41-/18/14…markets closed…that’s a ‘good’ Friday – will update again Monday

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Ants can carry twenty times their own body weight, which is useful information if you are moving and you need help carrying a potato chip across town.” – Ron Darian

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The habit of giving only enhances the desire to give.” Walt Whitman…BUT the habit of TAKING creates GREED like the high-freaks! TB

US economic data in the past two weeks has been turning positive. The trend in jobless claims improved moderately, suggesting a stronger NFP number for the month of April. Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed but indicate a slight positive bias for ISM Manufacturing this month. Retail sales improved sharply in March but still indicate a softer Q1 GDP, current estimates are for 1.6% qoq growth.
Next week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the March Durable Goods Orders (March). We will also get March Leading Indicators (Monday), March Existing Home Sales and April Richmond Fed Manufacturing (Tuesday), March New Home Sales (Wednesday) and April Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service
Bloomberg Top Stories (Markets closed for Good Friday):
*Stocks in Russia Advance on Ukraine Deal as Ruble Weakens, Rubber Declines
*U.S. Said to Have Warned of More Russia Sanctions Before Ukraine Agreement
*High-Frequency Trader Virtu Financial Said Questioned in NY Inquiry – IPO postponed! Hah!
*Britons Struggle to Save for Home Down Payments as Property Prices Surge
*S&P 500 Index Posts Best Week Since July as Earnings Reports Top Estimates – ???
*Beermaking Goes Digital With Device by Former Microsoft Brew Crew
*Soviet Flag Never Stopped Flying in Territory Dreaming of Putin’s Embrace
*Ukraine Accord Brings Demand From U.S., EU for Russia to Reduce Tensions
*South Korea Seeks Arrest Warrants for Captain of Sunken Ferry, Two Crewmen
*Obama Says Health-Care Signups Reached 8 Million After Deadline Extended
*Divers Seeking Life Within Korean Ferry Beaten Back by Cold, Murky Water

*Thursday’s Market Summary Friday closed:

A fairly volatile day ending with not much to talk about. The Dow was -0.1%, the S&P +0.1%, Nasdaq Composite +0.3% BUT the 100 FLAT??? The winner was Dow Transports +0.6% followed closely by the Russell 2000…and finally stock bulls…Dow Utilities were the goat -1.1% BUT still far and away the leader as Transport became the only one in the black mtd and no other index is up ytd. Look at Utilities: STILL up 10.8% ytd AND 2% mtd!!! This may or may not be a ‘good’ Friday…the risk for Monday is to the downside as VIX fell again meaning positions are squared. Mea Culpa: TB thought it was options expiration Friday…it was the LAST one!!!
Thursday’s mixed session was on slightly higher volume of 3.31B shares vs 3.14B vs 3.72B while actual trades on the NYSE rose to a strong 834M shares but where was the rally? Wednesday’s 675M shares was lowest in TEN sessions from 746M (12 mo. ave. is 726M shares! …you do recall Tuesday, right? The one that was up about one-half percent but was led by Dow Utilities?
NYSE Financials rose 1.1% vs +1% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1% vs -2.1%, all due to Brokers up 1.1% vs +2%!!! vs +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -2% vs -2.8%!!!; KBW Banks DOWN 0.4% vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -3%!!! Nasdaq Banks +0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! BofA most active but hardly budged: +0.1% vs -1.6% vs +1.9% vs +1.5% vs -2.2%! vs -2.9%!!! vs +1.1%. Closed $16.15 +.02 – session low was $15.93 and it has been below $16 for 3 of the last 5 sessions, one of them the lowest since 12/31. No other active financials.
Advance/Declines were modestly positive but on a blah day…the NYSE was +1.4x vs +3.8% vs +1.6x vs +1.9x vs -2.5x vs -3.4x! , Nasdaq +1.8x vs +2.5x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.6x vs +3.3x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x vs -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! Nasdaq +1.6x vs +4.3x! vs +1.3x vs +1.3x vs -5x!!! Nasdaq Composite Advance/Declines were +1.8:1 vs +2.4:1 vs -1.1:1 vs +1.1:1! vs +4.6:1 vs 4.3:1! vs -7.8:1!!! on the Composite and by +1.6:1 vs +2.5:1 vs +1.5:1 vs +4.6:1 vs –44:1! vs -100:1!!! on the 100!!!
New 52 Week Highs rose again to a solid 191 vs 144 from a weak 88 vs 89 vs 42, while New Lows rose slightly to 57 vs 49 from 198!!! vs 135 vs 151! – 16 is the cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined for a FOURTH day to 13.36 -.82 and the while the range contacted to 13.07-14.17 vs 14.05-15.27 vs 15.47-17.50 vs 16.10-17.40!!! Last Friday’s range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14! The low of 12.60 just 10 days ago and lowest since Jan. 22!

Other sector comments:

Bonds: closed WEAK Thursday and down for the first time in SIX sessions – 11 days after the 10’s replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80%. (Close: 10 yr 2.76% -13/16; 30 yr 3.52% -1-1/2; TIP 1.20% -1-3//8). Overnight giving back all of those gains and a tad more: 10’s 2.65% -3/16; 30’s 3.46% -1/4; TIP 1.16% -3/8 Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.226% 3 mos.; 0.320%! 6 mos., both back at their record lows! The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08% -0.09%. Foreign bond markets closed…no sense without the U.S. Thursday: Germany 1.51% +3; UK 2.67% +4, – recent high 3.03%! France 1.98% +3; Italy 3.12% +3; Spain 3.08% +2; Portugal 3.71% +1; Greece 5.93% -15 vs 6.08% vs 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.59% –.

Gold closed Thursday, not only WEAK in a narrow ‘inside session’ but BELOW $1300 – first close below since 4/4!!! Wednesday’s low of $1284.40 formed a double bottom from 4/4! AND after trading to $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 just four days ago. It closed at $1293.40 -$9.70!!! 12 days ago it traded down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Now below all three moving averages and the psych support level of $1300 with first res at the 200 day $1299, then the 50 day $1318 and the 40 day $1325!!! – now off $75 in 24 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Major support at $1284.40, the double bottom from 4/4.

Crude closed at $104.30 +.54, also on an ‘inside’ session, two days after touching $102.91 – the day before that it traded up to $104.99, highest since March 4. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.39), then the 50 day ($101.26), followed by the 200 day at $100.84. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012.

