9/18…billionaires and education…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “I got a job as a short-order cook. I was cooking a chicken on the rotisserie. I was turning the wheel, and I was singing “Arrevederci, Roma,” and a drunk came by and said, “You’ve got a nice voice, but your monkey’s on fire.”

– London Lee

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “If you’re going through hell, keep going.” – Winston Churchill

 Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Draghi’s Loan Program Missing Estimates Complicates Stimulus Goal for ECB

*Stocks in Europe Advance With S&P Futures on Fed Comment; Commodities Fall? Faux rally?

*U.K. Economy Ready for Battle as Scottish Vote Suspense Masks Resilience

*Bayer Will Spin Off Plastics Unit to Concentrate on Pharmaceuticals, Crops

*’Yes’ or ‘No’, Winner of Today’s Independence Referendum Is Brand Scotland – UK: make nice!

*Markets Don’t Panic as Independence Voting Begins; Scotland Reality Check – see above!

*Alibaba Investors in ‘What, Me Worry?’ Mode as Global Roadshow Lures Bulls – aka: sukkahs!

*UBS’s Weber Says Litigation Is a Bigger Worry to Investors Than ECB Test – they should know!

*Doral Financial Seeks $229.9 Million Tax Refund Through Puerto Rico Trial – no way! Yes, way?

*Top 10 Reasons to Care About the Scotland Independence Vote – well…for one…

*Dirty Secret of $1 Trillion Loan Market Is When Do You Get Your Money Back –leveraged loans!

*Day of Reckoning for U.K. as Scotland Independence Vote Hangs in Balance  

*Obama’s No Combat Pledge Leave Room for U.S. Forces Operating in Shadows – but did you see? HE, like LBJ, wants to pick targets! Bad idea…very bad! Doesn’t trust military!

*London Empire of Finance Seen Outlasting Whatever Scotland Leaves Behind – well…sort of…

*Beheading Plot Thwarted by Police in Australia’s Largest Terrorism Raids

*Air France Risks a Second Week of Strikes as Pilots Threaten Extension

*Virtu’s Viola Reduces Asking Price for ‘Trophy’ Townhouse to $98 Million

 Wednesday’s Market Summary:

Yesterday, TB directed you to Ed d’Agostino, Rational Bear. Some pretty stunning stats there. Today, courtesy of John Mauldin: John Mauldin/d’Agostino…also from Mr. Ed…showing stocks today are the most overvalued since 1929 and 2000! Oh, bull!…you say…but think about it? Nobody believed they were in those other two years…in fact, Irving Fisher, the top economist of the day,declared “stocks have reached a permanently high plateau…two weeks before the ’29 crash, and both he AND John Maynard Keynes…lost their money betting on a quick revival. The market can humble anyone who has ever espoused a belief…bull or bear. Too bad Keynes didn’t follow his own admonition (based on his own humbling experience):”the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” So…TB may still be correct…and if so…as in 1998 and 2006 while those around him ‘engorged’ he sidelined it and in the end came out ahead. His own fatal flaw? Not knowing ‘when’ to get back in! Hey, recall Jeremy Siegel’s ‘Dow 50,000? Not only him but in 2010, Forbes predicted 50k by 2015…better hurry up Dow! Oh, and Siegel still says its fair value is 30,000. Want to bet? Oh, you already have…one way or the other!

Despite weakness early, ahead of the FOMC announcement…which was seen as more bullish than it was (for stocks), and more bearish (bonds by the close and overnight), stocks came back closing only slightly higher: +0.1-0.3% except Dow Transports +1% and Dow Utilities -0.2% – still the leaders ytd at +16.9% and 13.5% respectively – about double the S&P and a ‘quad’ above the Dow – the loser? Russell 2000 DOWN 0.8%!!! …and sounding a shrill warning! Oh, and NYSE Financials are down 0.4%! Strange but true! Volume identical at an average 3.14B shares…only the 3rd time since 8/7 >3B shares. A/D’s and Breadth were only slightly positive…especially in contrast to the magnitude of the negatives of the last two days! VIX declined to 12.62 -.11 but with a range of 11.73-14.53 -both extremes rejected…obviously!

TB can’t wait for tomorrow…are you waiting with ‘baited breath’?

Total NYSE Volume identical to Tuesday at 3.14B shares vs 3.14B vs 2.76B vs 3.2B vs 2.93B. While NYSE shares traded are back to ‘average’, real NYSE Volume barely budged and remains weak at a well below average 668M shares vs 649M vs 591M vs 694M (highest since 8/15’s 758M shares!!!) vs 605M. This markst the 23rd straight sub-700M share day! The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s barely positive – compare and contrast to the two negatives: NYSE: +1.1x vs +1.8x vs -1.9x vs -3.8x vs +1.3x; Nasdaq +1.3x vs +1.2x vs -3.2x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE +1.1x vs +2.5x vs -1.6x vs -2.6x vs +1.9x; Nasdaq +1.6x vs +1.9x vs -4.8x!!! vs -1.5x vs +1.7x. New 52 Week Highs climbed but to a below average 146 from a weak 84 vs 59 vs 101 vs 113 – recent range is 59-580!!! New Lows declined but to a near average 125 vs 186 vs 185 vs 110 vs 104 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX headed below ‘12’ for the first time in13 sessions to 11.73 but couldn’t hold, closing at 12.62 -.11 – session high was 14.53 a double top with Wednesday!

U.S. bond market weaker in the long end due to handwringing over FOMC statement: 10 yr 2.62% -1/16; 30 yr 3.37% -5/16, the long TIP 1.14%! (low was 0.87%!) -3/4. Coming back a tad overnight: 2.61% +1/16; 30’s 3.35% +5/16; and long TIP 1.12% +7/16 – inflation? Zip!  

Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.330% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, one-month, to just 0.12% one year!!! Foreign bond yields higher mostly following U.S. after FOMC, PIIGS lower ex-Greece (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.07% +2; UK 2.57% +5!; France 1.43% +3; Italy 2.40% -1; Spain 2.24! -4; Portugal 3.14% -3; Greece 5.73% +8 – after losing ground from the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.56% +1. Bonds remain ‘risky business’!

Gold closed slightly lower at $1234.90 -.80 but only after dropping to another new low of $1221.10 – lowest since 1/8/14 – this marks it’s 22nd straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 40 day at $1281, then the 200 day at $1284, then the 50 day at $1288 – tight and falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is tanking again with yet another new low of $1216.40 – lowest since 1/6!!! Is now $1224.10 -$11.80 – and the day is young! Silver remains weak and going sideways at $18.50 – lowest since July 2010! Wait…isn’t silver an industrial metal?

Crude closed slightly lower at 94.42 -.46 in an ‘inside session’, and remains weak, a day following a session high of $95.19 – highest since 9/2. Last Thursday’s low of $90.43 was lowest since 6/28/13! There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($96.16!!!), then the 50/200 day ($97.38), and lastly the 200 day (99.75) – 40/50 falling fast. The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is little changed in a parallel session at $94.48 +.06.

