7/30/14…we didn’t start the fire…

Special Quote of the Day: “Many could forego heavy meals, a full wardrobe, a fine house, et cetera; it is the ego they cannot forego.” – Mohandas Gandhi…ah yes, but their egos won’t let them forego anything…even when others are suffering. – TB

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I went to the bank the other day and reviewed my savings. I found out I have all the money I’ll ever need. If I die tomorrow.”
– Henny Youngman

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Excellence is not a skill. It is an attitude.” – Ralph Marston

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Bankers Bonuses at Risk for Seven Years Under BOE Rules to Prevent Losses…but U.S.?
*U.S. Futures Gain With Treasuries Before Fed; Russian Stocks, Ruble Rally – weak sanctions!
*Barclays Returns to Second-Quarter Profit on Cost Cuts, Lower Impairments
*Argentine Default Deadline Looms With Hedge Fund Talks Set to Resume today
*Billionaire Steven Cohen Still Beating Hedge Funds After Shutting Down SAC – no shame!
*Greek Government Credit-Default Swaps Trade for First Time Since 2012 – get ‘em here!
*Bitcoin Faces Test at Highest EU Court – aka: TULIPS…tulipmania
*Hong Kong, Singapore Popping Housing Bubbles New York, London Can’t Handle
*Russian Central Bank Pledges Assistance to Lenders Sanctioned by U.S., EU – Putin, you rock!
*UN Shelter in Gaza Shelled With Loss of 20 People as Assault Intensifies
*Europeans Paying Million in Ransom Help Bankroll Al-Qaeda Terror Network
*Buffetts Take on Ricketts in Nebraska Contest Drawing Billionaire Backers

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Not a pretty picture. All indices were down from 0.2-0.4% except Dow Transports -1.4%!; Dow Utilities +0.9%?; and the Russell 2000 which rose 0.2%? NYSE Financials were off 0.5%. So what was so bad? Monday’s mixed session where Dow Transports fell 1.1%! while Dow Utilities rose 1.3%!!!;and the Russell 2000 declined 0.5%.Since the July 18th rally where all indices except the Dow (+07%) were up from 1% to 1.6% (both Nasdaq’s and the Russell 2000), there have been two up sessions, two down and two mixed…not exactly compelling evidence of a bull market…in fact the modest gains since 7/10 have been neutralized – this as we remain near record highs (except the Russell which peaked on 7/1 and has plunged 6% since! has . Volume rose to 3.18B shares but remains below average…and weak on actual NYSE floor trades. A/D’s and Breadth were mixed with NYSE negative for a third session and Nasdaq positive but only slightly; new 52 week highs rose to 181 vs 152 while new lows slipped back to 118 from 141. The VIX rose sharply closing at 13.32 first close above ‘13’ since 7/17…hmmm.

Total NYSE Volume rose but remains below average at 3.14B shares vs 2.77B vs 2.63B vs 3.09B vs 2.05B. Recent high volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume rose slightly again but just to 628M shares vs 589M vs 570M vs 631M vs 581m – six days after plunging to 541M, the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th . There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 703M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 666M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were mixed with NYSE negative: NYSE -1.5x vs -1.3x vs -1.9x vs -1.1x vs +1.4x; Nasdaq +1.03x vs -1.7x vs -2.1x vs -1.2x vs 1:1x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.8x vs -1.4x vs -2x vs +1.2x vs +1.07x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs -1.5x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.2x. New 52 Week Highs rose to 181? vs 152 vs 150 vs 280 vs 284 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows slipped back to 118 vs 141 vs 55 vs 70 vs 49 – recent range is 24-214. S&P VIX closed at 13.32 +.76 with a range of 12.12-13.35…Monday’s high was 13.64. Observe!

Bonds closed higher, again setting new 12-month highs: 10 yr closed at 2.46% +1/4. 30 yr closed 3.23% +9/16. The long TIP closed at 0.87% +11/16. Overnight slightly weaker: 10’s 2.47% -1/8; 30’s 3.24% -1/4; and long TIP 0.88% -5/16. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.236% 3 mos.; 0.329% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields little changed: Germany 1.12% –; UK 2.55% –; France 1.50% –; Italy 2.63% -1; Spain 2.45% -2; Portugal 3.52% -4; Greece 5.79% +2. The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.52% +1.
Gold traded down to $1298 before closing at $1300.50 -$5.30 but the important thing is that while trading in a narrow range it suffered a negative key reversal (higher high, lower low and close below prior days low!) Sitting on psychological support level of $1300! 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Just 3 closes below $1300 in 25 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! Once again it is back below all three moving averages which remain near locked and CRITICAL…40 day $1299, the 50 day $1294 with final support still at the 200 day $1287!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1300.10 -0.40 in another inside trading session.

Crude closed weaker yet again at $100.97 -.70 with a session low of $100.37 – lowest since 7/16! Last Tuesday’s high was $105.20, still highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – put it in freefall and now just above critical support at $99.90 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($103.99), then the 50 day $104.03 (just crossed), and the 200 day $99.90!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is a tad better at $101.31 +.34 in a narrow inside session.
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European equity markets little changed, Asia higher: UK -0.1% vs +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.1%; France +0.1% vs +0.9% vs – vs -0.8% vs +0.8%; Germany +0.1% vs +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.6%; Japan +0.2% vs +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +1.1% vs -0.3%; Hang Seng +0.4% vs +0.9% vs +0.9% vs +0.3% vs +0.7%; Korea +1% vs +0.6% vs 0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.1%; India +0.4% vs closed vs -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +05%. U.S. equity futures higher: Dow +36; SPX +4.50; NDQ +13.25.

Some random thoughts

…remember that Billy Joel song?…aren’t you getting a wee bit tired of markets that grind higher but in reality are trendless with little or no conviction thus tying the hands of money managers while the high freaks make money on (limited) volatility. Tomorrow is month end and with the first half producing after last quarters volatility and strong 12-month performance, would you want to risk that in the next five months? Some may…not TB!