Most global equity markets were closed Friday, except Japan +0.7% and Korea +0.6%. Thursday’s closes UK +0.6% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs – vs -1.1%! France +0.6% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs – vs -1.3%! Germany +1% vs – vs +0.8% vs -0.5% vs – vs -1.7%! Japan – vs +3%!!! vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs -2.4%!!! Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.6%! vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! Korea +0.6% vs – vs – vs -0.2% vs – vs -0.6%; India +1.6%! vs -0.9% vs-0.6% vs closed vs -0.4%. U.S. equity futures all closed

Spring is back from the recurring WINTER in Minnesota…sick of it!!!

Have a great Easter!

TB

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4/17/14…high frequency jinx create faux rally…payback tomorrow?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Never go to a doctor whose plants have died.” – Erma Bombeck

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Passion, though a bad regulator, is a powerful spring.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson…TB is reading ‘Last Call’ on Prohibition and that power is incredible.

TB Saiz: The old saying about Minnesota is wrong. It should be: we have four seasons: Winter, Winter, AND WINTER road repair! The last is the worst…trust me!!! Aarrgghh!!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Hover Near the Lowest Level Since 2007 – so pay ‘em!
*U.S. Stock-Index Futures Rise Amid Earning Results, Jobless Report…oh? See below!
*Goldman Sachs Beats Analysts’ Estimates on Increase in Investment Banking – nothing new!
*Morgan Stanley Exceeds Estimates on Surprise Jump in Fixed Income Revenue – Huh?
*High-Frequency Fightback Starts with Foreign Exchange Trading Random Pause – get ‘em!
*IBM Sales Drop Amid Shift to Cloud Weight on CEO Rometty’s Profit Goal
*Activist U.S. Fund Demands Board ouster at Anworth Family Mortgage REIT – TB met the father in London years ago, who turned over an un-innovative fund to his son…nothing to see here!
*GM Move to Freeze Ignition Suits Seen Cutting Customer Payouts by Billions – stop ‘em!
*Fed Repo Dominance Rises as Reverse Facility Caps Rates – huh?
*Detroit Seeks Debt-Reduction Plan Votes With ‘Divide and Conquer’ Strategy – worked for GOP
*Stop, Start, Start, Stop Is One Firm’s Answer to HFT Threat – beat them at their game!!!
*Blacklisted Putin Bank Trail Runs From Soviet Cash to Billionaire Buddies – the man is sick!!!
*Forcing Russia Out of Financial Markets Seen as Best U.S. Tool on Ukraine Crisis
*Korean Families Confront Park With 287 People Missing After Ferry Disaster
*Putin Vows to Fight for Compatriots in Ukraine as Officials Meet in Geneva – just like Hitler and the NATO response is similar! This is sick and getting sicker! Last time we got WWII!!!
*Divers at Blue Bow of Capsized Korean Ferry Stymied by Encroaching Cold – a tragedy!
*Keystone Foes Winning Fight for Celebrities That Backers Say Won’t Matter – probably right

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

Setting up for a ‘rock and roll’ options expiration this Friday. Why? You ask…because yesterday’s rally was back to low volume of 3.14B shares vs 3.72B Tuesday, and actual trades on the NYSE plunged to 675M shares, lowest in TEN sessions from 746M (12 mo. ave. is 726M shares! …you recall Tuesday, right? The one that was up about one-half percent but was led by Dow Utilities +1.3% vs +0.6% and up 11% ytd!!! Well, it was the weakest yesterday BUT still up 0.8% which makes it up 11.9% ytd and now 3.1% mtd!!! The only other index in the black for the month is Dow Transports +0.2% while they are up just 2.6% and every other closely watched index is RED. Not as in ‘red state’ by the way.
Back to yesterday, the winner was Dow Transports +1.7%! followed by the two Nasdaqs +1.3%, then the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 +1.1%, while the Dow rose 1%. Again, anyone who tells you they understand this market is either a damned fool or a liar…you choose.
NYSE Financials rose 1% vs +0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1% vs -2.1%, with Brokers up 2%!!! vs +0.8% vs +0.8% vs -2% vs -2.8%!!!; KBW Banks +0.3% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -3%!!! Nasdaq Banks +0.5% vs +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! BofA most active: -1.6% vs +1.9% vs +1.5% vs -2.2%! vs -2.9%!!! vs +1.1%. Volatile? Closed $16.13 -.26 – session low was $15.78 and it has been below $16 3 of the last 4 sessions, one of them the lowest since 12/31. No other active financials Citi off slightly, the rest up modestly. JPM +0.8%, USB -1.3%.
Advance/Declines were positive but not much meaning given the low volume…the NYSE was +3.8% vs +1.6x vs +1.9x vs -2.5x vs -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x, Nasdaq +2.5x vs -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! Breadth was similar: NYSE +3.3x vs +1.7x vs +2.9x vs -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! Nasdaq +4.3x! vs +1.3x vs +1.3x vs -5x; Nasdaq Advance/Declines were +2.4:1 vs -1.1:1 vs +1.1:1! vs +4.6:1 vs 4.3:1! vs -7.8:1!!! on the Composite and by +2.5:1 vs +1.5:1 vs +4.6:1 vs –44:1! vs -100:1!!! on the 100!!!
New 52 Week Highs rose to a respectable 144 from a weak 88 vs 89 vs 42 vs 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327, while New Lows plunged to 49 from 198!!! vs 135 vs 151! vs 91 – 16 is the cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined for a third day to a still slightly elevated 14.18 -1.43! while the range remained high at 14.05-15.27 vs 15.47-17.50 vs 16.10-17.40!!! Can;t wait for Friday!!! Last Friday’s range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14! The low of 12.60 just 9 days ago and lowest since Jan. 22! Bears watching…roar!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: closed slightly higher and haven’t been down in five sessions running– just 10 days after the 10’s replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80%. (Close: 10 yr 2.63% +1/16; 30 yr 3.45% +3/16; TIP 1.15% +5/8). Overnight giving back all of those gains and a tad more: 10’s 2.65% -3/16; 30’s 3.46% -1/4; TIP 1.16% -3/8 Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.226% 3 mos.; 0.320%! 6 mos., both back at their record lows! The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields little changed ex-Greece, which is sharply lower: Germany 1.49% +1; UK 2.64% +1, – recent high 3.03%! France 1.97% +2; Italy 3.11% +2; Spain 3.08% +2; Portugal 3.69% -3; Greece 5.93% -15 vs 6.08% vs 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.59% -1.

Gold closed almost even after trading weak after falling to $1284.40 (creating a double bottom from 4/4!) AND after trading to $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 just three days ago. Again, it barely made it back to $1300 and closed at $1303.50 +$3.20. 11 days ago it traded down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Now just a hair above the 200 day and the psych support level but below the 50 and 40 day. 3/4 was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $66 in 23 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support at the 200 day $1301 and res at the 50 day, $1318, then the 40 day, $1325. Major support at $1284.40 the double bottom from 4/4. Overnight little changed in an INSIDE session: $1303.20 -30.

