1.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!!; Dow Transports +1.9%! vs -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 +1.8%! vs -0.9% vs -1.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities +1.5%! vs -0.9%! vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5% vs -1.4% – now down 6.2% over the past 15 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 11.1%!; S&P 500 +1.5% vs -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4% vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%; Nasdaq Composite +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1.1% vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 +1.3% vs -1.1% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%.

*NYSE Volume rose slightly to an average 3.41B shares vs 3.21B vs 3.41B vs 2.95B (2nd lowest of 2013!) vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume rose to an above average 756M shares vs 692M vs 689M vs  595M (lowest since 5/24) vs 729M vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. The 12-month average is just 723M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 80 have been up and 29 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose slightly to 159 vs 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows fell but remain very elevated at 459 vs 507!!! (a new rally high) vs 363!!! vs 143 vs 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-507).

  1. Advance/Declines were solidly positive: +5.6x! vs-4.2x! vs -6.4x! vs -1.2x vs +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +3.2x! vs -2.3x vs -2.8x vs +1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was even better: +6.9x!!! vs -3.8x vs -4.4x! vs -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +3.9x! vs -3.2x vs -3.6x! +1.3x vs +2.6x vs +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 2%!!! vs -1% vs -1.6% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!! Brokers +2.2%! vs -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks +1.4% vs -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +1.3% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA rose for the first time in four sessions by 1.2% vs -1% vs -1.4% vs 0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.21 +.15 BUT intraday low was $12.97 again creating a ‘double bottom’…2nd time it has traded BELOW $13 since 4/11/11. only other financial mover. But: JPM +1.8% vs -0.6% vs -1.6%; C -1% vs -3.8%! vs +2.1%; WFC +1.7% vs -1% vs -1.4%; USB +0.2% vs flat vs -0.5%; GS +2.4%!!! vs -0.9% vs -2.5%! MS -0.8%? vs -2%! vs -3.9%!!!; UBS +2.9%!!! vs -1.8% vs -2% – the sector remains near their rally highs but: DOWN 1.92% over the past five years…annualized!!!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) fell more than offsetting Wednesday’s rise but remains elevated. The high was 5/12 at 18.60, not seen since 2/25, and it closed at 16.41 -2.18! with a range of 16.37-18.38 (18th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities slightly higher – Japan is strongest at +1.9% BUT a day after losing 6.4%!!!, India also rallying; UK +0.1% vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%! vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France +0.2% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!! vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany +0.5% vs -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan +1.9%! vs -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9% vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng +0.4% vs -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea +0.4% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India +1.9%! vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures modestly lower and in a narrow trading range…no conviction: DOW -22; SPX -2.90; NDQ -2.75.

Bonds rallied yesterday finally but despite 10’s being up ¾ and 30’s up nearly a point, they remain depressed; and after being up earlier are now little changed and mixed overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.14% +3/32 (recent range 2.25% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.32% -1/32. The long TIP rose more than 2 ponts yesterday but remains well above 1%! Currently 1.08% +5/8 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5, 12 mo. ave 0.65%!. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.273% 3 mos., 0.411%! 6 mos. Foreign bond yields lower across the board, led by Portuga, but continue to be highly volatile!: Germany 1.52% -4; UK 2.10% -6; France 2.08% -4, Italy 4.26% -10; Spain 4.52% -8; Portugal 6.20% -20!!!; Greece 9.76% -10 vs 10% vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! vs 9.28% vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% -the rally is over! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed weak at $1377.80 -$14.20, in a parallel session, negating Wednesday’s gain. Tuesday’s session low was $1364.50, lowest since 5/23. It has closed above $1400 just one of the past 7 sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 14 of the last 24 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1416-1434 – stablilizing. Overnight it is slightly higher at $1384.50 +$6.50. Crude closed higher at $96.69 +.81, high $96.92 – highest high and close since 5/20 ($96.03), and remains well above the 40/50 day …7 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.27) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (94.01-93.55 – now crossed!).  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $97.26 +.57 with an intraday high of $97.50, highest since May 6th! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

(If you missed yesterdays’ commentary on stock and bond performance over the past five years, you might find it of interest…especially if you think the banks are a buy!

Bernanke caught between a rock and a hard place, not wanting to appear ‘dovish’ to his board, but risking panicking sellers…again…by talking about ending or even reducing the QE’s. Look how badly bonds have suffered since May 9th and the volatility in stocks caused by it as we rapidly approach the end of a quarter. Quarterly gains remain in the 4-5.5% range, except Dow Transports +1.4% and Dow Utilities DOWN 4.6%! But yesterday may have been a watershed event for both bonds and income producing stocks, finally. Time will tell…still, if you sold in May…

Ah, and Big Ben has to make his semi-annual trip up the Hill next week for two days of grilling by buffoons who only wish to preen themselves with their knowledge (sic). “Send in the clowns…there have to be clowns…don’t worry they’re here.” (thanks to Stephen Sondheim for that!)

Just get through the day and forget these god-forsaken markets.

TB

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6/13/13….many happy returns? includes total returns (sorry this is so late)

June 13, 2013 at 11:26 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets ·Tagged

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Failure has gone to his head.” – Wilson Mizner, about a bankrupt businessman who remained incorrigibly optimisitic, and…

 “He’s never been very successful. When opportunity knocks he complains about the noise.” – unattributed…but true.

 Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I am still learning.” – Michelangelo …he is, are you???

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Slump to Seven-Week Low on World Bank Forecast Cut; Yen Strengthens

*RBS Slides on Hester Resignation as 2,000 Investment-Bank Job Cuts Planned

*JPMorgan to Barclays Ushering Bond Buyers to Stocks on Fed Exit Concerns

*Brazil to Indonesia Fight Capital Outflows as Emerging-Markets Assets Slide

*Spain’s Recession Seen Ending by Next Year as Demands for Austerity Ease

*Fed Taper Danger Stalks World Markets Fearful of Fallout

 *Britain is Urged by EU to Probe Currency Manipulation After Libor Rigging – !!!

*Boeing Strains Loyalists Patience as Airbus A350 Performs Maiden Flight

*JPMorgan’s $ 40 Billion FDI Call Signals Peso Bond Rebound – or not?