Meanwhile the world is turning into a conflagration as we see a growing religious war: Christians and Jews against Muslims; Muslim Sunni’s against Shia; Syria in chaos; Libya back in turmoil; Egypt also struggling; Saudi Arabia could overthrow the ruling family; Africa has hot spots all over it. Russia in power struggle with Ukraine and shooting down airliners and denying accountability while the EU wrings its hands over the economic costs and weighing those against financial gain. Thankfully for us all we have is a dysfunctional government…but elections coming…all eyes on the primaries. Oh, and of course the banks who continue to lose suit after suit…record upon record…while their CEO’s reap huge rewards…ain’t that right, Jamie? Oh yeah, and those record fines are a pittance compared to the illicit profits earned…with no clawbacks, few firings, and not apologies…after all the fines are paid by the shareholders…ain’t that a bitch?

Don’t let the bastards get you down…would say it in Latin but takes too long.

It’s a great life if you don’t weaken…right?

TB

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5/29/14…July is almost over…and showing it

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “One’s destination is never a place but rather a new way of looking at things.” – Henry Miller…and most of his places were four-letter words!

This week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the Q2 GDP Advance (Wednesday), July ISM Manufacturing Survey and July Employment Situation report (Friday). We will also get July Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), May Case-Shiller Home Prices and July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), July ADP Employment (Wednesday), Q2 Employment Cost and July Chicago PMI (Thursday), June Construction Spending, July Motor Vehicle Sales and July Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday). In addition, the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting on July 29th – July 30th with an announcement on the 30th. Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*U.S. Equity Index Futures Advance as Ruble Declines While Bonsd Strengthen
*UPS Lowers 2014 Profit Outlook on Costs to Smooth Holiday Shipping Period
*Banco Espirito Santo Bonds Drop With Stock After Report on Estimated Loss
*UBS, Deutsche Bank’s Quarterly Earnings Overshadowed by Litigation Costs
*Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Are Rising at Slower Pace, Case Schiller Says
*German Bunds Rising to Records Show All is Not right in Euro-Araa Ecnoomy
*General Motors Falters as Car Recalls Erode Market Shares
*China Probe of Ex-Security Chief Zhou Is Highest Profile Case in 60 Years
*Israel Steps Up Attacks on Gaza as Netanyahu Warns of Prolonged Campaign
*New Russia Sanctions Readied by U.S. EU Battles Rage in Ukraine’s East
*Veteran’s Health Bill Set for Pre-Break Passage as U.S. Border Funds Stall

Monday’s Market Summary:

A dull session with only three indices up or down: Dow Transports DOWN 1.1%! – biggest loser; Dow Utilities UP 1.3%!!!; Russell 2000 -0.5%. The rest were between+/- 0.1%!?! Volume remained weak, A/D’s were negative for a second session; new 52 week highs steady at 152 but new lows nearly tripled to 141. The VIX rose sharply hitting 13.64 (bearish) thru mid-session then fell to 12.54 before closing at 12.56 -.13…hmmm.

Total NYSE Volume rose slightly but remains weak at 2.77B shares vs 2.63B vs 3.09B vs 2.05B vs 2.87B vs 2.58B vs 3.1B shares. Recent high volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume rose slightly to 589M shares vs 570M vs 631M vs 581m vs 589M five days after plunging to 541M, the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th . There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 703M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 667M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were negative for a second session! NYSE -1.3x vs -1.9x vs -1.1x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x; Nasdaq -1.7x vs -2.1x vs -1.2x vs 1:1 vs +. Breadth was similar: NYSE -1.4x vs -2x vs +1.2x vs +1.07x vs +2.3x; Nasdaq -1.5x vs -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x. New 52 Week Highs were steady at 152 vs 150 vs 280 vs 284 vs 276 vs – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows nearly tripled to 141 vs 55 vs 70 vs 49 vs 76 – recent range is 24-214. S&P VIX climbed to 13.64 before closing at 12.56 -.13? with a range of 12.54-13.64. Follow closely.

Bonds closed slightly weaker but after setting new 12-month highs on Friday: 10 yr closed at 2.49% -3/16. 30 yr closed 3.25% -1/8. The long TIP closed at 0.89% +1/4. Overnight they are doing better: 10’s 2.46% +1/4; 30’s 3.22% +5/8; and long TIP 0.86% +7/8 – a new low! Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.328% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields lower, Germany 1.11% -3; UK 2.54% -4; France 1.51% -3; Italy 2.64% -4; Spain 2.46% -3; Portugal 3.57 +1; Greece 5.75% +1 The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.51% -1.
Gold closed slightly higher for a second day at $1305.80 +.50 with a two day range of $1289.40-$1311.40 Psychological support at $1300. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Just 3 closes below $1300 in 25 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is back above all three moving averages which remain near locked and remain CRITICAL…40 day $1297, the 50 day $1294 with final support still at the 200 day $1287!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1309.80 +4.00 in an inside trading session.

Crude closed weaker at $101.67-.42 with a session low of $100.90 – lowest since 7/16! Last Tuesday’s high was $105.20, still highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – put it in freefall with critical support at $99.91 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 50 day ($103.87), then the 40 day $104.03, and the 200 day $99.91!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker again at $100.78-.89 with a low of $100.67!
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Global equity markets higher: UK +0.6% vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7%; France +0.9% vs – vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +0.7; Germany +0.8% vs -0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.7%; Japan +0.6% vs +0.5% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.8%; Hang Seng +0.9% vs +0.9% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.7%! Korea +0.6% vs 0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.5%; India closed vs -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +05% vs +1.2%! U.S. equity futures : Dow +40; SPX +3.10; NDQ +6.50.

Some random thoughts (repeating yesterday’s late commentary):

…Bill Moyers had a guy on his program from the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank! Billed himself as a ‘compassionate conservative, but then went on to prove he is no different from the GOP right! Minimum Wage…would be a bad idea as it would hurt more workers; WalMart? We have no right to tell them what to pay workers – even when many of them are on welfare? CEO Compensation? No way…free markets will get it right; lastly, we should trust conservatives to do the right thing. What a waste of time to listen to this guy! A total jerk. Compassionate conservative…TB’s $&%!

Have a fantastic day!