Crude closed up a penny at $103.76 a day after touching $102.91 and closed at $103.76 +.01 – the day before it tradedj up to $104.99, highest since March 4. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.36), then the 50 day ($101.12), followed by the 200 day at $100.81. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is about even at $103.79 +.03 and like Gold with an INSIDE session.

Global equity markets slightly higher, India STRONG; Korea has barely budged for four days: UK +0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.1% vs – vs -1.1%! France +0.2% vs +0.8% vs +0.2% vs – vs -1.3%! Germany – vs +0.8% vs -0.5% vs – vs -1.7%! Japan –vs +3%!!! vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs -2.4%!!! Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.1% vs -1.6%! vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! Korea – vs – vs -0.2% vs – vs -0.6%; India +1.6%! vs -0.9% vs-0.6% vs closed vs -0.4%. U.S. equity futures slightly higher…are positions squared for Friday?…but look at the DOW: +8, at low -50! (range 60!?!); SPX +1.90 (8!); NDQ +10.50 (20). Yesterday they gapped up at open!?!

Spring is over and back to WINTER in Minnesota…4-8” of snow last night…and back to a Winter Wonderland…yeah, sure, ya betcha!

Have a fine day!

TB

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4/16/14…the morning after the night before (taxes)

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Of the twp basic certainties, death and taxes, death is preferable. At least you can’t be called in six months for an audit.” Bill Vaughn
Would have used that yesterday but didn’t want to stifle any of your creative thinking. TB

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Happiness is part of who we are. Joy is the feeling.” – Tony DeLiso
Yeah, I hear you but where is the joy? Wealth brings happiness and contentment. TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Bank of America Posts Quarterly Loss After Settling Mortgage-Bond Crisis – more to follow?
*Stocks Rise on Earnings as Oil Gains; Pound Strengthens on Falling Jobless – but BofA???
*U.K. Unemployment Drops to Five-Year Low as Rebound Spurs Rate Speculation
*Credit Suisse First-Quarter Profit Falls 34% as Investment Banking Slides – Rally???
*Mt. Gox Drops Revival Plan as Karpeles Cedes Control of Bitcoin Exchange – Buttcoin!
*Europe’s Periphery Emerges as Haven as Bonds Rise Amid Clashes in Ukraine
*Samsung Attacks Apple Smartphone Patent in $2 Billion Case as Not So Novel – hmmm!
*Long Bonds Vanish as 11% Benchmark Rates Proving Deterrent in Brazil
*Secret of Tokyo Bitcoin Miner’s Success Lies in Cheap Austrian Electricity – thought it was greed? Hey, Bitcoin buyers…want to buy my Tulip bulbs? Could jump in value!
*Korea Ferry Disaster Leaves 292 Missing Including Students as Three Killed – tragic 
*Ukraine Says Russia Exporting ‘Terrorism’ Amid Military Offensive in East – this we know!
*Billionaire Hedge Fund Leaders singer, Klarman, Join Ricketts’s Super-PAC – can they overcome Michael Lewis and stop the SEC and Justice Dept.? History says YES!!!

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Another kinda sorta rally…but what does it say when the leader is once again Dow Utilities +1.3% vs +0.6% and now up 11%!!! Ytd!!! Anyone who tells you they understand this market is either a damned fool or a liar…you choose. The Dow? Up just 0.6% and the S&P +0.7% while the two Nasdaq’s and the Russell 2000 were up just 0.4% (along with NYSE Financials). The other respectable showing was Dow Transports +0.9% – time to take a vacation…at least until next week! Total NYSE Volume roared back to an above average 3.72B shares from a weak 3.1B shares vs 3.73B (down day) vs 3.73B vs 3.3B vs 3.7B vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume also rose to a respectable 746M shares from a weak 692M shares from a strong 815M vs 771M vs 703M vs 836M vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M –leaving all those numbers there in hopes it will sink in.

NYSE Financials rose 0.4% vs +0.6% vs -1% vs -2.1%, with Brokers up 0.8% vs +0.8% vs -2% vs -2.8%!!! vs +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -3%!!! +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks +0.2% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%. BofA numero uno active: +1.9% vs +1.5% vs -2.2%! vs -2.9%!!! vs +1.1%. Closed $16.30 +.30 – back from the lowest since 12/31. Can it hold sweet sixteen? Citi also a most active for a second day, up 1% vs +4.4%.

Advance/Declines were mixed but nearly even – no confirmation of a rally even thinking about happening but ahead of options expiry, who knows? …the NYSE was +1.6x vs +1.9x vs -2.5x vs -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x, Nasdaq -1.1x vs +1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! vs +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! Breadth was sort of positive” NYSE +1.7x vs +2.9x vs -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! vs +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.3x vs -5x! vs -14.5%!!! vs +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Still weak! Nasdaq Advance/Declines were -1.1:1! vs +1.1:1! vs +4.6:1 vs 4.3:1! vs -7.8:1!!! vs +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by +1.5:1 vs +4.6:1 vs –44:1! vs -100:1!!! vs +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! Note the New 52 Week Highs were steady at a still-weak 88 vs 89 vs 42 vs 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows surged to 198!!! vs 135 from a high 151! vs 91 vs 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined for a second day to 15.61 -.50…still high and the range was high again 15.47-17.50 compare to Monday’s 16.10-17.40!!! Beware of options expiry!!! Friday’s range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14! The low of 12.60 just 8 days ago was lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: closed modestly higher and haven’t been down in four sessions now – just 9 days after the 10’s replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80% BUT, like a bad golfer, no follow-through! (Close: 10 yr 2.20% -1/16; 30 yr 3.49% –; TIP 1.19% +1/16). WEAKER overnight and giving back much of the gains: 10’s 2.64% -1/8; 30’s 3.48% -3/8; TIP 1.20% -1/2 Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.228% 3 mos.; 0.321%! 6 mos., both just above their record lows which were in the last month. The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields rallied late yesterday and are mixed o/n and little changed ex-Portugal which is sharply lower: Germany 1.49% +2; UK 2.64% +4, – recent high 3.03%! France 1.96% +1; Italy 3.10% -1; Spain 3.07% -2; Portugal 3.74% -10! Greece 6.01% -3 vs 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% +1.