*Rapes at Occidental College Punished by Book Report After Brief Suspension – !!!

*Snowden is Backed by Protest Groups Amid Risks he Breached Hong Kong Law

*Kerry, Hagel Said to Attend White House Talks on U.S. Aid to Syria Rebels

To the moon, Alice…the moon! Stocks tanked again for a second day…almost identical to Tuesday with horrible A/D’s and Breadth for a second day and  at huge jump in the VIX to 18.59 +1.52, closing near the session high. New 52 week highs were stable but new low surged from a high 363 to a very high 507!!! This on a slight drop and slightly below average volume…it appears concerns over what the Fed will do next week are the culprit…that and the High Freaks of course! Speculation is key, driven by high frequency trades.

Whereas on Tuesday all indices were off by 0.7% (Utilities) to 1.6% (NYSE Financials), yesterday, they were all off almost the same amount: 0.7% (Transports) to 1.1% for the two Nasdaq indices. This reporter is always concerned when the changes are nearly identical…programs? Whatever! aided by an outraged Jamie Dimon speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference). So were bonds most of the session before posting a rebound in the afternoon, commodities (Gold off $9 but intraday low was worst since 5/23; Crude -.39 but the $94.04 intraday low negated the rally),

Advance/Declines and Breadth were very negative New 52 week highs were halved while new lows more than doubled! Volatility (S&P VIX) rose sharply in a wide range of 16-17.14 after gapping up on the open and closing a gap from three days ago!

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1% or 30.6 with just 14 members up and 83 down! 9 stocks led by MSFT -4.5 vs -1.4; GOOG -2.5 vs +2.5; AMZN -2.5; ORCL -2 and five others including AAPL lost more than 1 index point. Tech is treacherous and blowing with the wind.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!!; Dow Transports -0.7% vs -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 -0.9% vs -1.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities -0.9%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.4%!!! – now down 7.7% over the past 14 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 12.6%!!!; S&P 500 -0.8% vs -1% vs flat vs +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%!; Nasdaq Composite -1.1%! vs -1.1%! vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 -1.1%! vs -1%! vs flat vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%!

*NYSE Volume slipped to a slightly below average 3.21B shares vs 3.41B vs 2.95B (lowest level in 10 sessions) vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume was stable at a  still below average 692M shares vs 689M vs  595M (lowest since 5/24) vs 729M vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 79 have been up and 29 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They were stable at 140 vs 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows however rose 50% a day after nearly doubling to 507!!! (a new rally high) vs 363!!! vs 143 vs 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-507).

  1. Advance/Declines were very negative for a second day: -4.2x! vs -6.4x! vs -1.2x vs +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.3x vs -2.8x vs +1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -3.8x vs -4.4x! vs -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -3.2x vs -3.6x! +1.3x vs +2.6x vs +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were off 1% vs -1.6% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!! Brokers -0.8% vs -1.6%; KBW Banks -1.1% vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks -0.8% vs -1.1%. BofA declined for a 3rd day by 1% vs -1.4% vs 0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.06 -.06 BUT intraday low was $12.97…first time it has traded BELOW $13 since 4/11/11. C -1% vs -3.8%! % vs +2.1%…only other financial mover. But: JPM -0.6% vs -1.6%; WFC -1%! vs -1.4%; USB flat vs -0.5%; GS -0.9% vs -2.5%! MS -2%! vs -3.9%!!!; UBS -1.8% vs -2% – the sector had their rally highs within the past three days…a warning!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose sharply for a 2nd day taking out the recent high set just 3 days ago of 18.51 and replacing it with 18.60, not seen since 2/25…and traded in a broad range of 16.43-18.60, a day after closing a gap created two days prior, before closing at 18.59 +1.52! (17th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is now 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.60, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

 Global equities are being SLAMMED – Japan off 6.4%!!!; UK -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.7%! vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France -0.6% vs +0.5% vs -2%!!! vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany -1.4%!!! vs -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan -6.4%!!! vs -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9% vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng -2.2%!!! vs closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India -1.1% vs -0.5% vs -1.5%! vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures modestly lower (?) and back to a narrow trading range…no conviction: DOW -28; SPX -4.20; NDQ -5.75 – why not more? Dunno.

 Bonds were blasted again yesterday on Fed fears even as stocks were thoroughly trashed for a second straight day but are modestly higher overnight – so what! 10 yr Treasury 2.20% +1/4 (recent range now 2.24% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.37%!!! to 2.82%, now 3.35% +7/16. The long TIP was destroyed yesterday and while up overnight has recovered less than half of yesterday’s loss! Currently 1.17% +3/4 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Since the Bernanke announcement on May 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.22%! Libor update: 0.273% 3 mos., 0.415% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed with Portugal falling the most but Greece continuing mostly lower after being slammed two days ago and continue to be highly volatile!: Germany 1.57% -1; UK 2.15% +1; France 2.17% -2, Italy 4.33% -5; Spain 4.55% -6; Portugal 6.34% +3; Greece 10% vs -10 vs 9.94% vs 10.27%!!! vs 9.28% vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% -the rally is over! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed higher at $1392.00 +$15. Tuesday’s session low was $1364.50, lowest since 5/23. It has closed above $1400 just one of the past SIX sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 13 of the last 23 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1416-1437 – stablilizing. Overnight it is weaker at $1382.10 -$9.80. Crude closed slightly higher at $95.88 +.50 –  3 days after the highest close since 5/20 ($96.03), but remains well above the 40/50 day …6 days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.26) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (93.75-93.58 – now crossed!).  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $95.46 -.42. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

 Some random thoughts:

 

While the selloff in bonds began on May Day which ended a rally from June 2007 (with 10’s starting at 5.295% and rallying to 2.10% before selling off beginning 12/18/08-6/10/09 – which whipsawed panicked investors to 3.95%, before bottoming at a record 1.388% on 7/24/12; 5.40% to 2.52% on 30’s, then back to 4.763%, then back to 2.45% on 7/24/12.Bernanke’s speech to the Fed on May 7th (low yield on the 30 yr was 2.82% on 5/2!), which triggered a selloff in bonds and a short-lived rally in stocks (which has now been negated), the 10 and 30 yr treasuries have taken out two key support levels (10:s  2.06%; 30’s 3.26% –  both from 3/11 and 3.32% – 5/28), 10’s yesterday hit 2.24% and 30’s 3.38% -  now critical if broached next support is 2.38%  and 3.48% respectively set on March 19, 2012! That could ruin your entire quarter! The recent LOW yields were set on July 25, 2012 at 1.40% and 2.45% respectively. Look at the changes in price:

Price and Change since

6/12/07 active tsy:                     10 yr (4.50% 5/17)       30 yr (5% 5/37)

6/12/07-12/18/08                       93.93-119.13,+26.8%     100 – 149.78,+49.8%       

12/18/08-6/10/09                       119.13-105.44,-11.5%    149.78-103.56,-31.1%.     

