3/26/13…redistrict this!

From the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Nowadays you can’t even spank your kids. No, gotta give ‘em time-out. My dad would take time out from his busy day…to whip our ass.” – Jeff Foxworthy

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “True strength is delicate.” – Louise Nevelson

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast on Autos, Planes

*Swaps Association Probed in Broader EU Investigation of Credit Derivatives – no!

*U.S. Index Futures Climb With Copper as Durable Goods Orders Top Estimates

*Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Gain Most Since June 2006, Case-Shiller Says

*Sarris Tries to Muffle Calls for Cyprus Exit From Euro Following Bailout

*German Bunds Show True Cypriot Backlash With Italy Insulated

*Home Values in U.S. Highest Since ’07 as Houses Make Cash Again

*Dallas Fed’s Fisher Says He Favors Reduced Asset Purchases on U.S. Recovery – !!!

*Wal-Mart Loses Premium to Target as Empty Shelves Deter Customers

*Ireland Lures Germans With EBay as Celtic Tiger Rouses From Recession Woes

*Colorado Sheriffs Join Peers Nationally Saying Gun Laws Aren’t Enforceable


…the seesaw effect continues on low but rising volume as all indices declined, offsetting Friday’s modest gains. Transports lost the most – and were biggest mover for a second straight day: -0.7% vs +1% vs -0.4% loss, all indices were up, but…

*Volume rose slightly – the typical pattern higher on declines than gains

*Dow -0.4% vs +0.6%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp -03% vs +0.7%, 100 -0.4% vs +0.9%, Russell 2000 FLAT vs +0.3%

*Dow Utilities -0.1% vs +0.2% vs +0.8%. NYSE Financials -0.6% vs +0.6% twice!

*Advance/declines and breadth were all negative: New Highs 512(?) vs 356 vs 513,  New Lows rose to 56 vs 33 vs 36…strange, no?

*Volatility (VIX) swung wildly falling to 12.39 then to 14.61, closing 13.74, on Cyprus???…closed above 40/50 day m/a’s. You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.

NYSE Volume rose as stocks fell, 3.16B vs 2.92B shares (lowest since 2/11’s 267M) vs 3.32B vs 3.74B vs 3.15B vs 4.93B (2013 high), average of last 17 sessions is 3.5B shares – weak! Real NYSE volume also rose modestly to 655M share vs 620M, lowest since 2/11 vs 673M vs 731M vs 676M vs 1.825B (new 12-month high!!!). The range since 2/11 is 497 to 1.83B with an average of 742M shares. Last Friday’s 1.83B shares was second only to 12/21’s 12 mo. high of 1.88B shares. Note that Friday (options expiry) was the only day since 2/28 to register over 1B shares with no other sessions reaching anywhere near 800M shares!!! Ave vol. 12 mos. 740M, ytd 722M. There have been just NINE 800+M shares in 2013.

  1. new 52 week highs which have ranged from 121-709, rose despite the selloff to 512 vs 356 (on a big rally???) vs 531 vs 328 vs 282 vs 584 vs 652 vs 410 vs 413 vs 560 vs 630. New lows rose to 56 vs 33 vs 36 vs 43 vs 50; recent high 98.
  2. Advance/Declines were negative for the fourth day in six at-1.4x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x! vs-1.3x vs -1.5x on NYSE and -1.1x vs +1.5x vs +2.4x vs -1.4x vs -1.9x on Nasdaq. Breadth was similar at -2.2x vs +1.8x vs +3.2x! vs -1.6x vs -2.6x! on NYSE and -1.5x vs +1.3x vs +3.5x! vs -1.8x vs -2.3x! on Nasdaq.
  3. The Dow fell 0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs flat. All indices were negative. The once highflying Russell 2000 was FLAT vs +0.3% vs +1%.
  4. NYSE Financials fell by 0.6% vs +0.6% two days -0.7% vs -1.1%, hard hit brokers led the way at -1.2% vs flat vs +1.6%! vs -0.7% vs -1.1% vs -0.2%. BofA THE most active: -1.3%! vs -0.1% vs +0.6% vs +1% vs -0.1% vs +3.8% – the range is $11.11, on 12/17 to $12.78 Thursday! Note: 11 cents is a 1% change!!!  GE -0.6% vs +0.3% vs +0.6%. Citi fell by 1.6% on a ‘key reversal’ while JPM fell 0.5% – since its 12 month high on 3/14, and is off 4.9% since. Brokers look ugly and since this rally was led by financials, bad news: GS -0.3% but also on a ‘key reversal’; MS -0.9%; UBS -1.1%. Other banks: WFC flat but off 2.6% since its high on 3/15; USB +0.3%….a bank that is not caught in the fray! Since the sectors high on 3/15, NYSE Financials are -2.4%. At that point they were up 9.6% ytd, now +6.8% and up 15.8% from a year ago, now 13.3%. Compare to the Dow which is the best index, up 10.25% ytd vs +9.1% for the trailing 12 months.
  5. Lastly volatility (S&P VIX), which gapped up on the open 3/18(from a multi-year low!!!), was…well…volatile swinging from 12.39 to 14.61 on a HUGE outside day closing at 13.74 which put it back above the 40/50 day m/a’s, vs 13.57 vs 13.99 vs 12.67 vs 14.39 vs 13.36 vs 11.30 (12 mo low), with a high of 15.40 last Thursday of 15.40, highest since 3/4. It closed at 13.74 +.17. What would you say to this: deal…or no deal?