Gold closed weak and traded down to $1284.40 (creating a double bottom from 4/4!) after trading to $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 just three days ago. It barely made it back to $1300 and closed at $1300.30 -$27.20!!! Ten days ago it traded down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Now right on the 200 day and the psych support level but below the 50 and 40 day. 3/4 was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $69 in 22 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support at the 200 day $1300 and res at the 50 day, $1317, then the 40 day, $1326. Major support at $1284.40 the double bottom from 4/4. Overnight little change: $1303.10 +$2.80 with a session low of $1293.50…hmmm.

Crude declined to $102.91 before coming back to close at $103.75 -.30 – just two days ago it traded to $104.55 highest since March 4. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.38), then the 50 day ($101.14), followed by the 200 day at $100.82. The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher at $104.79 +$1.04 with a session high of $104.99.

Global equity markets modestly higher led by a BIG rally in Japan; India weak: UK +0.3% vs -0.1% vs – vs -1.1%! vs +0.3%; France +0.8% vs +0.2% vs – vs -1.3%! vs +0.1%; Germany +0.8% vs -0.5% vs – vs -1.7%! vs +0.3%; Japan +3%!!! vs +0.6% vs -0.4% vs -2.4%!!! vs – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! Hang Seng +0.1% vs -1.6%! vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! Korea – vs -0.2% vs – vs -0.6% vs +0.5%; India -0.9% vs-0.6% vs closed vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +1.6%. U.S. equity futures higher in another narrow range: DOW +73 (range 70); SPX +9.20! (9!); NDQ +20.25 (17!!!). How can gains be higher than range? Gap up at open.

Spring is again ‘iffy’ in Minnesota…supposed to be snow and rain today and possibly four days!

Have a fine day!

TB

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4/15/14…another day of infamy thanks to carried interest!!!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Golf is a lot like business. You drive hard to get in the green, and then wind up in the hole.” – unattributed

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “All money is a matter of belief.” – Adam Smith …and he never once uttered the word ‘capitalism’ it did not exist…tell that to conservatives who frequently confuse the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution. TB

A question: who are the only two signers of the Declaration of Independence that went on to become president? Asked on This Week, Sunday…only one panelist got it right! Answer at end.

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast on Food, Rents: +0.2%; Core +0.2%
*Banks’ Loans to Each Other Held at 15% of Capital in Proposed Basel Rule
*Emerging Markets Stocks Decline With Commodities on China as S&P Futures Advance – a tad!
*Yellen Says Higher Capital rules May Be Required for Biggest U.S. Banks – you rock, Janet!!!
*Deeper China Slowdown Seen as Analysts Gain Extra Tool for Gauging Economy
*Russia’s Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Decline for a 4th Straight Month – they’re spending…
*Russia Said to Abandon budget Discipline to Fund Crimea After Annexation – forced to!
*Johnson & Johnson Lifts Full-Year Forecast as Profit Climbs on Drug Demand – junkies! LOL!
*Google Acquires Drone Maker Titan Aerospace to Help Spread Data Services – to your door!
*Buenos Aires Faces 650% Gas Price Jump as TGS Bonds Gain
*Here’s a Handy Guide to Exercising Your Right to Pay Taxes – like right to ‘buy’ candidates?
*Kidnappings of CEOs in Brazil Stoke Efforts to keep Executive Pay Secret – coming here soon?
*Ukraine Starts Anti-Separatist Push as Medvedev Evokes Risk of Civil War – jerks!
*Snowstorm From U.S. Midwest Heading Toward Northeast With Much Colder Air – it’s Spring! 
*Berlusconi’s Prison Sentence Is Reduced to Community Service With Elderly – scandalous!!!
*Hear Drug Cost $900 Million More as generic Held back by Law Gap – makes me ill!!!

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the March Retail Sales (Monday) and March CPI (Tuesday). We will also get February Business Inventories (Monday), April Empire State Manufacturing (Tuesday), March Housing Starts, March Industrial Production and Beige Book (Wednesday), and April Philadelphia Fed Survey (Thursday). Courtesy of Economic Data Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

The high-freaks hi-jinks was in full force yesterday as they ran it up out of the chute, the it jerkily rose to the session high on the fifth attempt, then a huge swoon down to the prior days close and just 1 point above its low…it was an inside session lower high, higher low – in a word: meaningless! More weirdness: the DOW did similar with the low still 29 points above Friday’s close and 14 points above the low??? So the Dow was up 0.9% exactly negating Friday’s 0.9% loss while the broader S&P was +0.8% vs -1%. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Transports were both up +0.6%, the 100 +0.8% and the Russel 2000 (small cap) was up just 0.4% vs DOWN 1.4%!!! Hardly a rally (sic) to be proud of…especially with options expiry this Friday! Dow Utilities however rebounded 0.6% after being down just 0.1% on Friday and are now up a whopping 9.6% ytd and 1.1% for the month!!! All others are deep in the red in BOTH categories!!! Tell you anything? It sure does to TB!!! Total NYSE Volume plunged (per usual on an up day) to a weak 3.1B shares from a strong 3.73B (down day) vs 3.73B vs 3.3B vs 3.7B vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume also plunged to a weak 692M shares from a strong 815M vs 771M vs 703M vs 836M vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M –leaving all those numbers there in hopes it will sink in.

NYSE Financials rose 0.7% but from down 1% vs -2.1%, with Brokers up 0.8% vs -2% vs -2.8%!!! vs +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks +0.7% vs -1.1% vs -3%!!! +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks +0.3% vs -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%. HEED!!! Look at the most actives! BofA numero uno: +1.5% vs -2.2%! vs -2.9%!!! vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%! Closed $16.00 +.23 (high $16.22) – back from the lowest since 12/31. Can it hold sweet sixteen? Look who else was in: Citi UP 4.4% but JPM off another 0.6% – maybe Jamie will get an even bigger bonus – sukkahs!

Repeating from Monday:

CAUTION!!! Money managers have benefitted by those great multi-year returns which as TB has pointed out have been long term returns. Remember that figures lie and liars figure. Look at the returns on the S&P 500 for 3 and 5 years…then add one quarter since the bottom was in March 2009…and they will continue to shrink from here. 3 year got a boost to 21.8% from the prior plunge to just 14.6% (dividends reinvested), BUT look at five years +21.1% from +47.4%!!! Also, remember that there is not much of a ‘kicker’ from reinvestment in the index over having just put the money in treasury bills (averaging 6.6%, although effectively zero now). Just 0.67% less yield than reinvesting over the last five years and just 0.55% for the last three! That is a sign of extreme volatility as it is normally way more than 1%!

