Traderbill's Financial Markets Weblog

AT 10:30am EST today, Bloomberg will be having a debate on Capitalism from the Aspen Conference in NYC…it would behoove you to watch it! TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Truth exists only lies have to be invented.” – George Braque…at least that is something politicians can do right! TB

TB’s Quote of the Day: “We’re on the Boulevard of broken taillights with the fender benders and the bumper jumpers.” – Panther Pierce on Dick Whittinghill – L.A. jock on KMPC for nearly three decades in the 60’s and early ‘70’s…did you Whittinghill this morning? Does anyone remember Helen Trump and her suitor who was always ‘stepping on her stoop, reaching for her knocker.” Foster Brooks also appeared frequently hiccup!

…Warren did it!!! …and TB aced it…ok, a 95 because he told you BNI would take the Transports higher…had the stock gone to the $100 bid that alone would have taken the Dow Transports up 129…but no…it was up 195 as our best and brightest deemed that if Warren was buying the rails they should too! What did he know that they didn’t? So here’s the scoreboard on the close: BNI +108; UNP +22; CSX +16; NSC +13…lemme see that is uh….159 of 190 points…sounds about right, WRONG! Can’t even call it short covering as the Transports have been the ‘canary’ so it doesn’t seem there would be THAT many shorts. But what really happened? NOTHING!!! – a temporizing bid!

Wouldn’t it have been incredible with the Dow Transports up 5.3% for the rest of the market to have been down 1% or more? Well, we did the next best thing. All other indices were up or down just a fraction except NYSE Energy (+1%), AMEX Composite (+0.9%), Barron’s 400 (+1.2%), and the Russell 2000 small cap (+1.5%). In sectors; the SOX closed -1.3% after gapping down on the open and then struggling back and filling it but not much more, while Oil Services surged 2.9%. But the big loser in Energy was XOM which cost 10 index points!

Now get this: Dow Industrials, both Nasdaq indices, S&P 500, and Dow Utilities all had INSIDE days (lower high and higher low than prior day) meaning a total lack of conviction! The AMEX Composite had a ‘slight’ positive key reversal but more or less parallel to Monday as did the Barron’s 400. Also, despite that 5.3% gain, the Dow Transports high was STILL below BOTH the 40 and 50 day moving average. Very sick!

Once again we have a stupid reason for a rally in the overnight market: the weaker dollar and speculation the Fed will continue to keep rates low…hello??? Is THAT a good reason for a rally? Be careful as this sell-off is NOT over yet…not by a farsight!

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As the aforementioned Dick Whittinghill would say, TB was ‘out among ‘em’ last night and met some interesting people at an iShares ETF conference in the City…sorry New York but there is only ONE city – Baghdad by the Bay!

In the other city, can you believe Michael Bloomberg getting elected Mayor for a third term??? He won by only a 4% margin…is that all you get for spending $100 million of your own money for the privilege? TB likes Mike but what kind of ego must have to spend that much money …to be DA MAYOR (oops, that was Willie Brown). He might have had a higher margin if he gave $100 to a million voters, no? There is something wrong when a mayoral race costs that much…and for him to spend the money on it!

The GOP is crowing over the election results…well they shouldn’t be…anymore when the Dems took charge in the ’98 election (1998 NOT 1888…TB is old but not THAT old!). It was a vote against the government…and if the GOP can’t figure that out let Rush crow all he wants because they aren’t bringing in the moderates…THEY are fed up with both parties!

Locally, Congressperson Ellen Tauscher’s empty seat (no pun intended), due to her taking an appointment as Asst. Secretary of State…was decided last night with political hack and crony John Garamendi (D) not winning handily in a run-off election with a GOP candidate (Harmer…harmless?) in a hugely Democratic district….TB found that not only he but several others voted GOP just so he wouldn’t get so damned smug…he is NOT what government needs…collects a state pension from the legislature, former insurance commissioner…does that tell you anything…and get this: he is flying back to D.C. today so he can sworn in tomorrow and be able to vote on Friday…bet he spent a lot of time reviewing whatever it is he is going to vote for…or getting instructions from Pelosi? Sorry to be so cynical but that’s the way it is.

To TB the votes in Virginia, New York etc, are similar to TB’s ‘moral’ vote. We are being screwed…D.C. is still owned by the lobbyists so just business as usual.

As for John Corzine…awwww…but he was beaten by Republican Chris Christie…hmmm did they confuse the name with Christy Todd Whitman? One never knows when dealing with the mentality of the electorate! Why isn’t TB crying for him? Well…as former Chairman of Goldman he knows what goes on in municipal finance…so early this year he said that all state and local government contracts should be ‘competitive bidding’…except for municipal bond deals….the most corrupt of all!

Back to the iShares conference…they had a political analyst from D.C. (natch) to talk about legislation being discussed …don’t worry…their bark is worse than their bite. Talking over cocktails, TB asked how we get out of this mess with the corruption in the Capitol…that Citi and BofA are using our money to stop banking reformas well as JPM and others. He said he didn’t know. Follow-up: doesn’t it make you sick to watch up close and personal? He said that from the time he was a kid he was a political junkie so he just likes to watch…but says it is tough sometimes. Very politically correct!

Here is a closer for ya: US Bank had a mortgage in Rancho Murrieta (near Sacramento). A $1 million home in a very upscale area…pristine. The owners tried to sell…cut price to $850k…then had an offer at $650k…had a buyer…the bank rejected the offer…put it up at auction and bought it back….listed it for $450k…for 15 minutes had an offer and accepted same. The buyer? The son-in-law of the guy who was handling the foreclosure! The bank said it was all up and up…(down and down?). Now here’s the thing in this, to TB, illegal, transaction: they have now driven appraisals down in the area by more than $200,000….two sellers had to take their home off the market…and hopefully the bank had more mortgages there so they too can suffer….or sell to some employees kid! Now readers know that TB has always liked USB…well they are going to hear from him on this!.Here is their phone number thanks to Bloomie: 651-466-3000. Richard K. Davis is Chairman/President/CEO (and you know how TB thinks that should be banned). TB is sure eh would like to hear your views on the matter.

Have a good day and don’t let TB or anyone else do your thinking for you – ever!

TB

Trader Bill thinks it is clear to anyone reading these missives that they are merely commentaries…as he sees it…and do not necessarily reflect the views of anyone other than his own. Information is gathered from sources he has found reliable, but no guarantees of accuracy are implied. These are merely observations of events in the marketplace offering in an attempt to offer a non-mainstream viewpoint. Hope you find it useful. Copyright TBD Capital LLC, © November 4, 2009.