6/10/09-7/24/12                         105.44-118.75,+12.6%  103.56-151.82,+46.7%    

7/24/12-5/2/13                            118.75-116.13,   -2.1%     151.82-142.50, -6.2%

5/2/13-6/13/13                             116.13-114.07,  -1.7%     142.50-131.37, -7.8%

6/12/07-7/24/12                        93.93-118.75,+26.4%   100 – 151.82, +51.8%     

7/24/12-6/12/13                         151.82-114.25, -24.7%! 151.82-131.38,-14.4%!                            

6/12/07-6/12/13                            93.93-114.25,+21.6%  100 – 131.38, +31.8%    

‘Generic’ Total Return*             (7.675% annual)           (9.527% annual)         

*includes interest and reinvestment of interest. Overstated because it assumes ‘rolling’ in EACH auction. This is due to high coupons (sic) being reinvested well below original yields. Only protection against this is zero’s. If purchased instead total return would be:

UST Strip 5/15/17: 58.801-96.574 = +64.2% (10.4% annualized!)

UST Strip 5/15/37: 24.980-43.815 = +75.4% (11.9% annualized!)

Caveat: unless purchased in a tax-deferred or tax-exempt account phantom income would occur resulting in tax liabilities. Also they experienced huge volatility with the middle three years not performing much and many people, this writer included, dumped them and other long bonds in the first half of 2008 and realized too late that we missed an opportunity. The premiums on the coupon bonds speak volumes!

 

Attention stock geeks! Think you can do better? Five year annualized returns:

S&P 500 7.42% (with dividends reinvested in the index)

Dow 30 9.06%

Dow Transports 6.92%

Dow Utilities 2.79%

Nasdaq Composite 9.96%

Nasdaq 100 11.2%

Russell 2000 small cap 9.02%

NYSE Financials -1.92%

Note: this is from 6/30/08-5/31/13…but mtd returns are negative on all indices so it is really lower!

 

Have a great day and don’t let the moron’s get you down!

TB

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6/12/13…you can fool some of the people…

June 12, 2013 at 9:05 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged ,

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Did you know Mozart had no arms or legs? I’ve seen statues of him on people’s pianos.” – Victor Borge

“People who say money can’t buy happiness just don’t know where to shop.” – Tom Shivers 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Study nature, love nature, stay close to nature. It will never fail you.” – Frank Lloyd Wright…unless…unless…global warming gets us first!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Traders Said to Manipulate Foreign-Exchange Rates to Profit From Clients – they learned from the U.S. banks manipulation of overdraft fees!

*Unemployment in U.K. Shrinks More Than Forecast as Recovery Gathers Pace

*U.S. Index Futures Advance as Yen Weakens With Bonds; Commodities Decline

*Greece Loses Status as a Developed Market as MSCI Raises U.A.E’s Ranking

*Volkswagen Selling 1.2 Billion-Euro Convertible Debt to Fund Growth Push

*U.S. Stock-Market Volatility Bets Hit Record on Fed Speculation – told you so!

*Saudi Border Towers Help Keep Stimulus at Home as Growth Lures Immigrants

*India Women Choosing Sterilization Suffer Rusty Scalpels as $10 Buys Food

*Istanbul Square Empties After Night of Violence as Protestors Flee Police

*U.S. Lawmakers Demand Prosecution of Secret-Leaking Ex-Security Contractor

*Iowa-to-Maryland Storms Set to Hit 20% of Americans With Hail, Lightning- !!!

 

The headline above on volatility speaks volumes…wake up, investors…today’s markets are about anything but investing…speculation is key, driven by high frequency trades. If that’s what you want…you’ve got it…enjoy! Look at the past three sessions: big rally, nothing, big selloff…is that the kind of world you want to invest in? No momentum! Why? Because they don’t want it. Ask a trader (not an investor) what his best friend is. He will undoubtedly say ‘volatility’ but that is not what YOU want as an investor!

All indices were off by 0.7% (Utilities) to 1.6% (NYSE Financials…aided by an outraged Jamie Dimon speaking at a Morgan Stanley conference). So were bonds most of the session before posting a rebound in the afternoon, commodities (Gold off $9 but intraday low was worst since 5/23; Crude -.39 but the $94.04 intraday low negated the rally),

Advance/Declines and Breadth were very negative New 52 week highs were halved while new lows more than doubled! Volatility (S&P VIX) rose sharply in a wide range of 16-17.14 after gapping up on the open and closing a gap from three days ago!

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1% or 30.6 with just 14 members up and 83 down! 9 stocks led by MSFT -4.5 vs -1.4; GOOG -2.5 vs +2.5; AMZN -2.5; ORCL -2 and five others including AAPL lost more than 1 index point. Tech is treacherous and blowing with the wind.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -0.8% vs -0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!!; Dow Transports -1% vs -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 -1.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.4%!!! – now down 6.8% over the past 13 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 11.7%!!!; S&P 500 -1% vs flat vs +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%!; Nasdaq Composite -1.1% vs +0.1% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 -1% vs flat vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%!

*NYSE Volume rose to an average 3.41B shares vs 2.95B (lowest level in 10 sessions) vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume rose to a still below average 689M shares vs  595M (lowest since 5/24) vs 729M vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 79 have been up and 28 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They fell to 141 vs 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows nearly doubled after tripling to 363!!! vs 143 vs 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-290).