Global equity markets higher, ex-Hong Kong: UK +0.4% vs – vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.3%; France +0.6% vs +0.7% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs –; Germany +1% vs +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs –0.2%; Japan +1.1%! vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs closed vs +0.3%; Hang Seng -0.9% vs +1% vs -0.9% vs -1% vs -0.3%; Korea +0.2% vs +1% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +0.4%; India +1.7%!!! vs +0.5% vs -1.2% vs -0.9% vs +0.2%. U.S. equity futures strong; DOW and NDQ both gapped up large on the open: Dow +55 (range just 15 BUT plus 66 on gap up following yesterday’s rally!!!); SPX +7.70 (10); NDQ +16.25 (15).

 

Some random thoughts:

…yesterday’s The Roosevelts, part IV, was the best…THE BEST…so far. TB still has to wonder what the attraction is to the GOP from the ‘have-nots’ or anyone below upper-middle class. Did you ever stop to wonder if there still is a ‘middle class’? Try this…excluding home equity…which we have shown can be fleeting and a long term growth rate that about equals inflation (before brokers fees of course)…and ‘credit card debt’ makes it unlikely that one still exists – except in limited cases. That had been the legacy of of both Teddy and FDR…a middle class didn’t exist before them…just the haves and have nots…like the Bogie Bacall flick written by Hemingway.

This came across TB’s desk…er email…yesterday: seven-charts-explain-todays-billionaires. Pretty interesting characteristics in this study by Wealth X and UBS. Here are a few factoids:

  • There are precisely 2,325 in the world today
    • Collective wealth $7.3 trillion!
      • Poor things underperformed last year: wealth increased just 12% – aww
    • Expected to reach 4,100 by 2020 – a 56% increase!
    • Average age is 63
    • 48% founded or co-founded companies
      • Their combined wealth is $4.6 Trillion or 2/3 of total
    • Within the past year those who inherited it decreased to 20%
  • Demographics
    • 2,039 male; 286 female
    • Combined ave wealth: $6.36 trillion male; $930B femaile
    • Source: male 60% self-made; female 65,4% inheritance – due to ‘glass ceiling’?
  • Education – very interesting:
    • 35% no university (does this explain lack of emphasis on educational funding?)
    • 65% 42% bachelors; 26% masters; 21% MBA; 11% PhD
    • Most graduates (bachelors): University of Penn 25; Harvard 22; Yale 16%
      • 16% earned degree at one of the top 20 schools; 84% elsewhere

Pretty eye-opening…yet many (most?) of these oppose increasing education funding which of course widens the playing field…and student loan assistance? Get real! Article in last Sunday’s WSJ: a college degree is no longer necessary to get ahead…it is to keep you from falling behind. There have been virtually no increases in college grad starting pay since 1982! Ah, but the debt…

Enjoy your weekend! Oops…that’s for tomorrow…after options expire…will you?

TB

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9/17…a perfect day for flying…let’s fly!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “A conference is a gathering of important people who singly can do nothing but together can decide that nothing can be done.” – the late, great satirist Fred Allen

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “To find fulfillment…don’t exist with life – embrace it.” – Jim Beggs

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Consumer Prices in U.S. Unexpectedly Fall for First Time in More Than Year

*Stocks in U.S. Advance With Treasuries on Data Before Fed’s Rate Decision

*Billionaire Evtushenkov Place Under house Arrest Over Russian Oil assets – nothing new here

*Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Hits Nine-Year High as Recovery Strengthens

*Crashing Bund Yield Forecasts Signal QE to Come After Loans; Euro Credit

*Backlash Brews as Insurers, Banks Join REITS in Opposing FHLB Rule Change

*Dark Pools Confront More Transparent Future as Threats to Platforms Mounty – finally!!!

*Top U.S. General Dempsey Opens Door to Embed Troops in Islamic State Fight

*Scottish Campaign Sees Emotional Appeals as Brown Evokes Macbeth for Votes

*Mosul Schools go Back in Time as Islamic State Imposes New Curriculum

*Canary Wharf Feasts on Haggis as Traders Gird for Scots Referendum Results

 

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

Before we discuss yesterday’s market, TB wants to call your attention to an article…not because the author is also sounding warnings…but because of some interesting data in it: Ed d’Agostino, Rational Bear. Read it and YOU decide…note also that China pumped $81 billion into its six largest banks – why? Slowing economy. Wait…when the rest of the world was having its problems and mired in recession, what did the bulls say? ‘At least, China can keep the economy going. Old story, right? Every mention of a Chinese slowdown has been rebuffed by economic data…’their’ economic data which cannot be verified! Think about it!

As for yesterday, futures market was weak…our markets opened weak…then bounced as once again all indices were up…suspiciously even by 0.6+0.9% – except…Dow Utilities which were equal to the combined Dow 30 and Dow Transports: +1.2%! That, folks, is telling you something…oh, as is the Russell 2000 up just 0.4% – check out the above link! One last negative: Volume ROSE to 3.14B shares…only the 2nd time since 8/7 >3B shares…wait, but market rose…hint: market usually runs counter Tuesday before options expiry…short covering or balancing positions…only amateurs wait until Thursday of Friday. Of course this week is more problematic as the FOMC meeting ends today…hmmm, what will they say? A/D’s and Breadth were only slightly positive…especially in contrast to the magnitude of the negatives of the last two days! VIX declined to 12.73 -1.39 – confirming the earlier statement still more bear than neutral. Once again: “Do you feel lucky, punk?…well, do ya?” Thanks, Dirty Harry!…er Clint!

Total NYSE Volume returned to 3.14B shares from a below average of 2.76B from 3.2B (highest since 8/7!) vs 2.93B vs 2.86B. Real NYSE Volume also rose but remains well below average 649M shares at 591M vs 694M (highest since 8/15’s 758M shares) vs 605M vs 608M The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s back to positive but following two straight negatives: NYSE: +1.8x vs -1.9x vs -3.8x vs +1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.3x; Nasdaq +1.2x vs -3.2x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE +2.5x vs -1.6x vs -2.6x vs +1.9x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x; Nasdaq +1.9x vs -4.8x!!! vs -1.5x vs +1.7x vs +2x vs -3.9x. New 52 Week Highs modestly recovered to a still weak 84 vs a weak 59 vs 101 vs 113 vs 107 – recent range is 59-580!!! New Lows remained strong at 186 vs 185 vs 110 vs 104 vs 128 vs 109 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX dove sharply but remains slightly bearish at 12.73 -1.39 with a range of 12.72-14.53! – first ‘12’ print and straight close in 12 sessions!

U.S. bond market weaker in the long end: 10 yr 2.59% -1/32; 30 yr 3.36% -5/16, the long TIP 1.11%! (low was 0.87%!) -5/8. Higher overnight: 2.58% +1/4; 30’s 3.34% +5/16; and long TIP 1.10% +1/64.

Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, one-month, to just 0.12% one year!!! Foreign bond yields slightly lower across the board (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.05% -1; UK 2.53% –; France 1.41% -2; Italy 2.41% -5; Spain 2.26% -8; Portugal 3.16% -3; Greece 5.67% -2 – after losing ground from the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.55% -2. Bonds remain ‘risky business’!

