10/8/13…doesn’t anyone care? Just given up?

NOTE: there will be no blog from 10/9-10/19 as TB will be in Peru.

 Today’s Quote from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “The man with the best job in the country is the vice president. All he has to do is get up every morning and say, “how’s the president.” – Will Rogers…a very wise man indeed. TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It’s not what you look at that matters, it’s what you see.” – Henry David Thoreau…what do you see? A proud nation??? TB

Always important, the Fed Minutes will be the highlight of the week.   We expect those to be released despite the shutdown.   Below is what will and won’t be reported this week if the  government partial shutdown continues:

TUESDAY – 10/8: • International Trade: no; • JOLTs: no

WEDNESDAY – 10/9: • MBA Mortgage Applications: yes; • Wholesale Inventories: no; • Fed Minutes: yes

THURSDAY – 10/10: • Weekly Jobless Claims: yes; • Import & Export Prices: no; • Treasury Budget: no

FRIDAY – 10/11: • Retail Sales: no; • PPI: no; • Michigan Consumer Sentiment: yes; • Business Inventories: no

Releases postponed last week: • Construction spending; • Factory orders; • Employment Situation

Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Bloomberg Top Stories:

 *Morgan Stanley Seen Leading U.S. Banks in Profit Gains Amid Trading Slump

*World’s Biggest Pension Fund Faces Risk of Losses on Bonds From Abenomics

*Stocks in Europe Decline With Treasuries as Yen Weakens, Crude Advances

*Specter of U.S. Default Leads Japan to Join China Warning Over Treasuries – !!!

*JPMorgan Lifts Junk Forecast as Fiscal Deadlock Aids Bonds

*Steak No More as Ireland’s Economic Rebound Skips Yeats Country

*Reserve Managers Spend $30.3 Billion Adding Loonies to Australian Dollars

*Managed Futures Cost Investors Their Profits as Fees Wipe Away Fund Gains

*Shutdown Merges With Debt-Ceiling Debate as Senators Look for Strategies

*Robot Surgery Damaging Patients Rises With Aggressive Intuitive Marketing

*Pint-Sized Paycheck for Furloughed U.S. Worker Juggling Full-Sized Bills

*Legal-Marijuana Votes Spreading in U.S. West a More States Weigh Ballots

Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

 

Volume declined again to 2.57B shares from 2.78B vs 3.25B shares where it had resided for FOUR straight sessions. All indices were negative, led by the Russell 2000 small cap -1.2%! and closely followed by Dow Transports -1.1%. The only performer better than down 0.8% was Dow Utilities -0.04%. Oh, the sub-index, NYSE Financials declined by1% and look: NYSE Brokers -1.6%!, KBW Banks -1.8%!, Nasdaq Banks -1.5%! A trifecta!

The Nasdaq 100 continues to see-saw losing 27 points vs +29 vs -39.4 vs -0.2 vs +35 vs -12 vs -3.7 vs +25.5 points with 10 members moving by more than a point – only one up! Decliners ran -4:1 vs +9:1 vs -19:1!!! Let’s look again at the leaders and their changes over the past several sessions that they were leaders: MSFT -4.1 vs n/a vs +2.5 vs +2 vs +3.9 vs +2.1 vs -2.5 vs -6.9 vs +2.2 vs +3 vs +1 vs -1.4 vs +2; AMZN -3.7 vs +1.7 vs -2.4 vs +5.4 vs -1.4 vs +2.2 vs -2 vs +1.7; AMGN -1.8 vs +1.3 vs -1 vs -1.4;  GILD -1.7 vs +1.8 vs -1.2; GOOG –1.6 vs -1 vs -2.8 vs +2.9 vs -2.3, n/a -4.1, +1.2,-1.2, +4.2; -1.5; QCOM -1.3 vs +1.4; CELG -1.2 vs +1.3 vs -1.2; EBAY -1.2; CMCSA -1; and now the contrarian… APPL +3.8!!! vs n/a vs -5 vs +1.3 vs +9.1 vs +4.9 vs -2.8 vs +3.8 vs -6.1 vs -1.7 vs +19.2!!! vs -4.4 vs +6.4 vs +7.9 vs +4.2 vs -12.3 vs -6.5.  