  1. Advance/Declines were very negative: -6.4x! vs -1.2x vs +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and -2.8x vs +1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -4.4x! vs -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and -3.6x! +1.3x vs +2.6x vs +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were -1.6% vs flat vs +1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!! Brokeers -1.6%; KBW Banks -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks -1.1%. BofA declined for a 2nd day by -1.4% vs 0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.30 -.08…21st day above $13 since 4/11/11. Brokers +0.2% vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.1% vs -2.3%! vs flat vs -0.9% vs -1.4%; KBW Banks +0.6% vs +1.6% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -1% vs flat vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +0.9% vs -1.2%! vs -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%. C -3.8%! % vs+2.1%…only other financial mover. But: JPM -1.6%; WFC -1.4%; USB -0.5%; GS -2.5%! MS -3.9%!!!; UBS -2% – the brokers hit their rally highs within the past two days…a warning!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose sharply 3 days after another recent high of 18.51 intraday, not seen since 2/25…and traded in a broad bank of 16-17.14, gapping up on the open and closing another gap from two days ago, before closing at 17.07 +1.63! (16th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.51, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (14.25/14.10) and the 200 day (14.96)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

European equities higher, Asia weak; UK +0.2% vs -1.7%! vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France +0.5% vs -2%!!! vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany -0.1% vs -1.7% vs +1.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan -0.2% vs -1.5% vs +4.9% vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng closed vs -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea -0.6% vs -0.6% vs +0.5% -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India -0.5% vs -1.5%! vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures traded higher overnight and stocks are opening higher: DOW +83; SPX +8; NDQ +13.

Bonds managed to rally but it was feeble even as stocks tanked and are off again overnight giving up most of yesterday’s gains: 10 yr Treasury 2.21% -1/4 (recent range now 2.24% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.33% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.35% -5/8. The long TIP remains extremely weak after breaking down yet again setting another new high of 1.21% yesterday vs 1%, set just a week ago Monday!!! Currently 1.13% -3/16 – it has lost more than TWENTY points since May 2nd! –  still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Since the Bernanke announcement on the 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.21%! Libor update: 0.273% 3 mos., 0.414% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed with Portugal falling the most but Greece continuing to be highly volatile!: Germany 1.61% +1; UK 2.17% +1; France 2.20% -1, Italy 4.31% -5; Spain 4.55% -9; Portugal 6.14% -20?; Greece 9.94%! +23??? vs 10.27%!!! vs 9.28% vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% – it has broken down from the rally! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%.   

Gold closed slightly lower at $1377.00 -$9 only after hitting a sesson low of $1364.50, lowest since 5/23. It has closed above $1400 just one of the past FIVE sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 13 of the last 22 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1416-1441 – still declining! Overnight it is little changed at $1376.10 -.90. Crude also closed slightly lower at $95.38 -.39 –  two days after the highest close since 5/20 ($96.03), but remains well above the 40/50 day …five days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains well above the 200 day ($92.26) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support. First support at the 40/50 day (93.58-93.53 – crossed yesterday!).  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $95.96 +.58. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

Timing is everything, right? No sooner had TB written negatively on Jamie Dimon, CHAIRMAN AND CEO of JPMorganChase but he spoke at a Morgan Stanley investors conference…complete with expletives. Doth he protesteth too much? Nobody did anything wrong…all was above board. Jamie? Do you want that as your epitaph?

TB took a PR class many moons ago and one thing the prof drilled into us: you can write all the positives you want about a company but if you don’t back it up with actions it is for naught. Something went wrong yesterday for the ‘overhyped’ banks as they and their brethren, brokers (now faux banks) were destroyed…will BofA break $13 for first time since May 9th? It could…session low yesterday was $13.07. Wake up investors…wherever you are!

Have a terrific day!…er, not you, Jamie!

 

TB

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6/11/13…absolute power corrupts…

June 11, 2013 at 8:54 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics ·Tagged , , , , , ,

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Beverly Hills is so exclusive – it’s the only town in America where Taco Bell has an unlisted number. And so rich – it’s the only place I’ve seen a  Salvation Army Band with a string section.” – anonymous

 “People who say money can’t buy happiness just don’t know where to shop.” – Tom Shivers 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I learned the value of hard work by working hard.” – Margaret Mead

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Drop With Bonds, Commodities After BOJ Policy Unchanged; Yen Rises – sick!

*Kuroda Stares Down Bond Volatility With Bank of Japan Stimulus Unchanged

*Treasuries Fall on Speculation Mortgage-Backed Hedge Sales Will Increase – or not!

*Citigroup Faces Up to $7 Billion Currency Loss on Dollar, Peabody Predicts – !!!

*JPMorganChase Credit-Rating Outlook is Cut to Negative From Stable by S&P

*ECB Bond-Buying Case Pits Market Stability Against Democracy, Lawyer Says – yes!!!

*Corinthian Colleges Falls After SEC Begins an Inquiry of the For-Profit Chain – Good!  

*U.S. Surveillance Leak Spawns Criminal Probe With Congressional Questions

*Booz Allen Contracts Seen at Risk With Employee-Leaked Government Secrets

*House Republicans Seek Faster Pace on Immigration as Senate Moves Forward – oh?  

Talk about a lack of momentum, five indices (Dow, S&P 500, both Nasdaq Indices and NYSE Financials were between +.01% and -.01% – three of them flat! Despite that bonds traded weaker and have broken down yet again! Best performer was the Russell 2000 small cap, +0.5%, worst was Dow Utilities, -0.3% – yawn! The NYSE Volume spoke…well…volumes at just 2.95B shares while shares traded on the floor plunged to 595M shares, lowest since 5/24! Advance/Declines and Breadth were little changed and mixed: NYSE negative, Nasdaq, slight positives. New 53 week highs continued to rise – not difficult near the index record highs but new lows nearly tripled!   Volatility (S&P VIX) rose modestly and remains elevated above at 15.45 with an extremely narrow range of 15.20-15.60 intraday.

The Nasdaq 100 was FLAT but 41 were up and 58 down! 5 stocks led by GOOG +2.5 and EBAY +2 rose by more than 1 index point, while losers were led by AAPL -2.5 and MSFT -1.4. 1.2%. As noted yesterday, the leadership changes on a daily basis making this a tough year for tech and very volatile.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 -0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!!; Dow Transports -0.3% vs +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 +0.5% vs +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.4%!!! – now down 6.1% over the past 12 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 11%!!!; S&P 500 FLAT vs +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%!; Nasdaq Composite +0.1% vs +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 FLAT vs +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%!