Global equity markets mixed as markets try to digest Cyprus impact: UK +0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.3% vs flat; France +0.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.2% vs +1.2% vs -0.6%; Germany +0.1% vs +1.2% vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs -0.3%; Japan -0.6% vs +1.7% vs +1.3% vs closed vs +2%!!!; Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.6% vs -0.1% vs +1% vs -0.2%; Kospi +0.3% vs +1.5% vs -0.4% vs -1% vs +0.5%; India +0.1% vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!!. U.S. stock futures slightly higher, trading in a very narrow range: DOW +24; SPX +3; NDQ +6.25 – indecisive??? …lack of conviction???…concern???

Bonds rallied modestly as stocks fell yesterday but are off overnight: 10 yr Treasury 1.93% -1/8 vs 1.91% (old range was 2.06% to 1.85%), and the 30 yr’s 3.26% to 3.05%, closed 3.14%, now 3.15% -1/8. The long Tip, wich made it to 0.60% last Tuesday is now back to 0.63%-1/8, the high yield was 0.66%. Libor update: 0.243% 3 mos., 0.446% 6 mos. Foreign bond yields mixed, after falling sharply yesterday (but not for the problem countries which rose sharply):

Germany 1.35% +2; UK 1.81% +1; Italy 4.56% -4; Spain 4.90% -3; Portugal 6.07% +12; Greece 11.66% +16 vs 11.37% vs 11.48% vs 11.21% vs 11.06% vs 10.58%. Anyone want to be a foreign bond trader?

Gold closed slightly lower after putting in the lowest level since 3/15: $1590, but managed to remain above $1600 for a fifth day – long of tooth? It is still below resistance and way below the 1/17 high of $1699.90. It closed at $1606.50 -$1.50, a day after an intraday high of $1616.50, almost to the 40 day!  2/21/13’s low was $1554.30 – not seen since May 2012! Last time it was below $1500 was Sept. 2011. Overnight it is OFF $7.50 to $1599!!! $1600 is critical! The total breakdown through the 40/50/200 day m/a’s puts major resistance $1618-1671, with major support at $1600, a double bottom from 8/14-15, also a psychological level. Crude rallied and closed $94.81 +$1.10, with a session high of $95.85, highest since 2/20! It now has a range of $91.60-$95.85 since 3/12! The recent low is $89.33, lowest since 12/26, set on March 4. Overnight it is $95.56 +.75 – well above the just converged and crossed 50 day ($94.38), and 50 day ($94.24)!

 

Some not so random thoughts (my opinions…you make your own):

TB felt much better after that long rant yesterday. He would feel even better if Congress would start representing the people, instead of lobbyists, special interests and ‘clusters’ of their constituents. That is not how the founding fathers perceived things. Of course they didn’t expect people to run for office and then spend the rest of their lives there and THEN retire on a pension!!! Whatever happened to public service for the sake of well…public service. No, it is all about them!

It wouldn’t be so bad if just the good ones remain but the redistricting (aka gerrymandering) to keep incumbents in place…so long as they are members of ‘your’ party…and the dealmaking extends to give and take with the loser being the voter.

This harkens back to California’s attempt at redistricting and bypassing the legislature by having a panel of judges draw up the districts. OMG…you would trust this to judges??? How could you when YOU elected your representative who only has your interests at heart. Bullroar!!! He has HIS interests at heart (in the case of Michele Bachmann, it is HERS…she is now being investigated by the House Ethics Committee over improper use of PAC funds to pay her presidential staff. What about her misrepresentations ‘based on’ her knowledge by being on the House Permanent Intelligence (sic) Committee???).

One final question: can we once again – ever – become a nation of the people, by the people and for the people??? Not unless you get active and do something about it!

Have a great day!

TB

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