Advance/Declines and Breadth were both negative. New 52 week highs were halved while new lows rose modestly but remain weak. VIX reversed again soaring to a new recent high and closed there: 19.41!!! closed at 16.74 -.93. Unpredictable, especially without payrolls!

Bonds closed slightly better.  Crude closed lower falling intraday to $101.86 but at least the new double bottom at $101.05 held and is major support – lowest since 7/5! Gold closed higher and safely above $1300…at least for now!

Dow 30 -0.9% vs +0.5% vs -0.9% vs -0.4% vs +0.4%; Dow Transports -1.1% vs +0.5% vs -1.1% vs -0.4% vs  +1.4%; Russell 2000 -1.2% vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -0.5% vs +1.3%; Dow Utilities -0.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.4%; S&P 500 -0.9% vs +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs +0.8%; Nasdaq Composite -1% vs +0.9% vs -1.1% vs -0.1% vs +1.2%; NDQ 100 -0.8% vs +0.9% vs -1.2% vs flat vs +1.1%.

*NYSE Volume declined again to a weak 2.57B shares vs 2.78B after being steady 3.25B for four days (Record high (?) 4.82B shares on Sept. options expiry while 2.52B is 4th weakest of 20131.96B is the low). REAL NYSE Volume remained at a very weak 595M shares vs 597M vs 703M vs 691M vs 717M vs 878M (2.06B shares also on Sept. expiry was 3rd highest ever (6/30/06 3.38B; 7/12/02 2.29B while 482M on 7/3 in a shortened trading session is the 2013 low). The 12-month average is 719M shares. The average since 6/28’s 1.75B share day, is just 692M shares, ranging from 482M to 2.025B shares on 9/20. There have been just EIGHT 1B+ share sessions! There have been 33 800M+ shares in 2013: 13 up, 18 down, and two mixed.

*New 52 week highs have ranged from 33-864. They were halved to 142 vs 289 vs 232 vs 297 vs 424. New lows rose to 73 vs 56 vs 69 vs 64 vs 48 vs 64 vs  51 – weak!

  1. Advance/Declines were negative: -3.6x vs +1.9x vs -3.7x vs -1.3x vs +2.6x (recent range -17.5x to +6x) on NYSE and -2.9x vs +2.2x vs -2.8x vs -1.5x vs +2.6x (recent -3.5x to +3.8x). Breadth was similar: -2.9x vs +2.6x vs -4x! vs +1.4x vs +3.7x vs -2.2x (recent -18.6x!!! to +7.2x!!!) on NYSE and -2.5x vs +3.5x vs -3.6x vs +1.2x vs +3.4x vs -1.7x (recent -12.8x to +6.5x).  
  2. NYSE Financials plunged by 1% vs +0.7% vs -0.8% vs flat vs +0.9%. BofA most active and after gapping down on the open broke $14, -1.7%!!! vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +1.2% vs +0.7%, closing at $13.81 -.24 – barely above the lowest levels since 8/30! It has struggled since hitting $15.03 on 8/1 – highest since Jan. 14 and major res. Brokers -1.6%! vs +1.1% vs -1.2% vs -1% vs +0.6%; KBW Banks -1.8%!!! vs +1.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +0.9%; Nasdaq Banks -1.5%!!! vs +0.8% vs -0.5% vs -1.1% vs +1.2% vs +0.3%.
  3. Volatility (S&P VIX) gapped up on the open surging to 19.41 +2.67!!! closing at the high a day after it surged to nearly 19 and closing at 17.67 – highest close since 6/24!!! Range was at 18.06 to 19.41. Another gap remains from 9/28 at 14.62-16.16 and now major support. On 8/30 it closed at 17.01 but a week prior it was at 13.98. The recent range is now 11.83-19.41. It peaked at 22.79 on 12/28/12. It is now well above the 40 day (15.10), the 50 day (14.65) and the 200 day (14.47)…ytd the range is 11.05 (3/14) to 21.92 (6/24)!