TB

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7/28/14…a compassionate conservative you say? You don’t say!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I think I agree with the old lady who said if God had intended us to fly, he would never have given us railroads.”
– Michael Flanders

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “I feel very strongly that change is Good because it stirs up the system.” – Ann Richards…that it does Ann, that it does…in the hands of good people!

Next week’s economic calendar is packed with important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the Q2 GDP Advance (Wednesday), July ISM Manufacturing Survey and July Employment Situation report (Friday). We will also get July Dallas Fed Manufacturing (Monday), May Case-Shiller Home Prices and July Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), July ADP Employment (Wednesday), Q2 Employment Cost and July Chicago PMI (Thursday), June Construction Spending, July Motor Vehicle Sales and July Consumer Sentiment Final (Friday). In addition, the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting on July 29th – July 30th with an announcement on the 30th. Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service.

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Dollar Stores Agrees to $8.5 Billion Merger After Prodding From Carl Icahn
*Zillow Agrees to Acquire Rival Trulia for $3.5 Billion in All-Stock Deal
*Stocks in U.S. Decline With Oil on Housing Data as Russian Shares Retreat
*Barclays Dark Pool Trading Rises After N.Y. suit Spurs Two Week Decline
*Lloyds Attacked by Carney as Bank Is Fined $383 Million for Libor Rigging
*Israel Unexpectedly Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 0.5% on Gaza Conflict
*CurrencyTraders Bemoaning Losses Detect Reprieve as Volatility Revived
*BpfA Appoints Coben, Deignan as Co-Heads of Global Equity Capital Markets

Friday’s Market Summary:

A downer! All indices off from 0.5% to 0.7% except the Russell 2000 which plunged 1.1%!!! – isn’t that supposed to be a proxy for the overall economy? Even Dow Utilities were off 0.7%! This despite better than expected Durable Goods Orders that were touted as improving growth…is growth a bad thing?…will that be the new normal? Only saving grace was volume plunged again thus negating the drop. VIX back above ‘12’ again, and A/D’s and Breadth were negative. New 52 week highs were more than halved while new lows topped 100.

Total NYSE Volume plunged to a very weak2.63B shares from 3.09B shares vs 2.05B shares vs 2.87B vs 2.58B vs 3.1B shares. Recent high volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume also plunged to 570M from a weak 631M shares vs 581m vs 589M four days after plunging to 541M, the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th . There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 703M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 168M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were negative: NYSE-1.9x vs -1.1x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x vs -1.7x vs +4.5x vs -4.3x; Nasdaq -2.1x vs -1.2x vs 1:1 vs +2x vs -1.6x vs +3.7x vs -2.5x. Breadth was similar: NYSE -2x vs +1.2x vs +1.07x vs +2.3x vs -1.6x vs +3.6x vs -5.3x!!! Nasdaq -1.7x vs +1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x vs +2.3x vs +1.07x vs +6.2x!!! vs -3.7x! New 52 Week Highs plunged to 150 vs 280 vs 284 vs 276 vs 376 vs 150 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows doubled to 55 vs 70 vs 49 vs 76 vs 77 vs 132 – recent range is 24-214. S&P VIX climbed back above ‘12’ again closing at 12.63 +0.80 with a narrow range of 12.03-12.75. Follow closely.

Other markets 3:45pm EDT – ok so I was late…what are you going to do? Shoot me?:

Bonds closed strong following two weak sessions with both the 30-yr and long TIP both at new 12 month highs: 10 yr closed at 2.47% -+5/16. 30 yr closed 3.24% +1-1/8. The long TIP closed at 0..87% +1-5/8, a new 12-month low of 0.90%. Overnight they are slightly better: 10’s 2.47% -1/16; 30’s 3.23% +1/16; and long TIP 0.87% +1/32 Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.328% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields lower, Greece plunging for a 2nd day – back below 6%! Germany 1.16% -1; UK 2.60% -1; France 1.56% -1; Italy 2.70% -3; Spain 2.52% -3; Portugal 3.62% -5; Greece 5.87% -19!!! The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% +1.

Gold rallied back a day after breaking $1300 and trading down to $1289.40, closing at $1305.30 +$12.60! Psychological support back at $1300. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Just 3 closes below $1300 in 24 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is back above all three moving averages which remain near locked and remain CRITICAL…40 day $1296, the 50 day $1293 with final support still at the 200 day $1287!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! This afternoon it is slightly higher at $1307.60 +$2.30 with a session high of $1311.40.

Crude also closed about even at $102.09 +0.02, but with a session low of $101.00 – lowest since 7/16! Last Tuesday’s high was $105.20, still highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – put it in freefall with critical support at $99.91 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 50 day ($103.87), then the 40 day $104.05, and the 200 day $99.91!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. This afternoon it is weaker again at $101.65 -.44, Low $100.90.
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European equity markets weak Asia higher, ex-India- for a 2nd day: UK -0.2% vs -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7%; France – vs -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.4; Germany -0.8% vs -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.7%; Japan +0.5% vs +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs closed; Hang Seng +0.9% vs +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.3%; Korea +0.7% vs +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.1%; India -0.5% vs -0.6% vs +05% vs +1.2%! vs +0.3%. U.S. equity markets at 3:55pm EDT: Dow +16; Transports -97???; Utilities +6.67; S&P 500 +0.95; Nasdaq Composite -4.50; NDQ 100 +2.55; Russell 2000 -4.42.

Some random thoughts:

…Bill Moyers had a guy on his program from the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank! Billed himself as a ‘compassionate conservative, but then went on to prove he is no different from the GOP right! Minimum Wage…would be a bad idea as it would hurt more workers; WalMart? We have no right to tell them what to pay workers – even when many of them are on welfare? CEO Compensation? No way…free markets will get it right; lastly, we should trust conservatives to do the right thing. What a waste of time to listen to this guy! A total jerk. Compassionate conservative…TB’s $&%!

Have a great week!