Advance/Declines were positive again but dwarfed by Friday’s plunge …the NYSE was +1.9x vs -2.5x vs -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x, Nasdaq +1.1x vs -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! vs +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! Breadth was similar NYSE +2.9x vs -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! vs +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x; Nasdaq +1.3x? vs -5x! vs -14.5%!!! vs +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Still looks like a trend to TB! Nasdaq Advancers bested but…by just 1.1:1!?! vs +4.6:1 vs 4.3:1! vs -7.8:1!!! vs +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by +4.6:1 vs –44:1! vs -100:1!!! vs +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! Note the Dow was +9:1 while the S&P was +8.6:1 – hmmm SPX is the big index right…and thus trading is populated by high-freaks! New 52 Week Highs doubled but to a still-weak 89 from a WEAK 42 vs 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows slipped to 135 from a high 151! vs 91 vs 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) finally declined to 16.11 -.92…still high and the range was 16.10-17.40!!! Beware of options expiry!!! Friday’s range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14! The low of 12.60 just 7 days ago was lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: were little changed following two days of rally – 8 days after the 10’s replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80% BUT, like a bad golfer, no follow-through! (Latest: 10 yr 2.20% -1/16; 30 yr 3.49% –; TIP 1.19% +1/16. Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos.; 0.321%! 6 mos. The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Just out: lending at 17-year low!!! But Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower ex-Greece which took back 15bp’s of yesterday’s loss…risky! Germany 1.52% -1; UK 2.66% +2, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.00% -2; Italy 3.13% -4; Spain 3.11% -2; Portugal 3.83% -6; Greece 6.09% -15 vs 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range is 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% –.

Gold closed up but failed to reach Thursday’s high of $1324.90 – highest since 3/24. It closed at $1327.50 +$8.80. This, nine days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 and 50 day and slightly above the 40 day. 3/4 was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $42 in 21 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support at the 40 day $1326 then the 50 day, $1317, then the 200 day, $1300 – both tech and psych support! Overnight they threw in the towel: $1292.50 -$35.00!!! with a session low of $1284.40!!! That is tied with April 4’s low and totally negates the rally…again!!!

Crude surged to $104.55 – 11 cents above Friday and highest since March 4. It closed at $104.05 +.31. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.33), then the 50 day ($100.78). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker at $103.05 – $1.00 with a session low of $102.91! …a four day low!

Global equity markets mixed – Japan and Hong Kong volatile: UK -0.1% – vs -1.1%! vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8%; France +0.2% vs – vs -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7%; Germany -0.5% vs – vs -1.7%! vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! Japan +0.6% vs -0.4% vs -2.4%!!! vs – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! Hang Seng -1.6%! vs +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! Korea -0.2% vs – vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.3%; India -0.6% vs closed vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +1.6%. U.S. equity futures somewhat higher in another narrow range: DOW +27 (range 42); SPX +3.40 (8!); NDQ +8.75 (19!!!).

Answer to the question: who are the only two signers of the Declaration of Independence that went on to become president? Asked on This Week, Sunday…only one panelist got it right! George Washington and James Madison…did you pick Jefferson and Adams? TB did!

Spring is still in Minnesota…but 30 overnight and didn’t get up to 50 yesterday…sunny though!

Have a stupendous day!

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4/14/14…can you trust those reported returns? …sometimes

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Golf is a lot like business. You drive hard to get in the green, and then wind up in the hole.” – unattributed

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.”
– Martin Luther King Jr. …and the U.S. today there is plenty of self-induced injustice. TB

Bloomberg Top Stories:
U.S. Retail Sales in March +1.1%; Ex-Autos +1%; Median Est. +0.9%; Biggest since 9/12; excluding gas stations +1.4% – most since 2010; Autos +3.1% also highest since 9/12. Retail Sales in Feb. revised to +0.7% vs +0.3% – bonds slipping on news! Long end of ¼.
*Citigroup Quarterly Profit Unexpectedly Rises on Release of Loss Reserves – see, more optimistic of course, loan losses have declined! Wonder if they laundered more money, too?
*Stocks Drop With Ruble as Commodities Rise on Ukraine Tension; Gas Climbs – earlier…now:
*Stocks in U.S. GAIN on Citigroup Earnings, Retail Sales as Treasuries Rise – but slipping
*Trillion-Dollar Firms Denominating Bond Market Trigger U.S. Investigations
*Technology Bears Miss Biggest Drop Since 2011 After Covering Short Sales – too soon!
*TIAA-CREF Agrees to Acquire Nuveen for $6.25 Billion, Adding Mutual Funds – oy vey!
*GM Records Show Co-Workers Stymied In-House Sleuth Probing Ignition Switch – Switchgate?
*Obama’s Shrinking Deficits Silence Foreign Critics as Tax Revenues Mount
*Lending Drops to 17-Year Low in U.S. as Rates Curb Mortgages – Fed paying +0.25%!
*Pound Bets Most Bullish in Three Years With U.K. Housing Boom Accelerating
*Hedge Funds Boosting Bullish Crude Wagers as OPEC Output Contracts – hey it’s just OPM!
*Pimco Loses to Goldman in Hot New Bond Strategy as Gross Fund Trails Peers – awwww!
*Where Are the Technology Short-Sellers When You Need Them – doing high-freak trading!
*World-Leading $25 Hourly Wage Floor Pits Swiss Business Against Coal Union
*European Union Weights Tougher Russian Sanctions as Ukraine Tension Mounts – and U.S.???
*Republican Odds of U.S. Senate Takeover Rise as Democratic Turnout Shrinks
*Twitter’s Crowell Heads to Turkey for Negotiations Amid Erdogan Ban Threat
*Beijing Jumps Into Top 10 in A.T. Kearney’s Global Appeal Rankings – too hell with smog!
*The Dangers of a Worldwide Drift in Economic Policy – Mohamed A. El-Erian…heed! Smart man!