*NYSE Volume plunged to 2.95B, the lowest level in 10 sessions vs 3.37B vs 3.48B vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume also plunged to 595M shares, lowest since 5/24 vs 729M vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. The 12-month average is just 720M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 79 have been up and 27 down…there have been 22 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose to 278 vs 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows nearly tripled to 143 vs 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-290).

  1. Advance/Declines were little changed and mixed: -1.2x vs +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.8x vs +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: -1.1x vs +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +1.3x vs +2.6x vs +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials were FLAT vs +1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!! BofA declined by 0.6% vs +1.4% vs +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.30 -.08…21st day above $13 since 4/11/11. Brokers +0.2% vs +3.3%!!! vs +2.1% vs -2.3%! vs flat vs -0.9% vs -1.4%; KBW Banks +0.6% vs +1.6% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -1% vs flat vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +0.9% vs -1.2%! vs -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%. GE -0.3% vs+2.1%…only other financial mover.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly two days after another recent high of 18.51 intraday, not seen since 2/25…but traded in a very narrow range of 15.10-15.60 before closing at 15.45 +.31 –  (15th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.51, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (13.88/13.78) and the 200 day (14.91)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities are being slammed overnight; UK -1.7%! vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France -2%!!! vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany -1.7% vs +1.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan -1.5% vs +4.9% vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng -1.2%! vs +0.2% vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea -0.6% vs +0.5% -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India -1.5%! vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures are being hit also and near low end of range: DOW -108; SPX -14.10; NDQ -26.50!!!

Bonds are weak yet again…doesn’t matter whether stocks are up or down bonds just trade lower…especially TIPS!!! 10 yr Treasury 2.24% -9/32 (recent range now 2.24% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.33% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.38% -5/32. The long TIP has broken down yet again setting another new high of 1.20% vs 1%, set just a week ago Monday!!! Currently 1.21% -1-1/8 – off 5-1/2 since 6/6 and TWENTY points since May 2nd! –  still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Since the Bernanke announcement on the 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.21%! Libor update: 0.272!!!% 3 mos., 0.411% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields rose even further yesterday afternoon and are still higher overnight led by GREECE!!!: Germany 1.62% +2; UK 2.18% +4; France 2.23% +5, Italy 4.43% +14; Spain 4.71% +13; Portugal 6.54% +42!!!; Greece 10.27%!!! +92!!! vs 9.28% vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% – it has broken down from the rally! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%. Japan 0.88% +5.  

Gold closed slightly higher at $1386.00 +$3??? after trading in a very narrow 13 point range?. Last week ended with a rare string of three straight ‘inside; days! It has closed above $1400 just one of the past FOUR sessions! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 13 of the last 21 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1416-1446 – still declining! Overnight it is weaker at $1374.60 -$11.40 – session low $1365.80, lowest since 5/23! Crude closed slightly lower at $95.77 -.26 – a day after the highest close since 5/20 ($96.03), but remains well above the 40/50 day …five days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains above the 200 day ($92.27) with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support at $92.28. Support at the 40/50 day (93.41-93.56).  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $94.56 -$1.21 – gambling anyone? 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

“Absolute power corrupts – absolutely.”  Here is a quote and expressed as politicians would not like you to think of it: “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men.” -Johne Dalberg (1834-1902).  Earlier, William Pitt, the Elder in a 1770 speech to the House of Lords: “Unlimited power is apt to corrupt the minds of those who possess it”

Here is the likely quote by Lamartine in an essay in 1848: “It is not only the slave or serf who is ameliorated in becoming free… the master himself did not gain less in every point of view,… for absolute power corrupts the best natures.”

No matter who said it originally, it is the truth. It is good to have a great orator for a president but they must follow throu with their actions, not just rely on their words and Obama has so often done…still it is better than George W. Bush, recall his ‘mission accomplished’ speech…it was just the beginning and look where the Iraqi people are for it…in a power struggle between the Sunni’s and Shiites…because we didn’t know the difference…but hey, we preserved the Oil Ministry with all those valuable contracts…but who is benefiting from them? China! Mission accomplished, my foot!

Obama wake up…your legacy is going to be one of a failure to keep your campaign promises if you aren’t careful. You said you would protect us from government snooping, nugatory…you said you would shut down Gitmo…ditto. You came through on your healthcare promise – partial credit as you sold out to pharma to get it through…think how much could have been saved by Medicare buying prescription drugs…ah, the spirit (sic) of the GOP is alive and well and the clock is ticking.

When are we going to wake up to Jamie Dimon being the most overhyped CEO – oops, Chairman/CEO – since First Pennsylvania run by the first wunderkind, John Bunting, who the analysts all believed would show those stuffed-shirt bankers how to run a bank. For a while he succeeded taking it to the 19th largest bank holding company before overextending in…drum roll please…financial services. Hey, was he Dimon’s mentor? The worst thing one can do is believe the hype put out about them by Wall Street. What’s next, Time’s Man of the Year???…sorry ‘Person’

The revelations of the wrongdoing in the London Whale as reported on Bloomberg raise questions on who is in charge: Congress or Mr. Dimon? Where is the SEC? Where are the shareholder lawsuits? This was outright fraud. J.P. would have been proud of this opportunist – until now!

Have a terrific day!…you too, Jamie…no hard feelings!

TB

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6/10/13…how do you plug a leak?

June 10, 2013 at 9:09 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, gun lobby, markets, politics, Second Amendment ·Tagged , , , , ,

From the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “We would have broken up except for the children. Who were the children? Well, she and I were” – Mort Sahl

“An extravagance is anything you buy that if of no use to your spouse.” 

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “You cannot open a book without learning something.” -Confucius

This week’s economic calendar has a few important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the May Retail Sales (Thursday) and May PPI (Friday).

We will also get April Wholesale Trade and April Job Openings (Tuesday), May Treasury Budget (Wednesday), May Import & Export Prices and April Business Inventories (Thursday), Q1 Current Account, May Industrial Production and May Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (Friday).