TB

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7/25/14…round and round she goes, where she stops…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I have a great dog. She’s half Labrador, half pit bull. It’s a good combination. Sure, she might bite off my leg, but she’ll bring it back to me.” – Jimi Celeste

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “It is better to be hated for what you are than to be loved for what you are not.” – Andre Gide
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Orders for U.S. Capital Goods Rose 1.4% in June After Revised Drop in May
*U.S. Stock-Index Futures Fall With Europe Shares on Earnings; Dollar Drops
*Russia Unexpectedly Raises Interest Rates as Economy Faces Sanctions Test – !?!
*U.K. Economy Overcomes Record Slump as Growth Forecast to Power Past U.S.
*RBS First-Half Profit Almost Doubles as McEwan Reduces Costs; Shares Soar
*AbbVie Second-Quarter Profit Exceeds Analysts’ Estimates on Humira Sales
*U.K. Prosecutors Said to Alert Ex-Alstom Employees of Charges After Probe – why can’t the U.S. do that?…hello, Eric Holder and Co.!
*Nortel Networks U.S. Unit Agrees to Pay Bondholders $1 Billion in Interest – a long wait!
*Deutsche Bank Seen Reporting Fourth Consecutive Decline in Trading Revenue – 4 strikes?
*New York Plaza Owner in Slammer Seeks to Use Prison House to Find Buyers – Italian prison!
*Netherlands Despairs Its 194 Murdered See No Justice as Russia Trade Rules – very sad, over war zone so will life insurance pay off? Russia won’t own up so are survivors out in the cold? Worse governments and even corporations (Royal Dutch) won’t act for fear of reprisals!!!
*Russia Accused by U.S. of Shelling Across Border as Kiev Coalition Falls – more sickness!
*U.S.-Backed Temporary Cease-Fire Being Considered to End Conflict in Gaza – considered!!!
*Putin Said to Press Ahead With Ukraine Gambit After Malaysian Jet Attack…right out of Adolph Hitler’s playbook…and the rest of the world sat and watched…history does repeat!
*Border-Funding Impasse Would Leave Agencies With Few Tools to Stem Crisis – see the GOP doesn’t want to fund securing the border so they can keep railing that it is unprotected – sick!!!
Thursday’s Market Summary:

Call it a neutral day, and one on rising volume but still weak. A/D’s and Breadth were meaningless, The Dow, Dow Transports and Nasdaq Composite were all unchanged! Dow Utilities rose 0.3% for honors, while the Russell 2000 was worst at -0.2%. The VIX rose but remains below ‘12’ and thus in bull territory.

Total NYSE Volume rose to a near average 3.09B shares from a weak 2.05B shares vs 2.87B vs 2.58B vs 3.1B vs 3.35B shares. Recent high volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume was better but still at a weak 631M shares vs 581m vs 589M three days after plunging to 541M, the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th .. There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 704M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 671M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were insignificant again: NYSE-1.1x vs +1.4x vs +2.2x vs -1.7x vs +4.5x vs -4.3x; Nasdaq -1.2x vs 1:1 vs +2x vs -1.6x vs +3.7x vs -2.5x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +1.2x vs +1.07x vs +2.3x vs -1.6x vs +3.6x vs -5.3x!!! Nasdaq +1.2x vs +1.2x vs +1.7x vs +2.3x vs +1.07x vs +6.2x!!! vs -3.7x! New 52 Week Highs steady at 280 vs 284 vs 276 vs 376 vs 150 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows slid back to 55 vs 70 vs 49 vs 76 vs 77 vs 132 – recent range is 24-214. S&P VIX rose for the first time in three sessions closing at 11.85 +.34 with a narrow range of 11.43-12.06. Follow closely.

Other markets:

Bonds closed weaker for a 2nd session with both the 30-yr and long TIP still near 12 month highs: 10 yr closed at 2.50% -5/16. 30 yr closed 3.29% -9/16. The long TIP was weaker again at 0.93% -5/16, two days after setting a new 12-month low of 0.90%. Overnight they are mixed: 10’s 2.51% -1/16; 30’s 3.29% +1/16; and long TIP 0.93% +1/8 Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.328% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields lower, Greece plunging for a 2nd day – back below 6%! Germany 1.16% -1; UK 2.60% -1; France 1.56% -1; Italy 2.70% -3; Spain 2.52% -3; Portugal 3.62% -5; Greece 5.87% -19!!! The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recently 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% +1.

Gold did a header not only breaking $1300 but trading down to $1289.40, before closing at $11292.70-$13.80! – not only lower than 7/15 but breaking the string of five straight closes above $1300 after falling the prior four days! Psychological support back at $1300. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Now 3 closes below $1300 in 23 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It broke 2 of the 3 key moving averages which remain near locked and were CRITICAL…support that is now MAJOR RESISTANCE: 50 day $1293, the 40 day $1295 with final support very close at the 200 day $1287!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1297.50 +$4.80 with a session low of $1298! The three straight inside sessions provided fair warning as suggested by TB!.

Crude also closed lower at $102.07 -.97. Tuesday’s high was $105.20, still highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – put it in freefall with critical support at $99.94 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 50 day ($103.87), then the 40 day $104.09, and the 200 day $99.92!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker again at $101.62 -.45.
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European equity markets weak Asia higher, ex-India: UK -0.2% vs +0.1% vs +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.4%; France -0.8% vs +0.8% vs +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Germany -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.7%; Japan +1.1% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs closed vs -1%; Hang Seng +0.3% vs +0.7% vs +1.7%!!! vs -0.3% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.1% vs +0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%; India -0.6% vs +05% vs +1.2%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures weaker: DOW -16 (range 42); SPX -3 (5!); NDQ -11 (9!)

Some random thoughts:

…only the high frequency traders know! If you like risking your retirement money in a market that is rigged against you – both up and down by day traders with enormous clout, have fun. Stocks are not in bubble mode…yet, and might not get there if they keep pushing them up or down within ranges for their benefit while you have nothing to show for it. Remember CNBC is the equivalent of FOX NEWS…you decide.

…Have a fantastic relaxing weekend!

TB

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7/24/14…in free market captialism we trust…or do we?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Men know that if a woman had to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant’s life, she would probably save the infant’s life without even considering whether there are men on base.” – Dave Berry

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Always remember that the future comes one day at a time.”
– Dean Acheson (Secretary of State under Dwight D. Eisenhower…and a good one too!)