Gold closed slightly higher for a 2nd day at $1236.70 +$1.60; this, following a dive to another new low of $1225.30 – lowest since 1/9/14 – this marks it’s 21st straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 40 day at $1283, then the 200 day at $1285, then the 50 day at $1290 – tight and falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1237.10 +.40 in a $7 range.

Crude closed sharply higher but remains weak at $94.88 +$1.96 with a session high of $95.19 – both highest close since 9/2. Last Thursday’s low of $90.43 was lowest since 6/28/13! There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($96.41!!!), then the 50/200 day ($97.58/99.74) – 40/50 falling fast, and now 200 day falling! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is little changed in an ‘inside session’ at $94.98 +.11, near the high of $95.06.

Global equity markets higher except Japan: UK – vs -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.7%; France +0.7% vs -0.6% vs -0.2% vs – vs -0.8%; Germany +0.5% vs -0.6% vs +0.1% vs –0.2% vs -0.6% vs –0.3%; Japan -0.1% vs -0.2% vs closed vs +0.3% vs +0.8%; Hang Seng +1% vs -0.9% vs -1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.9%; Korea +1% vs +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.7%; India +0.5% vs -1.2%! vs -0.9% vs +0.2% vs –0.2%. U.S. equity futures modestly higher overnight. U.S. market opening higher: Dow -25; SPX +3.72; NDQ +2.80.

 

Some random thoughts:

…continuing to watch The Roosevelts – Part III, an amazing family. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, they had altruistic goals…we are reverting unfortunately…and due to the same party (Note Teddy was a Republican who quit the party in disgust and ran under the Progressive Movement – more recognized as the ‘Bull Moose’ party…he was soundly defeated by Taft running for his 2nd term.

Enough of this…TB had a mind-blowing experience yesterday: went for a stunt flight on a ‘perfect day’ with his friend, world-acclaimed Mike Wiskus! What a thrill…we did barrel rolls, several hammerhead stalls,and a 360! For added excitement, a flat tire on landing – and no, TB did not ‘lose his lunch’…for those in the Bay Area, he will be in San Francisco for Fleet Week along with the Blue Angels…thrilling! Definitely, an ‘E’ ticket ride – for those of you old enough to remember that!

Hope your day is as great as TB’s was yesterday!

TB

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9/16…equality in America?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “Anyone can do any amount of work, provided it isn’t the work he is supposed to be doing at that moment.” – Robert Benchley

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “All the arts we practice are apprenticeships. The big art it life.” – M.C. Richards

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks Fall With S&P Futures (?) as Treasuries Gain Before FOMC Meeting; Ruble Weak

*World’s Biggest Banks Said to Overhaul Trading Practices After FX Scandal – had no choice!

*Calpers Removing entier $4 Billion Invested in Hedge Funds, Citing Costs – low returns???

*Mega-Deal of $100 Billion No Sweat for Bankers Floating Idea Among Clients – only money!

*RBS Said to Dismiss Most of Team Overseeing Central European Debt Markets – !?!

*Assurant Promotes Ex-Bain Manager Colberg to CEO Amid Home-Insurance Slump

*Goldman Sachs Seeking to Raise $500 Million in First Sale of Islamic Debt – Allah willing!

*Ambev to Vale Missing World’s Biggest Stock Market Rally – Brazil lagging…

*Streaming ‘ House of Cards’ at 51,000 Coming Down to Private Jets by 2016 – oh joy!

*Tiger’s Robertson Back Chopra to Top His Hedge-Fund Empire After Stumbles

*Obama Dispatching 3,000 Troops, Medical Assistance to Stem Spread of Ebola

*Scotland Turns Crucible for U.K. Leaders Pledging to Save Union

*Dartmouth Posts 19.2% Investment Return in Year Through June – but: year ago just 12.1%

 

Monday’s Market Summary:

Bifurcated! The most heavily watched S&P 500 closed -0.1%; Dow 30 and Utilities +0.3% while Transports fell 0.4%. Not for the really bad news: Both Nasdaq’s and the Russell 2000 were off from 1-1.2%! Breadth on the Nasdaq 100 was -4:1! Volume fell back from 3.2B shares (highest since 8/70) to a below average 2.76B shares while NYSE shares traded on the floor declined from an ‘average’ 694M shares to a WEAK 591M! A/D’s and Breadth were negative for a 2nd day – especially Nasdaq issues! Now look: new 52 week highs plunged to just 59 from an already weak 101 while new lows rose sharply to a solid 185. VIX rose again…this time to well into bear territory at 14.12 +.81 – highest since 8/12 and options expiry is now just four days away!

Total NYSE Volume fell back to a below average of 2.76B shares from 3.2B (highest since 8/7!) vs 2.93B vs 2.86B vs 2.87B. Real NYSE Volume also fell to 591M shares from an average 694M (highest since 8/15’s 758M shares) vs 605M vs 608M vs 603M The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were negative for a 2nd day, especially the Nasdaq this time – note last five days! NYSE: -1.9x vs -3.8x vs +1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.3x; Nasdaq -3.2x! vs -2.1x vs +1.4x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE -1.6x vs -2.6x vs +1.9x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x; Nasdaq -4.8x!!! vs -1.5x vs +1.7x vs +2x vs -3.9x. New 52 Week Highs nearly halved to 59 from a weak 101 vs 113 vs 107 vs 121 – recent range is 146-580!!! New Lows jumped to a strong 185! vs 110 vs 104 vs 128 vs 109 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX now above 14! closing at 14.12 +.81 AND with a range of 13.54-14.19! – not even a ‘12’ print! 11th straight close above ‘12’!

U.S. bond market barely budged: 10 yr 2.59% +3/16; 30 yr 3.34% +1/16, the long TIP 1.08% (low was 0.87%!) unched-1-13/16!!! Higher overnight: 2.58% +1/8; 30’s 3.33% +3/16; and long TIP 1.08% +3/16.

Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, one-month, to 0.09% one year!!! Foreign bond yields mixed with PIIGS weaker (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.05% -1; UK 2.53% -1; France 1.43% –; Italy 2.49% +3; Spain 2.35% +1; Portugal 3.20% –; Greece 5.70% +8! – losing ground since the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.57% –. Bonds remain ‘risky business’!

Gold closed slightly higher but not before diving to another new low of $1225.30 – lowest since 1/9/14 – before closing at $1235.10 +$3.60 – this marks it’s 20th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 – and now the 40 day both at $1285!, then the 50 day at $1291 – falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1236.40 +$1.30.

Crude also closed slightly higher in a wide ranging session at $92.92 +.45. Thursday’s low of $90.43 was lowest since 6/28/13! There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($96.65!!!), then the 50/200 day ($97.75/99.93) – 40/50 falling fast now! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is little changed in an ‘inside session’ at $93.24 -.32.

Global equity markets weaker: UK -0.5% vs -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs –; France -0.6% vs -0.2% vs – vs -0.8% vs -0.1%; Germany -0.6% vs +0.1% vs –0.2% vs -0.6% vs –0.3%; Japan -0.2% vs closed vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.3%; Hang Seng -0.9% vs -1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.9%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs 0.3%; India -1.2%! vs -0.9% vs +0.2% vs –0.2% vs -0.8%. U.S. equity futures weak and near session lows: Dow -38! (range 45); SPX -4.10 (5!); NDQ -15! (17).