Labor market trends are slowly improving with moderate gains in nonfarm payroll employment, even though unemployment rate rose as participation rate inched up.  However, manufacturing activity, real consumer spending growth, motor vehicle sales are weakening compared to Q1 which indicate lower GDP growth for the current quarter.  Meanwhile, consumer confidence, factory orders, and construction spending rose. Inflation remains subdued. Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*No Inflation as U.S. Yields Increase Undermines Point-of-No-Return Outlook – first time since 2009 that yields are rising at the same time inflation is slowing!!! Go figure!

*Stocks in U.S. Advance on Japan’s Economic Growth, S&P Outlook for America

*American Expansion Lasting Longer Than Most as Muted Growth Deters Excess – ???

*Japan Revisits First-Quarter GDP Growth to 4.1% in Boost for Abe Campaign

*Britain Fights EU Short-Selling Powers in Wake of Defeat on Banker Bonuses

*Apple Seen ending Product Funk With Revamp of Software That Powers iPhones

*Londoners Forced to Rent Attracting Global Apartment Investment

*La Dolce Vita Eludes Italian Students as Colleges Produce the Unemployable L

*Ex-CIA Worker Reportedly in Hong Kong Poses Extradition Choice for China

 

Another rally…or should we say another low volume rally where the proportion of gain was not matched by the volume…per usual! This, just a day after BOTH the Dow and S&P 500 traded below their 40 and 50 day moving averages and closed slightly above, Dow Transports took honors with a 2.4% gain with the Russell 2000 small cap (?) and Dow Utilities bringing up the rear  with just 0.8% gains…understandable for Utilities but small caps??? Dow Utilities remain above their miserable 200 day moving average following their 11.3% plunge from the April 30th  high! Advance/Declines and breadth were tepidly positive.  Volatility (S&P VIX) remains elevated by declined to 15.14 with a range of 14.96-16.21, taking off some of the pressure and with options expiry 2 weeks away. No fear!

The Nasdaq 100 rose by 1.3% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%. Up 40.6 points with 9 stocks gaining more than one point for a total of 23 points with 7:1 advanciing and led by MSFT +5.1; AMZN/GOOG +3.5; AAPL +2.8; GILD/ORCL +2, and the only big loser was QCOM -1.3.  The leadership changes on a daily basis making this a tough year for tech and very volatile.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +1.4%! vs +0.5% vs -1.4%! vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!!; Dow Transports +2.4%!!! vs +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 +0.8% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities +0.8% vs +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.4%!!! – now down 5.8% over the past 11 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 10.7%!!!; S&P 500 +1.3%! vs +0.9% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%!; Nasdaq Composite +1.3% vs +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 +1.4% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%!

*NYSE Volume declined on the rally to a slightly below average 3.37B shares vs 3.48B  vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume declined sharply to an average 729M shares vs 800M vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. For the week the average was a strong 787M but results were mixed, i.e. no clear treand! The 12-month average is just 721M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. May 31st was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 79 have been up and 27 down…there have been 21 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They doubled to an average 227 vs 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows were halved to 50 vs 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-290).

  1. Advance/Declines were only modestly positive? +2.2x vs -3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +1.9x vs +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x! vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +2.7x vs +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +2.6x vs +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 1.3% vs +1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs -0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!! BofA rose sharply for the 3rd time in 7 sessions by +1.4% vs +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.38 +.15…20th day above $13 since 4/11/11. Brokers +3.3%!!! vs +2.1% vs -2.3%! vs flat vs -0.9% vs -1.4%; KBW Banks +1.6% vs +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -1% vs flat vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.7% vs +0.9% vs -1.2%! vs -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%. GE +2.1%!
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) plunged a day after another high of 18.51 intraday, not seen since 2/25!!! before closing at 15.14 -1.49!!! –  (14th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.51, and it remains  above the 40/50 day (13.88/13.78) and the 200 day (14.91)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities higher led by JAPAN and Germany!; UK +0.1% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France +0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany +1.2%!!! vs +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan +4.9%!!! vs -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng +0.2% vs -1.2%! vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea +0.5% vs -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures higher: DOW +72; SPX +9.30; NDQ +13.50. Stock market opened and Dow quickly rose 50 points then reversed field turning down slightly. Transports off 28! Other indices little changed…go figure.

Bonds closed weaker Friday on the stock market rally…such is the fate of downtrodden treasuries…worse they are off again overnight…BOTH 10’s and 30’s breaking down yet again!!! 10 yr Treasury 2.22% -3/8 (recent range now 2.22% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr, now  3.37% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.37% -9/16!!! The long TIP has broken down yet again setting another new high of 1.07% vs 1%, set o/n!!! Currently 1.07% -1/2 – still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Since the Bernanke announcement on the 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.07%! Libor update: 0.274% 3 mos., 0.411% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields higher after being trashed on Friday!!! Germany 1.58% +3; UK 2.12% +3; France 2.12% +6!!!, Italy 4.26% +8; Spain 4.54% +2; Portugal 6.02% -2; Greece 9.30% +8 vs 9.28% vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% – it has broken down from the rally! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%. Japan 0.83% -1.  

 Gold closed sharply lower to end a week that included a rare string of three straight ‘inside; days! It closed Below $1400 again after just one day above following 2 days below at $1383.00 -$21.20! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 13 of the last 20 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1419-1450 – it gets close, then fails!! Overnight $1379.00 -$4.00. Crude closed solidly higher for a 2nd day at $96.03 +$1.27 – highest close since 5/20, and well above the 40/50 day again…four days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains above the 200 day with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support at $92.28. Support at  the 40/50 day (93.30-93.59).  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $94.47 -.56. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

The ex-CIA doc leaker may offend you but to TB not as much as the two intelligence committee chairmen, Dianne Feinstein (D) and Mike Rogers (R). Feinstein’s defense of General Clapper’s testimony was pathetically reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s  ‘it depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is’…the question which was played was clear as a bell and from the body language of Clapper he was at the least misleading. No problem for Dianne though…he just misunderstood it. Bullshit!

Then she compounded the error by saying the leaker should have come to the committee…reread the prior paragraph…we are in trouble.