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Credit Suisse to Exit Commodities After Bank Has Biggest Loss Since 2008 – risk averse?
*Global Stocks Advance as Gold, Treasuries Drop; Rupiah Weakens at Election
*Indonesian Stocks, rupiah Drops as Prabowo Pulls Presidential Vote Monitors – Muslim sumer?
*CIT Agrees to Buy Onewest Bank for $3.4 Billion in Cash, Stock Transaction
*Putin is Left Out of Global Market Rally as $28 Billion Erased From Micex – good! More please!
*Draghi Cedes Control of Euro to Yellen as Bond Link Dissolves – viva la Fed!
*Small-Cap VIX Highest to S&P 500 Since 2006 Echoing Valuation Concerns – as it should!
*Coca-Cola Misses Sales Estimates as Demand for Juice, Diet Coke Slow Down – another red flag!
*Half of Europe’s Jobs Threatened by Machines in Echo of Risk Facing U.S.
*Dubai Haven Status Frays as Investor Risk Follows Iraq Higher – significant!
*Santander Torn as Botin’s Guggenheim-Like Arts Center Divides His Hometown
*ConocoPhillips Proves Best Among 401(k) Plans With Facebook Least Generous – natch!
*EU Works to Punish Russia as Bodies From Jet Crash Leave Rebel Territory – just do it!
*Widodo Heads for Indonesia Presidential Win as Prabowo Challenges Validity – another torch?
*Bloody Scenes Haunt Children as Bombs Fall in Israel-Palestinian Fighting – tragic!
*Ukraine Joins North Korea No-Fly Zone as Carriers Seek Firmer Route Rules

Monday’s Market Summary:

Your basic down day with nobody home. Volume slumped to 2.58B shares and traded on the floor of the NYSE plunged to 541M – second lowest of 2014 (barely). All indices were off from 001% (Dow Utilities) to 0.4% (NDQ 100)…nothing to see here folks! So lets look at bonds…shall we? They had a nice rally that faded into the close but with the long bond closing at 3.25% – a new 12-month low! Long Tips,likewise to 0.90%. Gold had a second straight ‘inside session’ – a very narrow range too, while Crude rallied to $104.99 (highest since 4/2), before settling at $104.59 +$1.46. Now for the details:
Total NYSE Volume plunged to a very weak 2.58B shares vs 3.1B vs 3.44B vs 2.66B vs 3.14B. Last real above average volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume plunged to the third lowest of 2014 (531M was the low) – with 236M at the bell!!! This vs a strong 758M shares vs 592M vs 583M vs 654M vs 570M – 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th .. There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 704M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 674M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were modestly negative: NYSE -1.7x vs +4.5x vs -4.3x vs +1.2x vs -2x; Nasdaq -1.6x vs +3.7x vs -2.5x vs+1.7x vs 1:1. Breadth was mixed…sort of: NYSE -1.6x vs +3.6x vs -5.3x!!! vs +1.8x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq +1.07x vs +6.2x!!! vs -3.7x! vs -1.1x vs -1.7x. New 52 Week Highs declined to 150 vs 184 vs 132 vs 186 vs 154 vs 235 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows steady at 76 vs 77 vs 132 vs 79 vs 83 vs 53 vs 57 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX reversed yet again closing at: 12.86 +.75 with a narrow range of 12.46-13.62. Watch.

Overnight markets:

Bonds rallied in the long end with both the 30-yr and long TIP at 12 month highs, while 10’s did slightly better, still affirming Thursday’s TEN basis point rally on the plane downing: 10 yr closed at 2.47% +1/8. 30 yr closed 3.25% +5/8. The long TIP, at a new 12-month low of 0.90% +7/8. Overnight they are weaker: 10’s 2.49% -1/4; 30’s 3.28% -7/16; and long TIP 0.92% -9/16 Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields higher: Germany 1.17% +2; UK 2.60% +4; France 1.58% +2; Italy 2.77% –; Spain 2.56% –; Portugal 3.69% +4; Greece 6.14% +1. The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.53% -1.

Gold had a rare second straight inside session and closed slightly higher at $1313.90 +$3.50 – 3rd straight close above $1300 after falling for four days! Psychological support remains at $1300. Last Thursday’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Just 2 closes below $1300 in 21 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is back above all three key moving averages which remain near locked and are CRITICAL: 50 day $1293, the 40 day $1293 and 200 day $1288!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is weaker at $1309.90 -$5.60 in a third straight inside session – something must give…and soon. Up or down? U pick ‘em.

Crude had a nice rally climbing to $104.99, highest since 7/2 before closing at $104.59 +$1.46. Tuesday’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has it in freefall with critical support next at $99.94 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. Resistance is now at $106.19, the 6/27 high just before the plunge. Support at the 40 day ($104.14), then the 50 day $103.82, and the 200 day $99.93!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is higher again at $105.00 +.41 with a session high of $105.25…surprise, surprise!!!
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Global equity markets rallying after two weak sessions: UK +0.7% vs -0.3% vs -0.4%; France +0.7% vs -0.4% vs -0.2%; Germany +0.7% vs -0.9% vs -0.7%; Japan +0.8% vs closed vs -1%; Hang Seng +1.7%!!! vs -0.3% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.5% vs -0.1% vs -0.1%; India +1.2%! vs +0.3% vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures rallying: DOW +62 (range 53); SPX +8.20 (9); NDQ +20.75!!! (21!)

Some random thoughts:

…this just out…should make your blood boil. Senate might do something…so the House can kill it! Sick damned Congress!

Senate Report: Hedge Funds Avoided Billions of Dollars in Taxes Using Wall Street Technique

Hedge funds used a tax-avoidance technique offered by Wall Street banks to skirt federal leverage trading limits and avoid billions in U.S. taxes, Senate investigators said in a report released Monday.

The report suggests the practice was widespread in the financial industry over the last 15 or so years, with one hedge fund, Renaissance Technology Corp., potentially saving $6.8 billion in federal taxes by claiming a tax break based on the use of financial products known as basket options.