European stocks weaker, Asia up: UK -0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.1% vs -0.5% vs -0.6%; France -0.4% vs -0.7% vs +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.8%; Germany -0.1% vs -0.9% vs +0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.6%; Japan +0.3% vs -1.2%! vs -0.9% vs -0.1% vs -2.2%; Hang Seng +0.9% vs -0.7% vs -0.3% vs +1% vs +0.6%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.1% vs -0.1% vs flat two days; India +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs +2% vs closed. U.S. equity futures little changed and back to a narrow range: DOW +6; SPX +1.10; NDQ +3.50.

Bonds closed modestly better. Overnight they are weaker again: 10 yr Treasury 2.65% -3/16 (recent range 2.99% to 1.63%!!!), and the 30 yr range 2.67% to 3.90%, 3.72% -7/16. The long TIP is 1.37% -1/2. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5. Recent high yield: 1.63%! Libor update: 0.244% 3 mos, 0.366% 6 mos.  Both at or setting new record lows: 3 mo. 0.243% and the 6 mos. 3.666%, respectively. Foreign bond yields little changes and mixed – ex-Greece. Germany 1.83% +2; UK 2.72% +1; France 2.35% +2; Italy 4.34% +5; Spain 4.27% +7; Portugal 6.21% -5; Greece 8.97% +15 vs 9.10% vs 8.98% vs 8.85%!!! -21!!! vs 9.22% vs 9.15%!!! -30!!! vs 9.48% vs 9.59 vs 9.71%  +10 vs 9.57%!!! -26!!! vs 9.79% -25 vs 10.13 Recent range: 8.04%-12.57%. Japan 0.65% +1.

Gold closed higher at $1325.10 +$15.20 and remains safely above $1300, no mean feat after putting in a low of $1276.80 on 10/2 – lowest since 8/8 – then closing above $1300 at $1320.70. Overnight it is lower at $1320.30 -$4.80. Recent high was $1375.40 on 9/19.  6/27’s intraday low was $1179.40 – lowest since at least 2011 and critical support. $1300 remains psychological support, while the 40 day ($1353) and the 50 day ($1344) are MAJOR RESISTANCE. The 200 day is at $1462.

Crude closed closed weaker making 10 of the last 12 sessions down days closing at $103.03 -.81 – most disturbing was the low print of $101.86 but above Wednesday’s intraday low of $101.06, a double bottom and thus major support – lowest since 7/5!!! 9/18’s session high was $108.49 from $104.94! Recent rally high and close is $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is way below the 40/50 day m/a’s ($106.11-105.95), and crossed! The 200 day ($98.04) is major support!!! 4/18’s low of $85.61 was lowest since 12/11! Major Res is the spike to $112.24 on 8/28. That move was immediately rejected! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is modestly higher at $103.65 +.62.

Some random thoughts:

Another day of insanity in what was once known as the greatest country in the world. A country where pols have managed to manipulate their own structure to favor incumbents but had the unintended consequence of giving cover to all those ‘looney tunes’ operatives like Sen. Cruz of the great state of Texas (sic), to hold the country hostage…after all they are only doing what their electorate wants them to. Can we act as Americans…actually long past time…not as ideologues? One can hope but money rules and judging from the money that has poured into Cruz’ war chest, ‘it’s only just begun’ to paraphrase the song.

Finally, yesterday TB caught a discussion on banks on CNBC. Everyone loved them and especially JPMorgan…the finest bank in the world…and the most corrupt it would appear. The message of ethics stems from the top…always and through the rewards given to those who have taken advantage of everyone from an advisor whose accounts they purchased to municipalities, and so much more, the message is clear: make money at any cost. To hell with ethics. Yet, not one of the analysts commenting had even one negative thing to say abut JPMorgan OR Jamie Dimon. Corruption corrupts, right?

TB is thankful that he will be ‘out of country’ for the next ten days to Peru which is beginning to look more civilized than we are…they have a socialist government that has instituted economic reforms making it one of the best economies in South America.

Hasta la vista, baby!!!

TB

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