While not condoning the leaker’s, a former CIA operative, actions, as it is possible he didn’t have all the facts correct, the actions of the two committee chairman is exactly what the founding fathers feared most: we know what’s best for the country, so trust us.

As if there aren’t enough problems and discord in the nation’s Capitol it is a sad day when two elected officials of opposing parties can agree on something that is in direct conflict to their responsibilities. Now we know why Boehner hasn’t removed Bachmann from the committee for cause…disgusting!

The shootings over the weekend in Santa Monica where TB grew up…and he, along with Arnold Schwarzenegger attended Santa Monica College once again question the stranglehold the NRA has on this country. It is self-serving to promote more guns as making us safer and an outright falsehood as we should already be the safest country in the world…instead we are number one in gun deaths.

Like Shady Hook and Columbine, these things don’t happen in peaceful Santa Monica…or at least people don’t think so, until they do…and are doing so with increasing frequency. We are a very sick society that is run by big business and nothing proves that more than the NRA, mouthpiece Wayne LaPierre,  and their powerful gun lobby, supported by the gun manufacturers. Wake up, America, before it is your family that is touched by gun violence.

Have a great and prosperous week…just don’t get taken for a ride!

TB

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6/7/13…another payrolls Friday

June 7, 2013 at 8:58 am · Filed under banking, economy, financial, markets, politics

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Flying is learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss.” – Douglas Adams

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Payrolls in U.S. Increased 175,000 in May as Unemployment Climbed to 7.6% – !!!

*Stocks in U.S. Jump After Companies Add More Jobs Than Economists Forecast

*Japan’s Public Pension Fund Cutting Domestic Bond Purchase Program – !!!

*Gross Says Jobs Report Signals Fed Won’t Tamper With Bond Purchase Program – talking from position but he’s also correct! …on one month’s numbers?

*German Industrial Output Unexpectedly Jumps Most in a Year on Construction -1

*Canada Posts Biggest Job Gain in a Decade After Construction Work Expands – ?

*Google is Seen Scaling Down Wallet Application Spurned by Consumers

*Brazil Banks Prove Better at Home Than Goldman in Contest Cohn Appreciates

*Republicans Trying to Pink-Slip Obama’s Choices for Appeals Court in D.C.

*U.S. Defends Secret Data-Collection as Legal Tool in Fight Against Terror L

*’No Child Left Behind’ U.S. School Law Reopens Partisan Divide in Congress  

 

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 175k in May vs 163k estimate. Private payrolls increased by 178k while government lost another 3k. March was revised up by 4k but April lowered by 16k! Factories LOST 8k jobs while Construction rose by 7k.

 The Unemployment Rate rose to 7.6% +0.1% but only due to rounding (7.555% vs 7.51%. Unemployed and discouraged steady at 8.0%; add marginally attached 8.8% -0.1%; add part-time for economic reasons 13.8% -0.1%. Household employment rose by 319k but the participation rate barely budged to 63.4% +0.1%. Average Hourly Earnings increased by just 2% from a year ago. Workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours while Manufacturing rose to 40.8 hours up just 0.1.

 Market Reaction: stocks rose on the news but remain weak while bonds – especially TIPS were crushed with the long TIP hitting a new high of 1.03%! Not good! Gold, which closed above $1400 yesterday is being crushed again and is now $1388 while Crude which gained yesterday is lower at $94.48.

 

Call it snatching victory (sic) from the jaws of defeat. Only a rally in the final 15 minutes prevented the Dow Industrials from closing below 15k for a 2nd day, while the S&P 500 which broke 1600 (1598), had a steady rise to close at 1622.  Both traded below BOTH their 40 and 50 day moving averages and closed just slightly above, while Dow Transports closed well below both for a second straight day. Still all of the gains since May 3rd have been eradicated. Meanwhile, Dow Utilities rose 1.3% to close above their miserable 200 day moving average following their 11.3% plunge from the April 30th  high! Also, the tone of the market, lack of enthusiasm, rapid increase in volatility (S&P VIX has risen from 12.45 to 17.50 just since 5/17, but dropped back slightly to 16.63 yesterday), and more failures by high frequency traders to stabilize and in fact exacerbate declines…makes this market treacherous. Don’t believe TB but at least listen to Marc Faber, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, or Jeremy Grantham (made the correct call in 1999 and lost 25% of his accounts as the markets continued to accelerate…until they didn’t!). Regardless of those who use those cute definitions of ‘cheap’ such as historical p/e’s which of course are not overvalued in a time of record…but flattening or worse earnings, but using the ten-year historical averages favored by Robert Schiller are anything but cheap! One hiccup and even the perceived cheap becomes rich! Look before you leap…don’t you at least wish you had bought some ‘cheap’ puts back in mid-May? Nah…needless worry that will cut into our enormous profits, right?  Volume was fairly steady at average levels while A/D’s and Breadth were decidedly negative…especially the latter!

The Nasdaq 100 rose just 0.5%! vs -1.2%. Up 13 points but nearly 12 were due to just 7 stocks which rose by 1 or more points led by AMGEN/RGEN +1.8. But there where two huge losers: AAPL -5.4%!!! vs -3.4!, and ORCL -3.1% – tied to CEO/founder Larry Ellison’s plunging popularity on his commercialization of the America’s Cup?. This continutes to be a tough year for tech and very volatile.

So let’s see what else happened:

* Dow 30 +0.5%? vs -1.4%! (-217, close near low at 14,960, 1st close below 15k since 5/6), vs -0.5% vs +0.9% vs -1.4%!!! (range 276 points, loss 208!!!); Dow Transports +1% vs -1.9%! vs -0.5% vs flat vs -0.8% vs +0.2% vs -1.1%; Russell 2000 +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -1%; Dow Utilities +1.3% vs -0.9% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.6% vs flat vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.4%!!! – now down 6.6% over the past 10 sessions, and since posting a near record high on 4/30, have plunged 11.5%!!!; S&P 500 +0.9% vs -1.4%! vs -0.6% vs +0.6% vs -1.4%!; Nasdaq Composite +0.7% vs -1.3%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%; NDQ 100 +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.6% vs +0.3% vs -1%!.