 

Some random thoughts:

…watched The Roosevelts again last night…and there may never have been a president as mercurial or complex as Teddy Roosevelt! He made Patton (‘old blood and guts’) look like a sissy. He was the first American to occupy the present White House, the first to invite a black man (and his wife and daughter) to dine with him – for which he received so much grief that while he and the man – Booker T. Washington – remained friends and confidantes, he never invited him again…such was the power of the slave movement – still! He gave birth however to the Red Dog Republicans as they switched their allegiance to the Dems…for effect! He was also the first sitting president to travel abroad, was responsible for the Panama Canal (with some skullduggery by the way), and the first American to be awarded – any – Nobel Prize. This list goes on!

He was admired by his cousin, FDR, who with fiancé Eleanor, attended his inauguration (his first as he succeeded the assassinated McKinley – and at it he made a statement that he would forever regret and which set a precedent: he would not seek a ‘third’ term since Washington only served two but he later regretted the remark since he did not serve two ‘complete’ terms (Johnson continued with this precedent, after the GOP furious over FDR’s third term got the ‘two term limit’ passed – which they regretted when Ike was president…history might have been different if he had run again).

The strength of both Roosevelts however was their belief in all individuals being treated fairly under the law…and Congress – something people like the Koch brothers and our biggest financial institutions have done their utmost to kill. They don’t want democracy, they want oligarchy and plutocracy. Is that what this country was founded on? If you think, so, pity you…pity us. Jefferson will be proved right yet, the ‘great experiment’ is being ruined by the few, the greedy, the wealthiest.

TB gets irate whenever he hears “I did it on my own” – no you did not! You had opportunities that you would have had nowhere else in the world, yet you begrudge those who work hard to make an honest living…could this be the reason the crime rate is high and we have the highest incarceraton rate of any industrialized nation? Meanwhile those who ‘cheat’ the people and the system get ‘handslaps’ that amount to a mere cost of doing business…are you proud of that?

Just a few gripes to think about while ignoring the plight of the poor.

Ah,…but TB digresses…have a great day…but think about our nations, your kids, future…

TB

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9/15/14…the world’s on fire!

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “What’s the difference between an optimist and a pessimist? An optimist created the airplane; a pessimist created the seat belts.”

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “To be prepared is half the victory.” – Miguel de Cervantes

This week’s economic calendar is full of important indicators. The highlight of the week will be the August PPI Tuesday and August CPI (Wednesday). We will also get September Empire State Manufacturing and August Industrial Production (Monday), Q2 Current Account (Wednesday), August Housing Starts and September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Thursday) and August Leading Indicators (Friday). In addition, the Federal Reserve FOMC will be meeting on September 16th & 17th with an announcement on the 17th. Courtesy of Economic Advisory Service

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Stocks in U.S. Fluctuate Amid Economic Data as Commodities Fall With Crude – options???

*Industrial Output ins U.S. Unexpectedly Falls for First Time Since January – heed!

*Alibaba Said to Plan Increasing IPO Pricing Amid Strong Investor Interest

*Dollar Rallies to 14-Month High as Commodities Fall; Ruble Slips to Record – !!!

*Bank of America Said to Hire Morgan Stanley China Investment-Bank Chairman

*Apple IPhone 6, Plus Pre-Orders Topped 4 Million Units in First 24 Hours

*New York Fed Empire Manufacturing Index Rises More Than Estimated to 27.54

*Microsoft to Buy Minecraft Game Creator Mojang for $2.5 Billion – good luck!

*Bond Market Dispels Inflation Alarm as Yellen Winds Down $3 Trillion of QE

*British Bonds Beat Treasuries as Scots Vote Sparks Speculation on BOE Rate

*Deutsche Bank Analyst Who Called Emerging-Market Losses to Start Own Firm

*RadioShack Advances While Cree Falls on Downgrade; U.S. Premarket Movers

*Fed Signals Last Call as the Six-Year Party Is About to End

*Regulator Lawsky Who Helped Snag BNP Pushes to Settle Cases on His Terms

*Coalition Against Islamic State Militants Confirms Military Aid for Iraq

*Sweden Thrown Into Turmoil as Anti-Immigrant Surge Leaves Hung Parliament

*Ukraine Clashes Prompt U.S.-Russia Meeting on Sidelines of Iraq Conference

*Rules Worsening Traffic Jams Put Sao Paulo Mayor in Fast Lane Out

*Goodell Is Urged to Quit as NFL Commisioner by Blumenthal Over Rice Video – just do it!

*Fed Will Do What It Can to Avoid ‘Language Tantrums’: Mohammed El-Erian

Friday’s Market Summary:

Not a good day, compounded by a solid increase in volume to 3.2B shares (694M on floor). Bad day on higher volume spells trouble…and we have options expiration this Friday! All indices in the red, led by Dow Utilities -1.8%, followed by the Russell 2000 -1%, S&P 500 and both Nasdaqs off 0.6%, Dow -0.4%, while Dow Transports closed a tad in the red. NYSE Financials off 0.3%. A/D’s and Breadth both negative – especially NYSE issues. New 52 week highs slightly weaker at 101, while new lows inched higher to 110. VIX rose, closing above 13 again at 13.31 +.51. That’s it!

Total NYSE Volume rose to 3.2B (highest since 8/7!) on the down day vs 2.93B vs 2.86B vs 2.87B vs 2.78B. Real NYSE Volume also rose to an average 694M shares (highest since 8/15’s 758M shares – a mixed session) vs 605M vs 608M vs 603M vs 602M The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were negative, especially NYSE: NYSE: -3.8x vs +1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.3x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq -2.1x vs +1.4x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x vs +1.3x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE -2.6x vs +1.9x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x vs -1.9x; Nasdaq -1.5x vs +1.7x vs +2x vs -3.9x vs +1.5x. New 52 Week Highs lower at a weak 101 vs 113 vs 107 vs 121 vs 225 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows slightly higher at 110 vs 104 vs 128 vs 109 vs 71 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX back above 13 closing a t13.31 +.51 BUT with a range of 12.85-14.27! 10th straight close above ‘12’!

U.S. bond market plunged ahead of FOMC: 10 yr 2.59% +3/16; 30 yr 3.34% -1-3/16, the long TIP 1.08%! (low was 0.87%!) -1-13/16!!! Coming back overnight: 2.59% +3/16; 30’s 3.32% +7/16; and long TIP 1.06% +5/8.

Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, on-month, to 0.09% one year!!! Foreign bond yields little changed and mixed after Friday’s plunge (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.06% +2; UK 2.53% –; France 1.42% -1; Italy 2.46% –; Spain 2.33% -1; Portugal 3.20% -1; Greece 5.61% +1 – but still not far from the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.57% –. Bonds are ‘risky business’!

Gold closed weak yet again at $1231.50 -$7.50 – and worse with another new intraday low of $1228.10 intraday: lowest since 1/10/14! – this marks it’s 19th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day ($1285), then the 40/50 day at $1287-1293 – falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher at $1235.40 +$3.90, but only after putting in another new low of $1226.30, lowest since 1/9!