Investigators said two banks, Deutsche Bank and Barclays Bank, sold 199 basket options to more than a dozen hedge funds, which used them to conduct more than $100 billion in trades.

The Senate panel will hold a hearing on the report on Tuesday, with witnesses from the hedge fund and the two banks.

Source; WJS, July 22,2014

 

…Have a great day!

TB

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…7/21/14…Monday, Monday…yawn

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “If you can’t find a lawyer who knows the law, find a lawyer who knows the judge.” – anon

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Lost time is never found again.” – Benjamin Franklin

US economic data in the past two weeks has been mixed. The trend in jobless claims improved modestly, suggesting a stronger payroll report is possible for July. Regional manufacturing surveys were strong and indicate a positive bias for ISM Manufacturing this month. Retail sales improved moderately in Q2 suggesting that the consumer spending accelerated from its 1% Q1 pace, current estimates are for 3.3% Q2 GDP growth. Next week’s economic calendar is fairly light. The highlight of the week will be the June CPI (Tuesday) and June Durable Goods Orders (Friday). We will also get July Richmond Fed Manufacturing and June Existing Home Sales (Tuesday), and June New Home Sales (Thursday). Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service
Bloomberg Top Stories:
*Russia Stocks Drop With Bonds as Sanctions Concerns Grow After Jet Downing
*Finance Industry Shows Pessimism on Bonus in Poll as Revenue Disappoints
*Stocks in Europe Decline With Russian Equities as Gas, Spanish Bonds Rise
*Barclays Dark Pool Volume Slumped by 66% Week After New York Filed Lawsuit
*Yellen’s Earnings Gauges Blurred by Boomer-Millennial Shift in Workplace
*Dark Pool Disfavor Above 50% in Poll Showing Concern Over Speed of Trading – ya don’t say!
*Foreign-Exchange Rigging Probe Said to be Readied by U.K.’s Fraud Office
*McDonald’s, Yum Halt Orders From China Supplier on Out-of-Date Meat Report – yuck!!!
*World Is No Less Ablaze Than Where We Left You Off on Friday – …perhaps worse!
*Russia’s Richest in ‘Horror’ as Putin Risks Global Isolation Over Ukraine – rein him in!
*Putin Defying Critics Says Jet Crash Shouldn’t be Used for Political Ends – what then?
*Gaza Battle Spurs Diplomatic Effort to End Conflict as Death Toll Tops 500 – worrisome!
*Obama Seen Gaining Over Putin as U.S. Cites Crash to Press for EU Action
*Clinton Earns $12 Million Aftrer Obama Service, Eroding 2016 Income Message – the rich get…

Friday’s Market Summary:

Nice rally, albeit suspicious. Note that Friday was options expiration…something TB missed amongst all the turmoil! The two Nasdaq’s and lagging of late, Russell 2000 were all up 1.6% for honors – doesn’t that strike you as strange? Next came Dow Transports +1.3% followed by Dow Utilities +1.1%, then the S&P +1% and bringing up the rear the Dow +0.7%. NYSE Financials +1% (Brokers +1.9%!; KBW Banks +1.1%; Nasdaq Banks +1.2%)…make sense to you? Not to TB!
Total NYSE Volume declined to 3.1B shares vs a solid 3.44B vs 2.66B vs 3.14B vs 2.82B. Last real above average volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume finally rose to a strong 758M shares (150M at the bell however!) vs 592M vs 583M vs 654M vs 570M – 537M on 7/3 was second weakest since April 30th .. There have been just two sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 705M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 676M shares ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

A/D’s were strong: NYSE +4.5x vs -4.3x vs +1.2x vs -2x vs +1.8x; Nasdaq +3.7x vs -2.5x vs+1.7x vs 1:1 vs -3x. Breadth was similar: NYSE +3.6x vs -5.3x!!! vs +1.8x vs -1.6x vs +2.1x; Nasdaq +6.2x!!! vs -3.7x! vs -1.1x vs -1.7x vs +1.5x. New 52 Week Highs sharply higher at 184 vs 132 vs 186 vs 154 vs 235 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows plunged to 77 vs 132 vs 79 vs 83 vs 53 vs 57 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX reversed again but ‘12’ held: 12.27 -2.27!!! with a range of 12.04-13.65. Nearing bullish territory again but Friday was options expiration.

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed weaker following Thursday’s TEN basis point rally on the plane downing: 10 yr closed at 2.48% -5/16. 30 yr closed 3.29% -9/16. The long TIP, which hit a new recent low of 0.91% on 7/17, closed at 0.93% -9/16. Overnight they are slightly higher: 10’s 2.48% +1/32; 30’s 3.28% +1/8; and long TIP 0.92% +7/216 Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.233% 3 mos.; 0.327% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.08-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields little changed: Germany 1.15% –; UK 2.58% +2; France 1.56% -1; Italy 2.76% -2; Spain 2.56% -3; Portugal 3.65% –; Greece 6.13% –. The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.54% –.

Gold had an inside session and closed slightly lower at $1309.40 -$7.50 – only the 2nd close above $1300 after falling for four days! Psychological support remains at $1300. Last Thursday’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Just 2 closes below $1300 in 20 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is back above all three key moving averages which remain near locked and are CRITICAL: 50 day $1292, then the 40 day $1292 and 200 day $1288!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it has gained back Friday’s loss and is now $1317.50 +$8.10 in a narrow inside session – watch $1300!!!

Crude had an even narrower inside session, closing at $103.13 -.06. Tuesday’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has it in freefall with critical support next at $99.94 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It has resistance at the 50 day ($103.64), thenthe 40 day $104.11, SUP the 200 day $99.92!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is slightly higher at $103.43 +.41.

Global equity markets remain weak: UK -0.3% vs -0.4%; France -0.4% vs -0.2%; Germany -0.9% vs -0.7%; Japan closed vs -1%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.3%; Korea -0.1% vs -0.1%; India +0.3% vs +0.3%. U.S. equity futures weaker: DOW -37 (range 42); SPX -4.30 (6); NDQ -4 (11)

Some random thoughts:

…there is far too much going on to think that fundamentals mean anything here…best to ‘cocoon’ oneself and wait for the dust to settle…TB is thoroughly disgusted.