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the March Retail Sales (Monday) and March CPI (Tuesday). We will also get February Business Inventories (Monday), April Empire State Manufacturing (Tuesday), March Housing Starts, March Industrial Production and Beige Book (Wednesday), and April Philadelphia Fed Survey (Thursday). Courtesy of Economic Data Service

Friday’s Market Summary:

Friday was…in a word…a disaster – wait…didn’t TB say that about Thursday? Uh, yeah! Now we can look forward to THIS Friday’s options expiry. For a second day the market struggled throughout the session and went out just off the lows – the dawning of a new bear market? Total NYSE Volume was steady at a solid 3.73B shares vs 3.73B vs 3.3B vs 3.7B vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume (if there is a such thing anymore!), rose again to a high 815M shares vs 771M vs 703M vs 836M vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M. All indices were down by at least 0.9% with the Russell 2000 the goat, off 1.4% followed closely by the two Nasdaqs (-1.3%,-1.2%), then the S&P 500 -1% and both the Dow and Dow Transports -0.9%. Best of show was again Dow Utilities -0.1% vs -0.5% and are now up 9% ytd! +0.5% this ugly month which has seen all the indices down by 1.75% (Dow) or more. Banks are the worst for the month: KBW -4.7% and Nasdaq Banks -4.1% – didn’t TB warn you of that? They will be even worse today as JPM earnings plunged 19% – worse than anyone expected – in pre-market trading it is $55.77-55.80 – $1.40 or 2.4% following yesterday’s 1.2% drop…Jamie???
Of the major indices yesterday the worst were the two Nasdaqs, -3.1% and -2.9% respectively; the Russell 2000 -2.6%; S&P -2.1%; Transports -2.1% and the Dow -1.6%. NYSE Financials -1% vs -2.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5% with Brokers -2% vs -2.8%!!! vs +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks -1.1% vs -3%!!! +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks -0.7% vs -2.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%.
BofA most active: -2.2%! vs -2.9%!!! vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%! Closed $15.77 -.35! Session low was $15.62 – lowest since 12/31/13!!!

Here are the latest returns – not pretty except Dow Utilities!!!

As of 4/11/14 MTD YTD
Dow -2.6% -3.3%
Transports -3.8% 0.2%
Dow Utilities 0.4% 8.9%
S&P 500 -3.0% -4.2%
NDQ Comp -4.8% -4.2%
NDQ 100 -4.1% -4.0%
Russell 2000 -5.3% -4.5%
NYSE Fin -3.4% -3.1%
KBW Banks -5.8% -1.7%
Nasdaq Bks -4.7% -2.3%

CAUTION!!! Money managers have benefitted by those great multi-year returns which as TB has pointed out have been long term returns. Remember that figures lie and liars figure. Look at the returns on the S&P 500 for 3 and 5 years…then add one quarter since the bottom was in March 2009…and they will continue to shrink from here. 3 year got a boost to 21.8% from the prior plunge to just 14.6% (dividends reinvested), BUT look at five years +21.1% from +47.4%!!! Also, remember that there is not much of a ‘kicker’ from reinvestment in the index over having just put the money in treasury bills (averaging 6.6%). Just 67 basis points for five years and just 55bp’s for three years! That is a sign of extreme volatility as it is normally way more than 1%!

Advance/Declines were very negative again …the NYSE was -2.5x vs -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x vs -1.5x, Nasdaq -3.8x! vs -6.3x!!! vs +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! vs -2.3x. Breadth was extremely negative – again! NYSE -4.2x! vs -7.4x!!! vs +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq -5x! vs -14.5%!!! vs +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Looks like a trend to TB – indeed! Nasdaq declining issues beat Advancers for a second day by 4.3:1! vs -7.8:1!!! vs +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by –44:1! vs -100:1!!! vs +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! New 52 Week Highs were more than halved to a WEAK 42 vs 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows jumped to a high 151! vs 91 vs 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) surged 7% following a 15% increase from the lowest in five sessions closing at 17.03 +1.14!! The range was 15.89-17.85! – highest since 3/14!…options anyone? On Wedneday TB said; the decline “could be a set-up for a week from Friday’s options expiry.” Prophetic? The low of 12.60 just six days ago was lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: rallied sharply for a second day while the curve continued the ‘bull flattener’ (10’s +3/16 vs +3/8; 30’s +11/16 vs +1 pt; Long TIP +1 pt vs +1-5/16 – seven days after the 10’s replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80% BUT, like a bad golfer, no follow-through! (Latest: 10 yr 2.18% -1/8; 30 yr 3.48% –; TIP 1.19% — long end holding! Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.229% 3 mos.; 0.323% 6 mos. The Fed is driving this by continuing to pay 0.25% on their excess reserves – why lend??? Just out: lending at 17-year low!!! But Fed has no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is glued to 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields little changed while Greece continues to loose ground since the auction – now up 47bp’s from the NEW post-crisis low – set THURSDAY! In a word – sukkahs!!! Look at the PIGS – do you think they shorted them against Greece then reversed after the auction??? DUH!!! Germany 1.52% +2; UK 2.63% +2, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.00% –; Italy 3.17% -4; Spain 3.13% -5; Portugal 3.89% -5; Greece 6.29%!!! vs 6.15%!!! vs 5.77%!!!. Range now 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% –.

Gold had an ‘inside’ session one day after posting a high of $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 – and closed at $1318.70 -$1.40. Just 8 days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 and 50 day with the 40 day in striking distance. Still could do it! Perhaps today? 3/4 was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $51 in 20 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support below at the 50 day $1315 then the 200 day, $1298, and first res just above at the 40 day, $1326. Overnight $1325.30 +$6.30 AND a new high of $1330.80 highest since 3/24.

Crude tried to break out and put in a new high of $104.44 along the way, highest since March 4. It closed at $103.74 +.34. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.22), then the 50/200 day ($100.71 – locked!). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly weaker at $103.51 -.23 in an ‘inside’ session.

European equity markets ALL even??? Asia mixed: UK – vs -1.1%! vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8%; France – vs -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7%; Germany – vs -1.7%! vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! Japan -0.4% vs -2.4%!!! vs – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! Hang Seng +0.2% vs -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! Korea – vs -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2%; India closed vs -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +1.6% vs closed. U.S. equity futures higher in another narrow range: DOW +62 (range 42); SPX +9.60 (18); NDQ +23 (37). Stock market opening higher too: Dow +82; Trans +77; S&P +12; Comp +32; 100 +25; R2k +7

Spring is still in Minnesota…not so nice over weekend but sunny again today! But 31 degrees 

Have a great week!

TB

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4/11/14…poor (rich) Jamie Dimon…beaten by a (Wells Fargo) stagecoach!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “You give the people what they want, they’ll turn out.” – A rival producer, observing the crowd at Louis B. Mayer’s funeral.