Crude closed lower after a failed rally attempt at $92.27 – before closing higher at a still weak $92.83 +$1.16. Thursday’s low of $90.43 was lowest since 6/28/13! There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($96.91!!!), then the 50/200 day ($97.97/99.77) – 40/50 falling fast now! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it tested Thursday’s low with a $90.63 but is now $91.88 -.39.

 

Global equity markets mixed, Hong Kong weak, Japan closed: UK -0.1% vs +0.3% vs -0.7% vs – vs –; France -0.2% vs – vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.2%; Germany +0.1% vs –0.2% vs -0.6% vs –0.3% vs -0.3%; Japan closed vs +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.3%; Hang Seng -1%! vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.9% vs closed; Korea -0.3% vs +0.4% vs -0.7% vs 0.3% vs closed; India -0.9% vs +0.2% vs –0.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.2%.. U.S. equity futures gapped down big on the open and plunged before coming back to a slight positive, but now back in the red 61 points on the Dow: Dow -11 (range 70!); SPX -1.70 (9!); NDQ -9.50 (21). U.S. stock market opened a tad higher than declined on Industrial Production: Dow -22; S&P -3; NDQ -28; Trans -25; Utilities +2.

 

Some random thoughts:

We didn’t start the fire,
It was always burning
Since the world’s been turning.
We didn’t start the fire,
No we didn’t light it
But we tried to fight it.

– written and sung by Billy Joel.

…listening to the talk shows this weekend was fruitless and confusing…only one that gave us anything was Fareed Zacharia 360 – and it looks bad! He had Henry Kissinger on who put some of the blame on Obama for the troop withdrawal from Iraq – but wait, didn’t Dubya set the stage for that? You betcha. He spared no words for GOP loudmouth Dick Cheney – a man whose time has ‘went’!

What amazes me is, as Henry the K said, they have the funds and they don’t need to beat us, just keep us hopping all over the Middle East, fomenting more hatred for the U.S. Why so amazing? Isn’t that how WE beat the Brits in 1776? The best trained army in the world…by a bunch of clumsy fools. Oh, and we must have forgotten Viet Nam too! Dubya certainly forgot the ‘guns and butter’ story…and worse…not wanting to ‘tax and spend’ he cut taxes and spent…both domestically and on the two wars! What fools we are! As if that weren’t enough, the GOP is screaming for more war…some even for ‘boots on the ground’. Wake up, stupid American voter!

Oh, forgot…your vote doesn’t count.

Fareed had an interesting stat: Behind the U.S. which country has the largest army? France? Germany? Italy? Turkey? Correct answer is Turkey…with over 600,000 and they need it!

If you aren’t watching Ken Burns’ ‘The Roosevelts’, be sure to watch the repeats…fascinating…oh, and not only was Teddy a ‘cowboy’ he was downright dangerous. In another country, another time, he would have been a dictator and not a benevolent one.!

Have a great week!

TB

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9/12/14…is it ok to carry a ‘pistorius’?

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “There are three ages of man: youth, middle age, and “Gee, you look good.” – Red Skelton

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “The truth is always the strongest argument.” – Sophocles…yes, but Aesop says, “the fight is not always to the strong, nor the race to the swift…”, that’s how the turtle beat the hare!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Alibaba Said to Plan Closing Books Early After IPO Covered at All Prices – the forty thieves?

*Recession Threat Ignored in Europe With Profit Revisions Turning Positive – not to TB!

*Government Bonds Decline on U.S. Rate Outlook (a good reason), While Ruble Slips to Record

*Pound Seen Tumbling as Much as 10% on a Scottish Vote for Independence – uisge beatha

*Draghi Says Investment Revival Needs Both Reform Implementation, Stimulus – do tell!

*Barclays Appoints McFarlane Chairman After Leading Turnaround at Aviva – a Scot?

*Microsoft’s Nadella Chases Minecraft in Push to Get Software on any Device – fools!

*Economic Recovery Seen Abiding at Goldman Sachs Even as Rates Start Rising – abiding???

*Darden Investor Tells Olive Garden to Ease Up on Bread, Push More alcohol – uh huh, got it

*Brazil Traders Get Whipsawed as Interest-Rate Volatility Soars Before Vote

*Europe’s Cheapest Cars Reviving Romanian Economy 25 Years After Communism – Yugo?

*Ray Rice Valentine’s Day Punch Ignites Uproar Amid bungled Probe by FBI – it should!

*Scotland Independence Push Loses Ground as’ No’ Side Leads in Latest Poll – it ain’t over till…

*Pistorius Freed on Bail After Manslaughter Verdict in Death of Girlfriend – see below!

*War-Gaming for Scotland’s Exit as U.K. Contingency Plans May Turn Reality – or maybe not

*Not Pro-Bono: Apple’s Album Giveaway Has ITunes Customers Asking ‘U2 Who?’ – LMAO!

*Ian Paisley, Church Leader Who Led Northern Ireland Government, Dies at 88 – not Brad!  

 

Thursday’s Market Summary:

Market started out in the hole but came out of – sort of! At the end of the day Dow Utilities wond the session (despite bonds not holding their overnight gains), rising a respectable 0.9% – more than double the prior day’s loss! Next came Dow Transports +0.4%, while the rest were a mixed bag with Dow 30 and NDQ 100 both -0.1%, and the rest up 0.1-0.2%. Volume was higher but still couldn’t even touch 3B shares. Nothing else to comment on except the most active, as usual, BofA +1.3% – while NYSE Financials were flat (?), but: NYSE Brokers +0.9%; KBW and Nasdaq Banks both +0.5%. A/D’s and Breadth were slightly positive but the last two days didn’t equal the prior negative. New 52 week highs slightly higher at a still weak 113, while new lows fell back to 104 from 128 (high!). VIX slightly lower again but the range was still broad and low was just 12.66 while the session high dropped from 14.66 to a still bear-leaning 13.67. Options expiry next week.

Total NYSE Volume still doing nothing at 2.93B shares vs 2.86B vs 2.87B vs 2.78B vs 2.81B vs 3.06B vs 2.77B. Real NYSE Volume also steady at 605M shares vs 608M vs 603M vs 602M vs 610M vs 607M vs 616M – now THAT’S stable…and boring! The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares (highly unusual for a monthend), but it was Labor Day weekend – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 696M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were slightly positive again, but: NYSE: +1.3x vs +1.1x vs -3.3x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq +1.4x vs +1.6x vs -3.2x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE +1.9x vs +1.2x vs -3.4x vs -1.9x vs +1.6x; Nasdaq +1.7x vs +2x vs -3.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.7. New 52 Week Highs stable at a weak 113 vs 107 vs 121 vs 225 vs 164 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows fell back to 104 vs 128 vs 109 vs 71 vs 87 – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX a tad lower at 12.80 -.08, its 9th straight close above ‘12’. Range slipped from Wednesday’s high of 14.66 to 12.66-13.67.

U.S. bond market little changed after rallying in the overnight session: 10 yr 2.55% -1/16; 30 yr 3.28% -1/16, the long TIP 1.01% (low was 0.87%!) +1/4. Weaker overnight: 2.56% -1/8; 30’s 3.30% -5/16; and long TIP 1.03% -3/8.