…still…hope you have a great week…don’t let the bastards get you down! Like Putin!!!

TB

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7/18/14…it takes a plane downing (review of this weeks trading)

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A study of economics finds that the best time to buy anything is last year.” – Marty Allen

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Things don’t change; people change.” – Henry David Thoreau, and
“If you can’t feed a hundred people, then feed just one.” – Mother Teresa…besides yourself!

Bloomberg Top Stories:
*AbbVie Seals $54.8 Billion Shire Deal in Booming Tax Migration From U.S.
*Stocks in Europe Retreat With Russian Equities as Treasuries,Yen Decline
*Canada’s Inflation Unexpectedly Accelerated to 2.4% in June on Food Costs – note there are 2 types of inflation…induced by demand and cost induced which lowers demand for other goods…like wages not increasing accordingly???
*Bitcoin Can’t Shake Bubble Image in Global Poll After 45% Price Collapse – what the hell is wrong with people who fear the dollar so much they buy these…hey, I got some tulip bulbs…
*GE Earnings Meet Estimate as Retail Finance IPO Targeted for End of July
*Microsoft Job Cuts Can’t Cool Seattle as Demand for Code Writers Sizzled
*Malaysian Air Declines Most in Nine Weeks After Plane Shot Down in Ukraine – duh! Twice!
*Greece Seen Needing Third Bailout With Debt Sales Insufficient to Plug Gap – but bonds?
*Portugal Explores Santander Interest in BES Investment, El Economista Says
*Bank CoCo Insurance to Surge in Scandinavia as Conversion Triggers Are Set
*Pound Bulls Seen Profiting on Euro Wagers Beating Dollar: Market Reversal
*Americans Unlike Asia-to-Europe Show No Qualms With Pot to Guns
*Kurdish Oil Takeover Fuels Independence Dreams Amid Iraqi Collapse – thank you, Cheney!
*Russia and Ukraine Trade Accusations Over Downed Malaysia Airlines Plane
*Israel Readies Broader Gaza Offensive After Pushing Forces Into Territory
*Grieving Families Gather Again at Malaysia Airport, This Time Without Hope
*Scottish Independence Gains Voter Support With Referendum Two Months Away
Last THREE Days Market Summary:

No, TB did not take a vacation…far from it…he had problems with both computers and had to buy a new desktop. Tried to do an update yesterday but laptop would not cooperate and Word kept erasing what he was writing. Then came yesterday…TB was checking on client portfolios and noted they were all up…as were the indices…then a couple of minutes later everything was in the ‘red’ – bonds excepted…and later Gold caught on…Crude not so much. Here we go with the summary of everything this week:

Monday: An ‘up’ day…but here’s the thing: all indices were up from 0.5%-0.7% (except the strongest index year-to-date, Dow Utilities which plunged 1.1%)- amazingly synced, and total NYSE Volume was a strong 3.44B shares BUT shares traded on the NYSE floor remained at a weak 592M shares – just 9M more than Monday’s weak level. Even that was only achieved by 120M shares trading AT THE BELL!!!Advance/Declines and breadth were solidly positive and new highs nearly doubled to 235 while new lows remain weak and steady. VIX declined below ‘12’ to 11.82 -.26. Bonds closed weaker especially long TIP – closed at 0.99%!

Tuesday: A mixed session with Dow +0.5%, Transports +0.5%, the rest -0.02% (Utilities) to -0.5% (Nasdaq)…but one big loser: Russell 2000 -1%!!! A warning? Despite the mixed session both A/D’s and Breadth were negative! New highs plunged; new lows rose. VIX 11.96 +.14 range rising. Bonds closed slightly better while Gold and Crude declined – the former closing below $1300; latter breaking $100

Wednesday: stocks put in a modest up session on average of late volume. Just about A/D’s and breadth only slightly positive on NYSE and slightly NEGATIVE on Nasdaq! New highs up modestly, lows stable. Bonds were modestly higher as were Gold and Crude.
Bonds closed lower. Gold plunged, trading down to $1302, lowest since 6/19 – when the rally began, before closing at $1306.70 -$30.70, while Crude barely budged…that is, if you ignore its low of $100.22 – lowest since May 12th and closed at $100.91 +.08. It has been up just once in the last 11 session!

Thursday: opened slightly lower, then the Dow ‘peaked’ at +13…stalled and then came the first news of the plane crash…minutes later announced as hit by a missile (took most of the afternoon before this was admitted…selloff was modest (Dow -105), then a rebound and then slowly and steadily lower for the remainder of the session…Dow closing -161 and just off the low…still above 40/50 day m/a’s though! All indices were off from 1.0% (Utilities) to -1.6% (Russell 2000). A/D’s and Breadth were decidedly negative!!! New Highs fell by a third; New lows up about as much. VIX closed at 14.54 +3.54!!! with a range of 10.85 (very bullish) to 15.35 (bearish!). Bonds rallied sharply (natch); Gold opened about $5 higher then went vertilcal following the news hitting $1325…still in recent range and closed up $17.10 at $1316.90; Crude was flat until the news then rose from $101.50 to $102.20 on the news (mild!)…then slowly rose to $103.10, then plunged back to $101.90(???), before zigzaging back to $103.94 before closing at $103.19.

Here are the indices for the week:
Dow: -0.9% vs +0.5% vs – vs +0.7% vs +0.2%
Dow Transports: -1.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.4% vs +0.7% vs+0.4%
Dow Utilities: -1% vs +0.5% vs +0.5% vs -1.1% vs -0.5%
S&P 500: -1.2% vs +0.5% vs -0.2% vs +0.5% vs +0.2%
Nasdaq Comp: -1.4% vs +0.4% vs -0.5% vs +0.6% vs +0.4%
NDQ 100: -1.4% vs +0.2% vs -0.4% vs +0.6% vs +0.6%
Russell 2000: -1.6% vs +0.5% vs -1% vs +0.6% vs -0.2%
NYSE Financials; -1.3% vs -0.2% +0.4% vs +0.5% vs – (
Total NYSE Volume reversed again to a solid 3.44B shares from 2.66B vs 3.14B vs 2.82B vs 3.22B vs 2.66B vs an extremely weak 1.99B. Last real above average volume was 4.25B (end of quarter). Real NYSE Volume barely budged, despite the rally, to 592M shares vs 583M vs 654M vs 570M vs 683M vs 602M vs 537M – second weakest since April 30th vs 597M –contrast to 1.49B at end of quarter. That and options expiry’s 1.72B shares the only ones above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average remains at a very weak 704M. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 673M shares (still falling), ranging from 531M to 1.72B.