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “When humor goes, there goes civilization.” – Erma Bombeck

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*JPMorgan Profit Falls Greater-Than-Estimated 19% on Lower Trading Volume!!!
*Wells Fargo Posts 14% Profit Increase as Fewer Customers Default on Loans – a real bank!
*Wholesales Prices in U.S. Rise More Than Forecast on Services
*Stocks Fall Amid Tech Rout as S&P 500 Futures Decline on JPM Earnings – told ya!
*BMW Will Recall 489,000 Cars Worldwide Due to Possible Engine-Bolt Defect – even them!
*Pimco Spots Value in Russia After Crimea Selloff while Giving Up on Turkey – traitors!!!
*Citigroup Mexico Employee Said to Take Records Tied to Loan Fraud at Unit – hmmm will
they give him a bonus for that…like they did to the guy who joined the Obama administration?
*U.S. as Global Growth Engine Moving at Putt-Putt Speed Instead of Purring – or worse!
*Stocks Don’t Always Go Up and Some Other Reassuring Thoughts – sorry to tell you that!
*Golf Course Owners Recover From Toughest Slump in U.S. as Players Return
*Sebelius Resignation as U.S. Health Chief May Give More Room on Obamacare – ?
*Ukraine Premier Yatsenyuk Bids to Calm East After U.S. Sanctions Warning
*Testosterone Drugs Are Put Under Review by EU Regulator Over Heart Risks
*Ukrainian Miners Don Camouflage Gear as Uprising in Donetsk (Don’t Ask?) Mimics Maidan
*The Stock Market’s Plunge Is Waiting for Your Fantasies: Barry Ritholtz

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Yesterday was…in a word…a disaster! The market struggled all day and went out just off the lows. True to form, Total NYSE Volume rebounded to a solid 3.73B shares from a low 3.3B shares vs 3.7B vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume (if there is a such thing anymore!), also rose sharply to 771M shares from a weak 703M vs 836M (highest in a week) vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M. All indices were down by more than 1.5% except the ‘best of the year’ Dow Utilities which were off just 0.5% and are now up 9% ytd! +0.5% this ugly month which has seen all the indices down by 1.75% (Dow) or more. Banks are the worst for the month: KBW -4.7% and Nasdaq Banks -4.1% – didn’t TB warn you of that? They will be even worse today as JPM earnings plunged 19% – worse than anyone expected – in pre-market trading it is $55.77-55.80 – $1.40 or 2.4% following yesterday’s 1.2% drop…Jamie???
Of the major indices yesterday the worst were the two Nasdaqs, -3.1% and -2.9% respectively; the Russell 2000 -2.6%; S&P -2.1%; Transports -2.1% and the Dow -1.6%. NYSE Financials plunged 2.1% vs +1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5% with Brokers -2.8%!!! vs +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks -3%!!! +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks -2.5%!!! vs -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%.
BofA most active: -2.9%!!! vs +1.1% vs +0.3% vs vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%! Closed $16.14 -.46! Lowest since Jan. 27th!

Advance/Declines were very negative…the NYSE was -3.4x! vs +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x vs -1.5x, Nasdaq -6.3x!!! vs +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! vs -2.3x. Breadth was extremely negative: NYSE -7.4x!!! vs +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq -14.5% – ouch!!! vs +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Looks like a trend to TB! Declining issues beat Advancers reversing two days of gains by -7.8:1!!! vs +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by -100:1!!! vs +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! New 52 Week Highs dropped sharply to 97 vs 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows way more than doubled to 91 vs 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) surged by 15%!!! from the lowest in four sessions closing at 15.89 +2.07!!! The range was 13.81-16.38 – highest since 3/17!…tell it goodbye! Yesterday TB said; the decline “could be a set-up for a week from Friday’s options expiry.” Prophetic? The low of 12.60 just five days ago – was lowest since Jan. 22!

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: lost rallied sharply yesterday while the curve put on a ‘bull flattener’ (10’s +3/8; 30’s +1 pt; Long TIP +1-5/16 – six days after the 10’s took replaced the 3/3 high of 2.79% with a 2.80% BUT, like a bad golfer, no follow-through! (Latest: 10 yr 2.62% +1/4; 30 yr 3.47%+7/8; TIP 1.18% +1-1/8! Recent highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.226% 3 mos.; 0.322% 6 mos. for yet another new low as the Fed continues to pay 0.25% – they have no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! both steady at their new record low! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is glued to 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower ex-Greece – is up 32bp’s from the NEW post-crisis low – duh! The bond auction is past – sukkahs!!! Germany 1.50% -2; UK 2.60% -2, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.00% -1; Italy 3.21% +5; Spain 3.20% +4; Portugal 3.91% +6; Greece 6.15%!!! up from 5.77%!!!. Range now 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% –.

Gold had a STRONG session with a high of $1324.90 – highest since 3/24 – and closed at $1320.50 +$13.60. Just 7 days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 and 50 day with the 40 day in striking distance. Perhaps today? Last Friday was the 1st close above the 200 day and $1300 in eight sessions! – now off $52 in 19 sessions following the reversal on 3/17 after printing new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support below at the 50 day $1313 then the 200 day, $1299, and first res just above at the 40 day, $1326. Overnight an ‘inside day’ and currently $1321.10 +.60.

Crude did nothing after surging for two days to $103.77, highest since March 4. It closed at $103.40 -.20. On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. Can it hold here? Last Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($101.13), then the 200 day ($100.67), and finally the 50 day ($100.60). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly weaker at $103.13 -.27.

European equity markets and Japan SLAMMED!!! Rest of Asia weaker: UK -1.1%! vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.8%; France -1.3%! vs +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.8%; Germany -1.7%! vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! Japan -2.4%!!! vs – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! Hang Seng -0.8% vs +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! vs -0.6%; Korea -0.6% vs +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.1%; India -0.4% vs +0.1% vs +1.6% vs closed vs -0.1%. U.S. equity futures following suit: DOW -80 (range 133); SPX -8.70 (17); NDQ -24.25 (38).

Spring in Minnesota…for a fifth day…the god’s must be crazy!

Have a terrific weekend!

TB

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4/10/14…ah, the joys of Spring…when it comes!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Friday afternoon I’m walking home from school and I’m watching some men build a house. And the guy hammering on the roof calls me a paranoid little weirdo. In Morse code. – Emo Phillips

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Our character is what we do when we think no one is looking.” –
H. Jackson Brown, Jr. …does he mean a character? Like Snoopy??? Kermit???