*NYSE Volume decline slightly to an average 3.48B shares vs 3.62B vs 3.6B vs 3.94B vs 3.91B vs 3.47B vs 3.56B vs 3.43B vs 2.75B (2013 low).  REAL NYSE Volume rose to a solid 800M shares vs 740M vs 787M vs 880M vs 1.35B (highest since 3/15 and 2nd highest of the year!) vs 711 shares vs 722M vs 734M vs 587M. The 12-month average is just 721M shares. The range since 2/11 is 558M to 1.825B on 3/15’s options expiry and a near 12 month high, second only to 12/21’s 1.88B shares. Last Friday was only the fourth day this year to register over 1B shares! There have now been just 20 800M+ shares in 2013 – 7 up, 13 down, but on trades of less than that 78 have been up and 27 down…there have been 21 mixed sessions.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 74-864. They rose to 103 vs 74!!! vs 235 vs 234 vs 221 vs 300 vs 175 vs 517 vs 138!!! vs 811. New lows declined again to 95 vs 125 vs 182 vs 325 vs 290 vs 108 vs 191 vs 79 vs 49 (recent range 29-290).

  1. Advance/Declines were solidly positive, but…-3.6x vs  -4.3x!!! vs -1.7x vs -1.2x vs -5.5x! vs +1.3x vs -3.8x!!! (recent range -7.1x to +4.4x) on NYSE and +2.4x vs -3.4x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs -2.6x! vs +2x vs -2.3x vs +2.4x vs +1.1% vs +1.1x vs -2.9x! vs +1.2x vs -3.3x! (recent -3.5x to +3x). Breadth was similar: +5.3x! vs -4.3x!!! vs -2.2x vs +1.3x vs -6.8x!!! vs +2x vs -1.7x vs +1.8x vs -1.5x (recent -10.5x to +6.4x!!!) on NYSE and +2.6x vs -4.9x!!! vs -2x vs +1.2x vs -3.8x!!! vs -+3.5x vs -1.6x vs +2.5x (recent -12.8x to +6.2x)  
  2. NYSE Financials rose by 1.1% vs 1.8%!!! vs 0.4% vs +0.3% vs -1.7%!!!. BofA rose for the first time in 5 sessions by +0.8% vs -2%!!! vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs -1.1%! vs +3.3%??? vs +1.5%??? to $13.20 +11…19th day above $13 since 4/11/11. Brokers +2.1% vs -2.3%! vs flat vs -0.9% vs -1.4%; KBW Banks +1.2% vs -1.4%! vs -1% vs flat vs -1.7%; Nasdaq Banks +0.9% vs -1.2%! vs -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -1.2%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) hit another high of 18.51 intraday, not seen sicne 2/25!!! before closing at 16.63 -.87 – from 17.50, highest since 4/18!!! (13th day above 13 since May 2). The range since 4/12 is 11.99 (multi year low) to 18.51, and it is now well above the 40/50 day (13.88/13.78) and the 200 day (14.91)…ytd the range is 19.28 (2/25!) to 11.05 (3/14) – 12 mo. ave 16.10!

Global equities mixed with Asia weaker…look at Japan lately!; UK +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -1.4%!; France +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.2%!; Germany +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -1.1%!; Japan -0.2% vs -0.9% vs -3.8%!!! vs +2.1% vs -3.7%!!! vs +1.4% vs -5.2%!!!; Hang Seng -1.2%! vs -1.1%! vs -1% vs -0.5% vs -0.4% vs -0.3% vs -1.6%!!!; Korea -1.8%!!! vs -1.5%!!! vs -1.3%; India -0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.8% vs -2.3%!!! U.S. stock futures slightly higher in a narrow trading range  -  caution!: DOW +48; SPX +7.50; NDQ +9.25 – all about the same as this time yesterday!

Bonds were slightly better yesterday but are lower overnight: 10 yr Treasury 2.13% -7/16 (recent range now 2.17% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr’s 3.33% to 2.82%!!!, now 3.30% -15/16. The long TIP has broken down yet again setting another new high of 1.03% vs 1%, set Monday!!! Currently 1.03% -1-13/16- still the weakest link since a new (record?) low of 0.36% on 4/5. Since the Bernanke announcement on the 7th the high yield has gone from 0.82% set on 5/22 to 1.03%! Libor update: 0.275% 3 mos., 0.410% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.53% +1; UK 2.03% +1; France 2.13% +2, Italy 4.28% -8; Spain 4.28% -8; Portugal 6.20% +22; Greece 9.28%! +10 vs 9.00% vs 9.05% vs 8.83% vs 9.11% vs 9.20%!!! vs 8.80% vs 8.54% vs 8.39% vs 8.63% vs 8.54% vs 7.98% vs 7.97% vs 7.94% vs 7.96% vs 8.47% – it has broken down from the rally! Recent range 7.94% to 12.57%. Japan 0.84% +2.  

Gold closed strong yesterday breaking a string of three straight ‘inside days – RARE! It closed above $1400 after 2 days below at $1415.80 +$17.30! 5/30’s intraday high was $1417.70, highest since 5/15.  It has been down 12 of the last 19 sessions following 5/20’s intraday low of $1338, lowest since 4/18. 5/10’s high of $1487.20 was highest since 4/12. 4/16’s intraday low of $1321.50 – was lowest since Sept. ’10. Resistance remains at the 40 day/50 day: $1423-1454 – still falling rapidly! Overnight it is crushed again at $1382.50 -$28.40 – ouch! Crude closed solidly higher at $94.76 +$1.02, sasfely above the 40/50 day again…three days after putting in an intraday low of $91.26 – lowest since 5/2! It remains above the 200 day with just one day below since 5/1, making it major support at $92.28. It is between the 40/50 day (93.23-93.60), 7 days after a high of $95.92 – highest since 5/22!  The rally high is $97.11 set 5/20, nearing a 12 month high! Overnight $94.34 +.60. 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The range is $85.61-$97.80 since June 29, 2012!!!!

Some random thoughts:

Can stocks hold up until the end of the quarter? …till options expiry on the 21st? All TB knows is that it isn’t safe for man nor beast to speculate on this market now – seriously, you can’t call it investing!

Have fun weekend!

TB

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