Look at volume over the past week and note how minimal it was yesterday considering the impact of the plane downing: Total NYSE: 3.35B shares vs 3.37B vs 3.29B vs 3.44B vs 2.66B. Now look at floor trades on the NYSE: 705M (right on the WEAK 12-month average) vs 675M vs 731M vs 592M (very weak) vs 583M. Note: the average since 4/30 is just 675M shares – that is WEAK!!!

A/D’s were VERY negative (NASDAQ is telling us something!!!): NYSE -4.3x! vs +1.2x vs -2x vs +1.8x vs +1.2x; Nasdaq -2.5x! vs+1.7x vs 1:1 vs -3x! vs +1.2x vs -3.8x vs -3.9x. Breadth was miserable too: NYSE 5.3x!!! vs +1.8x vs -1.6x vs +2.1x vs +1.1x; Nasdaq -3.7x! vs -1.1x vs -1.7x vs +1.5x vs +1.3x vs -2.2x vs +1.5x vs -6.2x!!! vs -3.5x. New 52 Week Highs plunged to132 vs 186 vs 154 vs 235 vs 146 – recent range is 71-580!!! New Lows were modestly higher at 132 vs 79 vs 83 vs 53 vs 57 – recent range is 24-214.
S&P VIX rose sharply at put buying surged following the crash, closing at 14.54 +.3.54!!! vs 10.79!!! vs 11.96 vs 11.82 vs12.09 – full cycle??? The range extended to 10.85-15.35!!! to While in bullish territory it gives little credence to the positive sessions of late. 7/3’s close was a new recent low 10.32, slightly better than the 10.34 on June’s options expiration!

Overnight markets:

Bonds closed very strong (TEN basis points!!!) following the crash news which brought on a flight to quality: 10 yr closed at 2.45%!!! +11/16. 30 yr closed 3.27% +1-3/8. The long TIP, which hit a low of 0.96% on 7/11, took that out closing at 0.913%!!! +1-15/16! Overnight they are weaker but holding most of gains: 10’s 2.48% -1/4; 30’s 3.28% -5/16; and long TIP 0.93% -1/2. Cycle highs: 30 yr high was 3.97% on 12/31; the 10 yr recent high 3.03%! Long TIP was 1.64%. The (record?) low of 0.36% was set on 4/5/13.
Libor update: 0.232% 3 mos.; 0.325% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and is 0.09-0.10% where it has been for weeks! Foreign bond yields mixed and holding gains: Germany 1.15% –; UK 2.58% -1; France 1.57% –; Italy 2.81% +2; Spain 2.62% –; Portugal 3.67% –; Greece 6.15% +2…even with news they will require yet another bailout??? The recent high on selloff was 6.75%. Highly volatile!!! Recent range 5.42% to 12.57%. Japan: 0.54% +1.

Gold rallied on the news and rose to $1325 before settling at $1316.90 +$17.10 – first close above $1300 in three days! Psychological support remains at $1,300. Last Thursday’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! Now just 2 closes below $1300 in 19 sessions since plunging on 4/14! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! It is back above all three key moving averages which remain near locked and are CRITICAL: 50 day $1292, then the 40 day $1292 and 200 day $1288!!! Note the recent high of $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13, then ended the session with a negative key reversal sparking the downturn! Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly lower at $1309.80 -$7.10 in a narrow inside session – watch $1300!!!.

Crude finally rebounded after the plane downing, closing at $103.19 +$2.99. Tuesday’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21 – SIX handles since 6/30! 6/20’s run to $107.73 – highest since 9/19/13, a huge down session – has it in freefall with critical support next at $99.94 – the 200 day! 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. It is now back above the 50 day ($103.61) with RES at the 40 day $104.15, SUP the 200 day $99.92!!! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since March 1, 2012. Overnight it is weaker at $103.13 -.06 after trading up to $103.94.

Global equity markets weaker again (plane downing came in last hour of European trading; Asia was closed): UK -0.4%; France -0.2%; Germany -0.7%; Japan -1%; Hang Seng -0.3%; Korea -0.1%; India +0.3% vs -0.1% vs -1.4%! vs -0.3% vs -0.5% vs -2%! U.S. equity futures – only Dow in narrow range???: DOW +3 (range 26); SPX +2.20 (16); NDQ +10 (32)

Some random thoughts:

…what a difference a day makes! A couple of days ago we were grousing about longer lines at check-in for flights due to forced power-ups of cell phones, computers, etc. Now we have a whole new fear…being shot down by a missile! In 1993, the Ruskies shot down a Korean Air 747 which had lost its IFF transmitter (TB would like to know how the pilot that fired the rockets feels today; then during the Gulf War we accidentally shot down a smaller airliner; now this. This was a sophisticated missile to take out an aircraft at 33,000 feet…and thus points to the Russians as having provided it to their own rebels who had no IFF to determine whether it was hostile…even then it was no threat merely perceived (?) as a transport…hmmm. Already the accusations and denials of culpability are flying.

But here is the thing…Al Qaeda and other groups have some sophisticated missiles…enough to do this? Imagine if that plane had been over U.S. airspace??? Think of the impact on the economy as people become afraid to fly…after all, the attack could be made on take-off or landing and not require more than a handheld ground to air missile. Think about all those take-offs and landings in Kabul…and Baghdad!!!

The market reaction was muted…and puzzling…except for the plunge in Malaysia Air which must be feeling very unlucky…or plagued!

Have a great weekend…relax and put this all behind you…or try to!
TB

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