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*First-Time Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Lowest Level Since May 2007 – for the WEEK!
*Bonds Rally as U.S. Interest Rate Increase Concern Fades; Yen Strengthens
*EBay Ends Proxy Fight With Icahn, Agreeing to Add an Independent Director – the point is?
*High-Frequency Trading Still Enigma for SEC After Four Years as Priority – a priority?
*Greece Bond Sale Tops $4 Billion in Market Return After Four-Year Hiatus – SELLt!!!
*U.K. Scraps Right to RBS Dividend as Lender Moves to Shareholder Payouts
*GM Puts Two Engineers on Paid Leave Amid Probe of Faulty Ignition Switches
*Breaking Up Not So Hard to Do at Companies From Baxter to Hertz – a trend…
*Rebounding Euro Leaves Debt Crisis Behind Though Flaws Exposed – ya think???
*Trailer Parks Lure Wall Street Investors Looking for Double-Wide Returns
*Gross Picks Up Pieces at Pimco After ‘ Near-Death Blow’ of El-Erian’s Exit – awww poor Bill
*Australian Search Plane Detects Possible Signal in Indian Ocean MH370 Hunt
*Argentina’s Biggest Unions Shut Down Transport to Protest Inflation, Crime
*France’s Finance Chief Takes Measure of Slower Deficit Cuts to Washington
*Group Urging 2016 Clinton Presidency Bid Raises $1.7 Million in Early 2014
*Medicare Has Become a Liability for Democrats Thanks to Obama

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

Yesterday was an up day? Question: was volume high or low? This is getting too easy…LOW!!! Not only that but boring! Total NYSE Volume dropped back to a low 3.3B shares vs a well above average 3.7B shares vs 3.77B vs 3.6B vs 3.03B shares. REAL NYSE Volume (if there is a such thing!), also dropped to a weak 703M shares from a well above average 836M shares (highest in a week) vs 781M vs 661M vs 653M vs 724M (12 mo. ave!) vs 847M vs 639M. All indices were up led by the laggard Nasdaqs up 1.7% vs +0.8% and up 1.8% vs+0.9%. Next came Transports +1.6% vs flat, with the Dow and S&P each up 1.1% vs only +0.1% and +0.4%! Dow Utilities the winner for the month and year to day were off just 0.2% vs +1.7% – i[ 9.5% ytd!!! NYSE Financials were up 1.4% vs +0.2% vs -1.5% with Brokers +1.4% vs +0.6% vs -2.1%; KBW Banks +0.5% vs flat vs -1.6%; Nasdaq Banks -0.1% vs +0.1% vs -0.7%.
BofA most active: +1.1% vs +0.3% vs vs -1.9%! vs -2.5%!

Advance/Declines were positive…the NYSE was +2.7% vs +2.1x vs -2.1x vs -1.9x vs -1.5x, Nasdaq +2.9% vs +1.9x vs -3.2x vs -4.9x! vs -2.3x. Breadth: NYSE +2.7% vs +2.2x vs -4.4x!!! vs -1.9x vs -1.5x; Nasdaq +6.3%! vs +2.2x vs -3.1x vs -7.3x!!! Would have been impressive if the volume had risen! Advancers bested decliners for a second day but by +3:1 vs +2.1 vs -3.4:1 vs -6:1 on the Composite and by +7.4:1! vs +3:1 vs -4:1 vs -97:4 on the 100!!! Again, had volume been even average it would have been impressive but not with a WEAK NDQ 100!
New 52 Week Highs more than doubled to 138 vs 60 vs 56 vs 268 vs 273 vs 327 vs 306 vs 226 vs 110, while New Lows dropped back to 37vs 56 vs 107 vs 71 vs 31 vs 18 – within 2 of their cycle low . Lastly, Volatility (VIX) declined sharply to the lowest in four sessions although it remains elevated. The high Tuesday was 16.20 after climbing three straight sessions – highest since 3/24, and closed at 13.82 -1.07 and back below all three moving averages – could be a set-up for a week from Friday’s options expiry The low of 12.60 just four days ago – was lowest since Jan. 22! Yellow flags remain waving.

Overnight Comments:

Bonds: lost slightly yesterday and are up coming back a bit overnight. Five days after the 10’s took out the 3/3 high of 2.79%! (10’s 2.69% vs 2.68%, 3/3 high 2.80%; 30’s 3.57% vs 3.54% from 3.73%). Latest: 10 yr 2.68% +1/16; 30 yr 3.57% +1/8; TIP 1.27% +3/16. Recent ranges: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP recent high was 1.64% The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13. Libor update: 0.227% 3 mos. at record low, 0.324% 6 mos. for yet another new low as the Fed continues to pay 0.25% – they have no choice in financing the securities they bought in the QE’s! both steady at their new record low! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.08% since 5/22/13 and is steady at 0.07% -0.09%. Foreign bond yields lower ex-Greece – which set a NEW post-crisis low yesterday!!! Germany 1.54% -3; UK 2.65% -4, – recent high 3.03%! France 2.04% -4; Italy 3.15% -5; Spain 3.15% -5; Portugal 3.85% -3; Greece 5.82% +5 – but closed yesterday at 5.77%!!!. Range now 5.77% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.60% -1.

Gold had an ‘inside’ session and closed at $1305.50 -$3.20 a day after hitting $1314.70, highest since 3/26. Just six days after trading down to $1277.40, lowest since 2/10. Back above the 200 day but still below the 40/50. It has been in trouble since imploding three weeks ago, breaking all supports. Last Friday was the 1st close above $1300 in eight sessions! – still off $66 in 18 sessions following the reversal! On 3/17 it printed a new recent high of $1392.60, highest high since 9/4/13 – that ended in an outside day and nearly a negative key reversal and has been down every day since! It had closed above the psychological $1300 every day since 2/12! Friday was the first close above the 200 day since 2/14, and is again first support. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Psych level: $1300 sup, with technical support below at the 200 day, $1297, and first res just above at the 50 day, $1312, then the 40 day, $1325. Overnight strong with another rally to $1324.90, highest since 3/24 and currently $1318.50 +$12.70.

Crude surged for a second day to $103.77, highest since 3/4 before closing at $103.37 +.81! On April Fool’s Day it finally broke above the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s, trading up to $102.24. Can it hold here? Last Wednesday’s session low was $98.86, lowest since 3/25! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. First SUPPORT is the 40 day ($100.96), then the 200 day ($100.59), and finally the 50 day ($100.36). The recent range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it traded up to $102.84 and it is slightly weaker at $103.32 -.27.

Global equity markets mixed with Hong Kong strong for a THIRD day; Japan remains weak: UK +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.8% vs +0.4%; France +0.1% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs -0.8% vs +0.3%; Germany +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.7% vs -1.5%!!! vs +0.4%; Japan – vs -2.1%!!! vs -1.4%! vs -1.7%! vs -0.1%; Hang Seng +1.5%!! vs +1.1%! vs +1%! vs -0.6% vs -0.2%; Korea +0.5% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs +0.1% vs -0.3%; India +0.1% vs +1.6% vs closed vs -0.1% vs -0.7%. U.S. equity futures little changed in the usual narrow range: DOW -6 (range 55); SPX -0.10 (10); NDQ +0.25 (25).

Spring in Minnesota…for a fourth day…it’s baseball season, ya know?

Have a great day!

TB

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