12/30/13…ok, who looked down?…’fess up!

Joke of the Day from the Friar’s Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: For every set of horseshoes human beings use for luck, somewhere in this world there’s a barefoot horse.” – Allan Sherman…wait…aren’t there six in a set??? That’s one and a half horses!…and what about rabbit’s feet? They sure weren’t lucky for the rabbit! TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Energy is eternal delight.” – William Blake…especially if you own a freaking ‘ fraking’ company

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the December ISM Manufacturing Survey (Thursday). We will also get the December Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), October Case-Shiller Home Prices, December Consumer Confidence, and December ISM Chicago Survey (Tuesday), December Construction Spending (Thursday) and December Motor Vehicle Sales (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Italian Bonds Advance After Sale as Yen Weakens, European Stocks Retreat

*Paulson’s Funds Get $490 Million From ‘the Mooch’ after Shift to Equities

*Treasuries Love Affair Endures to Buyers Reeling From First Loss Since ’09 – endures?

*Stocks $3.7 Trillion Year Crushes Bonds by Most Ever as Fund Flows Recover

*Your Idle Lexus for Rent Seen Sparking U.S. Productivity Revival – www.relayrides.com

*Crocs Shares Rise as Blackstone Makes $200 Million Investment in Shoe Maker

*Turkish Lira Gains With Stocks as Investors See Political Tensions Rising

*Pipeline Delays Make Canadian Energy Bonds Worst Among G7 Countries.  

*Daimler Electrics Get Fake Vroom to Thwart Silent Threat to Walkers – LMAO!!!

*Deadliest Frat’s Icy ‘Torture’ of Freshman Recruits Evokes Tarantino Films – finally!

*Suicide Bombings Kill at Least 30 in South Russia Before Winter Olympics

*Kerry Under Pressure to Show Peace-Deal Progress in 10th Visit to Mideast

*Unemployment Benefits Lapse Severs Lifeline for Longtime Jobless in U.S. – tragic!

 Turkey’s Economic Vulnerability Revealed as Graft Woes Split Erdogan Party – sad!

*Ex-Formula One Champion Schumacher Critical After Ski Crash – helmet on, hit rock!

Friday’s Market Summary:

The Dow surged to yet another record high, it’s sixth straight, at 16529.27 points higher but then a funny thing happened…someone looked down!!! It closed at 16478.41, 1-1/2 half points below Thursday’s record high close…hmmm! Volume was steady at 2.04B shares vs 1.97B vs 1.3B – a 12-month low of Christmas Eve’s shortened session. REAL NYSE Volume was also steady at a WEAK 424M shares vs 421M – second lowest in last 12-months following Tuesday’s 12-month low of just 272M – compare and contrast to the 12 month average of 720M shares! The week’s average was a pathetic 432M shares! Disregard everything that happened the last three sessions and do yourself and your clients a favor and question how confident you are that the ‘rally’ (sic) will continue past January. Some very disturbing articles over weekend on equities being overbought.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 were FLAT, while the rest were off 0.1.03% except Dow Utliites +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.3%. Breadth/Advance declines were narrow and mixed with both Nasdaq indictors negative. The VIX rose slightly but remains extremely low at 12.48 +.15…heavy call buying vs puts…hmmmm!

Repeating: Market mavens will recall that 2007 was the year stock prices peaked (Dow and S&P on 10/11/07). But wait…there’s more as the TV hawkers might say: NYSE Financials peaked five months earlier on 6/4/07…and had fallen by 4% by then…the canary in the coal mine? You decide! Now perhaps, you see why TB follows financials so closely. He also watches the NDQ 100 closely…THAT index peaked on FEB 16th! In case you haven’t noticed the Nasdaq’s are slipping: 3 mos: +10.2%/11%; 12 mos. +39.6%/36.2% (note the Composite is higher than the 100. Now look at Apple, one of THE main reasons for the Nasdaq indices success (by the way it peaked on 12/26/07 but took that out on 10/19/09, way ahead of the market. For the 12 months it is up 16.7%; 3 mos 12.2% – and don’t forget it adds significantly to the S&P 500! Are we due for a 10-20% correction?…as always, you decide. Just don’t shrug it off…why do so many big money manager hold so much in cash?…if you said yield, well…you know!

The Nasdaq 100 lost 11 points vs +12 vs +3.4 vs +38 vs +32.5 vs -11 vs +40. Breadth was negative at -1.3x vs +3x vs +1.2x vs +2:1 vs +4:1. Five members lost more than an index point, while just two gained more than a point: FB -3.8; APPL -2.6 vs -3 vs -2 vs +3.4 vs -3.4 vs -2 vs +2.5 vs -4.9; AMZN -3 vs +2.1; MSFT -1.1 vs +2.7 vs +3.4 vs -1.1 vs +3.8 vs -2.4; GILD -1; BIDU +1.6; CSCO +1…as APPL goes, so goes…

Dow 30 – vs +0.8% vs +0.4% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; Dow Transports -0.2% vs +0.3% vs +0.4% vs +0.4% vs +1.1%; Russell 2000 -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs +0.9% vs +0.9%; Dow Utilities +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +1%; S&P 500 – vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs 0.5% vs +0.5%; Nasdaq Composite -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +1.2%; NDQ 100 -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.1% vs +1.1% vs +0.9%. Th-that’s all folks!