Libor update: 0.235% 3 mos.; 0.331% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills range from ZERO, on-month, to 0.09% one year!!! Foreign bond yields slightly higher – like U.S. rally faded into close yesterday (benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.06% +2; UK 2.52% +2; France 1.41% +2; Italy 2.45% -1; Spain 2.34% +2; Portugal 3.19% -3; Greece 5.55% +3 – waffling near the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.57% +1. Bonds are ‘risky business’ here!

Gold closed weak again at $1239.00 -$6.30 – but this belies a thumping to $1234.50 intraday: lowest since 1/23/14! – this marks it’s 18th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day ($1285), now climbing, then the 40/50 day at $1289-1295 – falling! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it put in another new low of $1232.80 before bouncing (?) back to $1238.80 -.20.

Crude took a header yet again, falling to $90.43 – lowest since 6/28/13 – before closing higher at a still weak $92.83 +$1.16. There have been SEVENTEEN handles since peaking at $107.73 on June 20th. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($97.19), then the 50/200 day ($98.23/99.75) – all falling fast now! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it has traded in a narrow range but is now $93.09.26 in a very narrow range

Global equity markets mixed: UK +0.3% vs -0.7% vs – vs – vs -0.9%; France – vs -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5%; Germany –0.2% vs -0.6% vs –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2%; Japan +0.3% vs +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.2%; Hang Seng -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -1.9% vs closed vs -0.2%; Korea +0.4% vs -0.7% vs 0.3% vs closed for 2 days; India +0.2% vs –0.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%!. U.S. equity futures little changed: Dow — (range 21); SPX -0.10 (2.5!); NDQ -0.75? (2!).

 

Some random thoughts:

…can you conjugate the word Pistol? Pistol, Pistoff, Pistorius. Well, they finally got him…sort of…manslaughter…here it would have likely been the higher 2nd degree since all that was lacking was premeditation (or was it?)…manslaughter is more like ‘it just happened’. So one could say, if one wanted to…he got away with murder. Not sure what sentence will be but differences in the two systems are highlighted: there one entrusts their fate to a juror – in this case a woman, which could have worked for or against him; here a jury of twelve ‘upstanding’ individuals…some bored seniors looking for excitement, and others still ‘pistoff’ that they had to serve. Would the women have sympathized with him due to his clean-cut good looks, or loathed him? What about the men? Dunno…

In case you didn’t notice, TB is tired of the global mess…should have seen that yesterday. Soooo…color him ‘pistoff’.

Now get out of here and enjoy your weekend…afterall, we have options expiry next Friday! 47 degrees in Minneapolis! Brrrr.

TB

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9/11/14…a day of infamy…and where we are now…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “It makes no difference what it is, a woman will buy anything she thinks the store is losing on.” – Kin Hubbard

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “If you want to understand today, you have to search yesterday.”

– Pearl S. Buck…I don’t get it?

 

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*First-Time Unemployment Claims in U.S. Climbed to Two-Month High Last Week

*RBS Joins Lloyds in Financial-Services Exodus If Scots Choose Independence – hmmm

*Ruble Slides on Russia Sanctions as Treasuries Rise, Commodities Retreat – rise and fall…

*Credit Agricole Said to Near Settlement in U.S. Sanctions Investigations

*Clues to Cynk’s Penny-Stock Mystery Found in Belize Money-Laundering Case

*RadioShack Says It’s Working With Creditors to Boost Cash as Losses Mount –hadn’t heard that

*Nine Out of Ten Hedge Fund Managers Are Overpaid With Fees, Unigestion Says – just nine?

*Scotland Claiming Bulk of Britain’s Oil in 40-Year Drive for Independence

*Tech Boom Turns Chicago Skid Row Into Surging Office Market – from rags to riches?

*Argentine Lower House Passes Bill to Pay Debt locally to Avoid U.S. Ruling

*Scotch Whisky Producers Say Single Malt Tastes Better in a Single Country – taxes is that it?

*Our Eight-Year Old Analyst Says Minecraft Is just Way Cool – but is Microsoft stupid? Are we in a game bubble? As a shareholder, do you think they should pay $2+ billion – for a fad? YES!!!

Minecraft’s draw? It isn’t just a game…you can create anything you want…just as with a pen!

 

Wednesday’s Market Summary:

 The rally that left Dow Transports behind…it did, and the other ytd leader Dow Utilities, +0.1% and -0.4% respectively. The winners were the two Nasdaqs – up 0.8%$ the pair…but before you put in your orders, this was a direct offset to Wednesday’ decline. The rest were up 0.3% (Dow 30) to 0.6% (Russell 2000). Volume was stagnant (not good on a rally); A/D’s and Breadth were positive but only half the negatives the prior session. New 52 week highs became even scarcer falling to 107 vs 121 vs 225 (a good number), while new lows rose again to 128 (high!) from 109 back from a weak 71! VIX however declined but just to 12.88 just .02 above the session low…but the intraday high was a bearish 14.66!

The Apple saga continues. This from yesterday: they made their big announcement and rallied – initially…remember it has been weak since hitting a record high of $103.74 on Sept. 2, falling to $98.12. THEN, because of their new ‘bigger’ IPhone the stock surged to $103.08 intraday – spitting distance from the record high, only to plunge to a new low of $96.14- lowest since 8/12 before coming back to close at $98.97 – definitely an ‘E’ ticket ride! Yesterday was more of the same: opened at $98.01, slipped back to $97.76 before climbing to $101.11, closing just 10 cents below. Remember…the new watch won’t be available until next year AND has to be near an IPhone to work! So much for Dick Tracy’s 2-way wrist radio! Who need it/them?

Oh and Microsoft rose to a record high of $46.94 and closed just 18 cents lower. On what, you ask? Oh, they are trying to buy a video gamer, Minecraft for $2 billion and change…as one rag said: buy like it’s 2006 all over again…TB would say like its 1998 all over again…you know, the dotcom boom/bust…er…bubble! What are they thinking? Dunno, but they may be late in the game…sorry, early in the bust, as Zynga…you do remember that one…peaked at $5.89 in March and is around $3 now. THAT IPO was at $11 on 12/16/11, traded up to $11.50, then fell to $7.97 less than a month later. From there it climbed back to $15.91 a year later, then down again to $2.09, and has traded no higher than $6 since then. Last is $2.99. Kids may know games but do they know or care about finance? Doubtful since they rank 12th in financial literacy…bet the same goes for adults! Soooo…do you want to go ‘all in’ on MSFT’s folly? Not TB!

Total NYSE Volume still doing nothing at 2.86B shares vs 2.87B vs 2.78B vs 2.81B vs 3.06B vs 2.77B. Real NYSE Volume also steady at 608M shares vs 603M vs 602M vs 610M vs 607M vs 616M vs 593M vs 617M from the new 12-month low of 491M. The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares (highly unusual for a monthend), but it was Labor Day weekend – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 649M shares, and slipping ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were weak but positive: NYSE: +1.1x vs -3.3x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x vs -2x; Nasdaq +1.6x vs -3.2x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.6x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE +1.2x vs -3.4x vs -1.9x vs +1.6x vs -1.6x; Nasdaq +2x vs -3.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.7x vs -1.3x. New 52 Week Highs slipped to 107 vs 121 vs 225 vs 164 vs 265 vs 374 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows rose again to a strong 128 vs 109 vs 71 vs 87 vs 80 vs 56 vs 41 vs 52 vs 26! – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX fell back to 12.88 -.62, its 8th straight close above ‘12’. Look at the range though: 1286-14.66! Options expiry a week from tomorrow!

U.S. bond market was weaker for a 4th session: 10 yr 2.54% -5/16; 30 yr 3.27% -3/4, the long TIP 1.02% (low was 0.87%!) -1-1/8!!! Rallying on new Russian sanctions overnight: 2.51% +5/16; 30’s 3.24% +9/16; and long TIP 0.99%! +13/16.

Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.329% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills back at ZERO, on-month, where they went following the ECB rate cut, and yield from 0.00% to 0.09% out to one year!!! Foreign bond yields mixed – Greece lower (note: benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.02% -2; UK 2.49% -2; France 1.37% +1; Italy 2.42% +2; Spain 2.28% +2; Portugal 3.19% –; Greece 5.48% -4 – waffling near the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.56% +2. Bonds are ‘risky business’ here!

Gold closed a tad lower at $1245.30 -$3.20 in a nothing session a day after falling to $1247.20, lowest since 6/10 – this marks it’s 17th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day $1285 (now climbing), then the 40/50 day at $1291-1297! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is barely changed in a narrow range at $1245.60 +.30.

Crude took a header again, falling to $91.67 – lowest since 1/9/14 – before closing weak for a fifth day at $91.67 -$1.08. There have been FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. The record high of $147.27 was on 9/30/08, the low since on 12/30/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($97.39), then the 50/200 day ($98.47/99.75) – all falling fast now! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it plunged to yet another new low of $90.43!!! its lowest since 6/28/13 before rebounding somewhat to $90.87 -.80!

Global equity markets weak, ex-Japan: UK -0.7% vs – vs – vs -0.9% vs -0.6%; France -0.8% vs -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs -0.5%; Germany -0.6% vs –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.3%; Japan +0.8% vs -0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.1%; Hang Seng -0.2% vs -1.9% vs closed vs -0.2% vs -0.2%; Korea -0.7% vs 0.3% vs closed for 2 days vs -0.3%; India –0.2% vs -0.8% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%! vs -0.2% vs -0.2%. U.S. equity futures slightly weak and gapped down on the open: Dow -74 (range 81); SPX -8.10 (9); NDQ n/a?.

 

Some random thoughts:

“So those who are last now will be first then, and those who are first will be last.” – Mathew 20:16. Not like TB to quote the Bible but heard this recently and had to check from whence it came. Then came the Ten Commandments (aka Exodus 20): “Thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s house, thou shalt not covet thy neighbour’s wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor any thing that is thy neighbour’s.” TB always got hung up on why you would covet his ‘ass’? Again, dunno.

Lastly, there are the Beatitudes, of which there are eight…must have run out of time: “Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.” – ‘poor’ TB gets but in spirit? Does that mean if you are a slimeball but coincidentally rich you get the bounty? Dunno, requires further thought.

Anyone recall the late Reverend Ike? A pioneer televangelist who preached riches…along with you casting your bread upon his waters so it can come back ten fold…but don’t they all preach that? Oral Roberts, Jim Baker (who can forget Tammy Fay?). Here is TB’s fav: If you want your pie in the sky when you die, I’m not your guy but if you want your Cadillac now…praise the lord (paraphrased but you get the gist).

On the other hand if you are the Kochs, or Waltons, or Steve Schwarzman, or a host of others do you really care? Most likely not.

As for Obama’s speech last night…same old, same old: he speaks with authority but we no longer hang on the words…they are meaningless. BUT folks, in case you think TB wants him out…how about John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, Ted Cruz, oh and the affable John McCain (arguably the only man who would have gotten us into Afghanistan and Iraq sooner. Or how about Loser Numero Uno, Dick Cheney, who, now that daughter Liz lost on her bid for a Senate seat (too much like dear old dad, and clones), can’t stop flapping his jowls as if he knows what to do? Why if he were ‘king’, he and sidekick and former mentor Donald Rumsfeld would have in wars on at least four fronts! Shut up, Dick! We don’t need you…thought you figured that out by now.

Well, at least we now have a strategy…you doubt this? It’s true…Obama said so! Hope he isn’t following the GOP motto: do something…even if it’s wrong, do something! (Ok, so it wasn’t the GOP, it was a fire captain TB used to work with…Mickey Foster…may he rest in peace…no longer wielding his axe when he arrived on the scene.

 

Enjoy your day and remember, Blessed are the ——- for they shall —— (fill in the blanks)…and take time out to have fun!

TB

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9/10/14…Obama the pariah…

Quote of the Day from the Friars Club Encyclopedia of Jokes: “There are two things we’re sure of: death and taxes. Now, if only we could get them in that order.” – Joey Adams

Bloomberg Quote of the Day: “Imagination is a poor substitute for experience.” – Havelock Ellis – but where would we be without it? Too bad we can’t ask Steve Jobs!

Bloomberg Top Stories:

*Dollar General Gets Hostile With $9.1 Billion Offer to Buy Family Dollar – taking it to sharholders!

*Santander Chairman Botin, Who Built Bank Into Europe’s No. 2, Dies at 79

*Bonds in Europe Decline As Dollar Rallies on Rate Bets; Stocks Pare Losses

*Fed Weighs Change to Interest Rate Guidance in Quest for More Flexibility

*Apple Under Tim Cook Takes Shape With Bigger IPhones, New Smartwatch – who needs ‘em?

*Fiat CEO Marchionne Tightens Grip on Ferrari as Wall Street Debut Looms

*Ex-BGC Broker Loses Bullying Case as Judge Says He Gave as Good as He Got

*How to Profit From ‘Scotsie 100’ Stocks If Scotland Votes for Independence

*Activision Blizzard’s Destiny Game Has Sales of $500 Million on First Day

*Barclays Hires Ex-Goldman Banker Eldabag as Middle East Investment Co-Head

*Too-Goat-to Be-True Funds Spur $11 Billon Ponzi-Scheme Crackdown in India

*Hugo Chavez’s Absence Felt on Wall Street Bond Desks Recalling 16% Returns

*Ukraine’s Poroshenko Reports Russian Troop Pullback as EU Mulls Sanctions

*Kerry Seeks to Bolster New Iraq Government With Surprise Visit to Baghdad

*Europeans once Keen on Obama Now Desert Him, Led by Germans, Survey Shows

*Juncker Awards EU Top Positions in France, U.K. in Political Balancing Act

 

Tuesday’s Market Summary:

TB warned you of the ‘fragility’ of the rally simply based on volume and the S&P 500. All indices were down with co-‘goats’ Russell 2000 and Dow Utilities both -1.2% -strange bedfellows, no? The rest were off from 0.6%-0.9%…on stagnant volume, VERY WEAK A/D’s and Breadth, and a sharp drop in new 52 week highs while new lows increased. VIX also rose closing above 13 at 13.51 – first time since 8/12…session high was 13.91!!!