*NYSE Volume rose very slightly to 2.04B shares but from the 2nd lowest of the last 12 months: 1.97B from the 12-month low of 1.3B vs 2.83B vs 4.97B one of the three highest of all time on options expiry, vs 3.49B vs 4.29B. The record high (?) is the 4.97B shares of 12/20 and Q3 end of quarter while 11/29’s 1.59B is weakest of 2013). REAL NYSE Volume barely budged remaining at a well below average 424M shares vs 421M from the new 12-month low of 272M vs 611M vs 1.97B – highest since 9/20’s huge 2.06B shares, vs 701M vs 828M. The average for the week was a ‘weak’ 432M shares while the 12-month average is 720M shares. This year there have been just TEN 1B+ share sessions! There have been 39 800M+ shares in 2013: 18 up, 19 down, three mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They fell sharply to 445 vs 659 vs 608 vs 698 vs 550 vs 304. Recent high is a super-strong 890!!! New lows rose but remain low at 76 vs  60 vs 44 vs 68 vs 81 vs 127 vs 131. Recent high is 353; low is 35!

  1. Advance/Declines were mixed: +1.1x vs +1.2x vs +2x vs +2.4x vs +3.1x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.1x vs +1.6x vs +2.6x vs +2.6x (recent -4x!!! to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: +1.6x vs +2x vs +3.1x vs +2.9x vs +2.3x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -1.4x vs +1.2x vs +3x vs +4.3x vs +4.6x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials rose 0.1% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.7% vs +0.5%. BofA 3rd most active (TWTR most active -13%!): +0.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.1% vs +0.6% vs -1%!, closing at $15.67 +.02. 11/25’s 12-month high was $15.98, highest since 6/1/10. Brokers -0.4% vs +0.5% vs -0.3% vs +0.9% vs +1.8%; KBW Banks -0.1% vs – vs +0.2% vs +0.9% vs +0.5%; Nasdaq Banks -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +1.4%! vs +1.3%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) rose slightly but remains very low at 12.48 +.15 The range was 12.20-12.59!!! Thursday’s 11.69 is lowest since 3/15/13!!! High for last week was 16.67! It is well below the 40/50 day m/a’s: 13.58/13.52, while the 200 day is 14.39. The recent range is 11.83-21.01!!! It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

Bonds lost ground again! 30 yr closed at 3.94 -1/4 while the 10 yr closed at 3.00%!!! -1/16. Long TIP closed 1.63% -1/8. Overnight they are rallying somewhat from multi-year highs…not seen since 8/3/11!!! Will 4% hold on the long bond? 3% on 10’s? 10yr 2.98% +1/8 (new recent range 1.63% to 3.02%), and the 30 yr 3.92% +5/16 (and its recent range 2.67% to 3.97%). The long TIP is 1.60% +7/16. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. New recent high yield: 1.64%! Libor update: 0.247% 3 mos, 0.349% 6 mos. (both remain just above record lows!). Foreign bond yields mixed: Germany 1.94% -1; UK 3.02% -5; France 2.57% +1; Italy 4.120% -8!!!; Spain 4.16% -5; Portugal 5.97% +1; Greece 8.14% -4 vs +15!!! vs -16 vs -11 vs -3 vs -11! Recently: 7.71% – 12.57%. Japan …0.73%!!! +4!!! Yen at multi-year low…traded at 105.26 overnight!!! Weakest since 10/1/08!!!

Gold continue to languish at weak levels for the fourth straight very narrow range day but $1200 continues to hold, closing at $1214.00 +$1.70. A week ago Friday’s low was $1188…at least still above Thursday’s $1186 – LOWEST since 12/31/02. Recent high is $1375.40 on 9/19. $1200 is sup/res, and $1300, psychological resistance with major res at the 40 day ($1253!) and the 50 day ($1271!) and falling! The 200 day is a $1356. Overnight it is slightly lower at $1207.00 -$7, low $1200.

Crude also traded in another narrow range, closing slightly higher at $100.32 +.77 BUT highest close and first above $100 since 10/21!. Last Wednesday’s low was $96.26, lowest since 12/3. On 11/27 it printed a new low of $91.77, lowest since 6/3!!! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It remains above the 40 day m/a ($95.82) and the 50 day (96.34), both major support! The 200 day is $98.96, and also major sup/res! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly lower at $100.03 -.29.

Overnight markets:

European markets lower, Asian markets higher: UK -0.4% vs closed vs +0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; France -0.1% vs closed vs +0.1% vs – vs +0.1%; Germany -0.4% vs closed vs +0.9% vs +0.6% vs +0.5%; Japan +0.7% vs – vs +1% vs +0.1% vs closed; Hang Seng – vs +0.3% vs closed vs +1.1% vs +0.5%; Korea +0.5% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.7%; India -0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.2% vs -0.3% vs +0.1%. U.S. stock futures higher in an extremely tight range: DOW +3 (range 27); SPX -0.60 (3); NDQ -6.25 (9) – want to be an o/n futures trader???

Some random thoughts:

If you want to know more about Scientology’s shame (TB just finished the book), the Tampa Bay Times did and investigative three part series this month…check it out…it is very shocking.

Still a bull??? Then read this and decide if that is the right way to ring in the new year.

Investing advice for 2014 – don’t chase 2013!

Ah, you love hedge funds? The smart money…think again…AND note that many of them are shifting to ‘long only’ for 2014! Is that a good strategy? Who cares when the downside is earning 2% and the upside is 20% of any and all gains! Capische?

hedge-funds-lose-out-to-equities–again

Only two more trading days in 2013…don’t do anything stupid!

TB

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