Apple makes its big announcement and rallies…remember it has been weak since hitting a record high of $103.74 on Sept. 2, falling to $98.12. THEN, yesterday they announce their new ‘bigger’ IPhone and the stock surged to $103.08 intraday – spitting distance from the record high, only to plunge to a new low of $96.14- lowest since 8/12 before coming back to close at $98.97 – definitely an ‘E’ ticket ride! Why? Well…the new watch won’t be available until next year AND has to be near an IPhone to work! So much for Dick Tracy’s 2-way wrist radio! Who need it/them?

NYSE VOLUME at another ‘dull’ 2.87B shares while those traded on the NYSE floor remained lethargic at 603M shares! A/D’s and Breadth were very negative…all more than 3x!, while new 52 week highs were nearly halved to 121 vs 225 vs 164 while new lows rose to a solid 109 vs 71. VIX rose to 13.51 +.85, first close above 13 since 8/15 and first close above since 8/12!

NYSE VOLUME at another ‘dull’ 2.87B shares while those traded on the NYSE floor remained lethargic at 603M shares! A/D’s and Breadth were very negative…all more than 3x!, while new 52 week highs were nearly halved to 121 vs 225 vs 164 while new lows rose to a solid 109 vs 71. VIX rose to 13.51 +.85, first close above 13 since 8/15 and first close above since 8/12!12 for 6:7 sessions – options expiry is almost two weeks away…caution!

Total NYSE Volume still doing nothing at 2.87B shares vs 2.78B vs 2.81B vs 3.06B vs 2.77B. Real NYSE Volume steady at 603M shares vs 602M vs 610M vs 607M vs 616M vs 593M vs 617M from the new 12-month low of 491M. The average for the week ended 8/29 was 522M shares (highly unusual for a monthend), but it was Labor Day weekend – a new 2014 low – average volume at the closing bell was also a new low for the year of 387M shares! Note that the average for the final week of 2013 was 424M! There have been just four sessions above 800M since 4/28! The 12-month average is a historically weak 697M shares. Since 4/30 the average volume has been just 650M shares ranging from 517M to 927B….12 month high is 2.06B shares on 9/20/13!

A/D’s were very negative: NYSE: -3.3x vs -1.6x vs +1.6x vs -2x vs -1.1x; Nasdaq -3.2x vs +1.3x vs +1.2x vs -1.6x vs -1.8x. Breadth was similar:: NYSE -3.4x vs -1.9x vs +1.6x vs -1.6x vs -1.1x; Nasdaq -3.9x vs +1.5x vs +1.7x vs -1.3x vs -1.4x. New 52 Week Highs were halved to 121 vs 225 vs 164 vs 265 vs 374 – recent range is 46-580!!! New Lows rose to a solid 109 vs 71 vs 87 vs 80 vs 56 vs 41 vs 52 vs 26! – recent range is 24-260! S&P VIX rose to 13.51 +.85, its 7th straight close above ‘12’ and highest since 8/12 with a range of 1270-13.91!

U.S. bond market was slightly weaker for a 3rd session: 10 yr 2.50% -1/4; 30 yr 3.23% -1/16, the long TIP 0.97% -3/8. Weaker again overnight: 2.53% -1/4; 30’s 3.27% -5/8; and long TIP 1.02% -15/16.

Libor update: 0.234% 3 mos.; 0.326% 6 mos., both remain near their record lows, set recently: 0.222% and 0.320% respectively! NOTE the Fed Funds rate has averaged 0.09% since 5/22/13 and remains 0.08%-0.10%, where it has been for weeks! T-Bills back above ZERO where they went following the ECB rate cut, and now yield from 0.01+0.09% out to one year!!! Foreign bond yields higher for a 2nd day – especially PIIGSr plunging Friday afternoon following U.S. payrolls (note: benchmark is the 10yrs): Germany 1.06% +2; UK 2.50% +2; France 1.39% +4; Italy 2.42% +7; Spain 2.28% +9!; Portugal 3.20% +6; Greece 5.58% +10! – coming back from the recovery low: 5.42%; Crisis high: 12.57%. Japan: 0.54% +1. Bonds are dangerous here!

Gold broke from its lethargy falling again to $1247.20, lowest since 6/10, and closed almost at it at $1247.30 -$7.00 – this marks it’s 16th straight sub-$1300 close. It is way below the 40/50 and 200 day m/a’s. 7/17’s session high was $1346.60, highest since March 19th!!! 6/9’s $1240.20 was lowest since 1/31/14!!! RES is the 200 day $1248, then the 40/50 day at $1292-1299! Recent high was $1392.60 on 3/17, highest high since 9/4/13. Jan. 2’s low was $1181.40 – A MULTI-DECADE LOW!!! Overnight it is slightly higher in an insides session at $1249.40 +.90.

Crude closed little changed and weak for a fourth day at $92.75 +.09 – a day after setting a new recent low of $91.80, lowest since 2/5/14. There have been FOURTEEN handles since 6/30! 7/22’s high was $105.20, highest since 7/2. 7/15’s session low was $90.01 – lowest since 3/21. 6/20’s run to $107.73 was highest since 9/19/13 (a huge down session which put it in freefall. 3/2’s session low was $97.37, lowest since 2/4! 1/14’s low was worst since 5/2/13: $91.24! The record high of $114.83 was on 5/2/11, the low since on 10/4/11 is $74.95: $93.60 is the midpoint!!! Recent rally high and close are $110.70 and $110.53 respectively. RES at the 40 day ($97.60!), then the 50/200 day ($98.74/99.77) – 40/50’s still falling! The range is $85.61-$112.24 since 3/1/12. Overnight it is slightly lower at $92.16 -.56, an inside day.

Global European equity markets mostly lower: UK – vs – vs -0.9% vs -0.6% vs +0.4%; France -0.1% vs -0.2% vs -0.5% vs -0.5% vs +1.5% vs +1.3%; Germany –0.3% vs -0.3% vs -0.2% vs -0.3% vs +0.8% vs +1.4%; Japan +0.3% vs +0.3% vs +0.2% vs -0.1% vs -0.3%; Hang Seng -1.9%! vs closed vs -0.2% vs -0.2% vs -0.1% vs +2.3%; Korea -0.3% vs closed for 2 days vs -0.3% vs +0.3%; India -0.8% vs -0.2% vs +1.1%! vs -0.2% vs -0.2%. U.S. equity futures slightly weaker: Dow -18 (range 52); SPX -1.90 (6); NDQ -0.75 (16). U.sS. stock market opening lower…

 

Some random thoughts:

…poor ole Obama…didn’t have enough substance…lack of strategy…desire to avoid conflict…doesn’t trust the military and chooses to listen to his close advisors over more experienced ones…like he did with Defense Secretary Gates. Now he is paying a price, as the headline above shows…abandoned by foreign governments, led by the Germans after the spying scandal. His own party deserting him in hopes of not losing the Senate or House seats.

Reminds me of the Aesop fable about the old man, his son, and their ass. Won’t repeat the whole story but the moral was: if you try to please everyone, you end up pleasing no one. So vote GOP…and see what that gets you!

Have a great day…if you can…

TB

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